RSS FeedsWinter of 2004-05 Review: A Season of Extremes
"Wild, Wide-Ranging, Wacky Winter" Lives Up To Expectations
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI
May 10th, 2004
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Note: Dark red and italicized text is taken directly from the 2004-05 Winter Outlook issued in October, 2004.
TEMPERATURES: NORMAL?
When talking with a variety of people about this past winter, the general reaction seen when it's stated it was a "normal winter" temperature-wise, is one of surprise. That's right, officially when it was all said and done, overall temperatures for the winter of 2004-05 (Dec-Feb) did indeed average at or near normal. However, it is the way we arrived at that point that is the important fact about this past winter, and that was by way of frequent wide swings in temperatures. This just proves that sometimes statistics do not tell the whole story. Therefore, it could be said that this past winter's average temperatures across Southeast Lower Michigan were the "average of the extremes". This does not necessary mean there were an abundance of record highs and lows, it just that wide swings in temperatures were more common and frequent. These temperature swings were most noteworthy in both December and January (a fact that was explored and written about in the January Monthly Climate Summaries for Southeast Lower Michigan). Since Detroit has the longest climate base, it was especially interesting when comparing the range of the Detroit's monthly record temperatures with that of the actual temperatures for both December and January. The following was taken from Detroit's January monthly climate write-up...
"In both January and December, temperatures averaged above normal the first half of the month and below normal the second half. Record highs and lows were flirted with (though none were officially established at Detroit) on the more extreme days during each month with the wide temperature swings. Temperatures ranges for Detroit were 59 to -4 in December and 58 to -2 in January. Further away from urban heat island (and more representative) in Southeast Lower Michigan, lows both months fell between -5 to -15 (locally lower) at many locations on the coldest of days. Therefore, temperature ranges for both months have been quite wide, from near 60 to at least -5 to -15, or around 70 degrees. As an interesting comparison, the full range of record temperatures for January is really not that much wider, ranging from 67 to -21, and this is for 135 Januaries not just one!
PRECIPITATION: WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALL THREE CITIES PLACE IN THE TOP 20 WETTEST WINTERS IN THE SAME SEASON, LAST SEEN IN THE STRONG EL NIÑO WINTER OF 1997-98A nearly constant parade of storm systems this past winter season brought a surplus of both rain and snow to the entire region. This storm parade was busy enough to elevate all three cities up into the top twenty wettest winters list. The last time all three cities placed in the top twenty wettest winters was back during the very mild winter of 1997-98, when a strong El Niño dominated the weather picture and brought a mild, wet winter to the region.
| LOCATION | 2004-05 PRECIP | RANKING | 1997-98 RANKING |
| Detroit | 9.33" | 10th (in 125 years) | 8.27"/20TH |
| Flint | 7.48" | 7th (in 62 years) | 6.01"/19TH |
| Saginaw | 7.87" | 10th (in 105 years) | 7.61"/12TH |
As you can see, while the Winter of 1997-98 was wet, it was not nearly as wet as this past winter. Therefore, when was the last time a winter was as wet or wetter than 2004-05 you might ask?
| LOCATION | 2004-05 PRECIP | LAST WETTER WINTER | ||
| Detroit | 9.33" | 9.36" | 1984-85 | 9TH |
| Flint | 7.48" | 8.16" | 2000-1 | 14TH |
| Saginaw | 7.87" | 11.95" | 1996-97 | 1ST |
Note: Saginaw received it wettest winter on record just a year before the above 1997-98 El Niño wet winter.
SNOWFALL: WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN (WHEN ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES RANKINGS ARE AVERAGED TOGETHER)While any one of the three cities (DTW/FNT/MBS) have had higher snowfall amounts in a winter, never have all three cities placed this high up in the snowiest winters list in the same season. Quite a record indeed and therefore, it could be said that during this past winter all of Southeast Lower Michigan "shared in the wealth"! The only saving grace (and why we didn't become snowbound) was indeed, the strongly fluctuating temperatures which permitted routine snowmelt.
It must be mentioned, however, that the snow season of 1966-67 had a slightly higher snow average with an average of 72.1" (DTW-FNT-MBS) as opposed to the 70.7" average this past winter. While Flint and Saginaw placed second and first for snowiest winter in 1966-67 with 78.6" and 87.2" respectively, Detroit did not even make the top 20 snowiest list with just 50.6". If White Lake's snowfall is also included in this year's average, the average snowfall jumps to 78.3"
THE LAST TIME THIS MUCH (OR MORE) SNOW FELL IN A SNOW SEASON:
| LOCATION | 2004-05 SNOWFALL | SNOWIEST RANKING | LAST TIME SNOW/SEASON/RANKING | ||
| Detroit | 63.7" | 7th (in 125 years) | 74.0" | 1981-82 | 3rd |
| Flint | 73.0" | 5th (in 62 years) | 76.6" | 1975-76 | 3rd |
| Saginaw | 75.5" | 3rd (in 105 years) | 83.5" | 1951-52 | 2nd |
While temperatures oscillated significantly above and below the normal averages for the winter and thus, produced a "normal" temperature picture for the winter, the other predominant trait of the Winter of 2004-05 was the "extreme" storminess which resulted in the heaviest snowfalls on record (when all three cities are combined).
The last time there was enough snowfall across Southeast Lower Michigan to put the three major climate cities (Detroit/Flint/Saginaw) in the top 20 snowiest seasons list was back in 1977-78 (This season was also one of the analogue winters included in our Winter Outlook). While Detroit's snowfall this season just managed to exceed the 1977-78 total, snowfalls at both Flint and Saginaw were clearly much higher this past snow season. (Oddly enough, since the snow season of 1977-78 held the bottom 20th position for snowiest season at both Flint and Saginaw, the new placement of the 2004-05 snow season, eliminated 1977-78 from the 20 snowiest seasons list for both cities).
| 2004-2005 | 1977-78 | ||
| LOCATION | SNOWFALL | SNOWIEST RANKING | SNOW/RANKING |
| Detroit | 63.7" | 7th (in 125 years) | 61.7"/8th |
| Flint | 73.0" | 5th (in 62 years) | 50.6"/20th |
| Saginaw | 75.5" | 3rd (in 105 years) | 55.6"/20th |
All areas across Southeast Lower Michigan saw well above normal snowfall and not only for the season but on a monthly basis as well...and right through April! And if that wasn't enough, much of the region (from Detroit north into the Thumb Region) started out receiving that above normal snow back in November. The snow this past November was a direct result of an Eastern Great Lakes Low Pressure System, one of many this winter. This type of storm center brought the "White Thanksgiving" to much of area. The chance of above normal snow early in the season was also fairly strongly suggested by the previous winters data used for the Outlook and here is that excerpt...
"As far as snow, note below the Novembers in the study that had measurable (and above normal) snowfalls at Detroit.
(Fig - 2)
NOVEMBER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN RESEARCHED WINTERS AT DETROIT
Normal Snowfall (1971-2000) in November: 2.7"
MONTH/YR SNOWFALL Nov 1885 0.5" NOV 1911 7.0" * NOV 1925 7.8" * (2.0 in October) NOV 1931 0.7" NOV 1946 0.3" NOV 1951 8.3" * NOV 1976 1.4" NOV 1977 7.4" * NOV 1986 3.3" * Nov 2002 1.4" * Above Normal Snowfall
(Measurable snow in October)
In addition, sometimes even higher amounts were seen at Flint and Saginaw for those Novembers in the study. This "snowy" November trend actually surfaced in research for the past two seasons in the Winter Outlook. This rang true for most of the area this past November and interestingly, part of the area in November 2003 (and oddly enough, about the same time and from a similar type storm system). Note the record of the event in November 2003 Monthly Climate Summary...
"A storm center winding up over the eastern Lakes brought our first notable round of snow and cold. Accompanied by blustery chilly northwest winds, rain over the region on Thanksgiving, changed to snow on Friday".
This system too, was a direct result of an Eastern Great Lakes Low Pressure System, one of several this winter. This type of storm center brought the "White Thanksgiving" to much of area this past winter along with the unusual late April storm. In retrospect, one could say our White Thanksgiving was a great indicator of things to come for the Winter of 2004-05.
Now, on to the bulk of the Winter of 2004-05. Let us look at the actual statistics for this past winter at Detroit (Metro Arpt), Flint (Bishop), Saginaw (Tri Cities) and here at the NWS in White Lake /DTX/ (note November's and April's snowfall are also included for better season tally purposes).
| 2004-05 Winter Average Temperature/Precipitation and Snowfall (Fig-1) | |||||
| Detroit | Flint | Saginaw | White Lake | ||
| Nov | (S) | 0.1 | 4.6 | 7.0" | 5.3" |
| Dec | (T) | 29.7/+0.1 | 26.5/+2.6 | 25.4/-1.6 | 26.0/N |
| (P) | 2.91/+0.40 | 2.10/-0.08 | 2.33/+0.22 | 3.64/+ | |
| (S) | 12.5/+1.4 | 13.7/+2.1 | 16.7/+6.5 | 23.3/++ | |
| Jan | (T) | 24.1/-0.4 | 20.9/-0.4 | 20.3/-1.1 | 20.7/- |
| (P) | 3.40/+1.49 | 2.93/+1.36 | 3.43/+1.66 | 3.88/+ | |
| (S) | 26.9/+15.0 | 19.7/+6.5 | 15.9/+4.1 | 27.4/++ | |
| Feb | (T) | 28.4/+1.2 | 24.9/+2.6 | 26.2/+2.5 | 24.8/+ |
| (P) | 3.02/+1.14 | 2.45/+1.10 | 2.11/+0.54 | 2.68/+ | |
| (S) | 12.5/+3.2 | 14.7/+5.3 | 18.0/+9.7 | 17.4/+ | |
| AVE | (T) | 27.4/+0.3 | 24.6/+0.7 | 24.0/0.0 | 23.6/N |
| PCPN | (P) | 9.33/+3.03 | 7.48/+2.38 | 7.87/+2.42 | 10.20/++ |
| Mar | (T) | 33.1/-3.8 | 29.1/-4.6 | 27.8/-5.7 | 29.1/- |
| (P) | 0.74/-1.78 | 1.04/-1.1 | 1.13/-1.29 | 1.12/- | |
| (S) | 7.4/+0.4 | 12.3/+4.6 | 11.8/+3.8 | 12.4/+ | |
| Dec-Mar | (T) | 28.8/-0.8 | 25.4/-1.0 | 25.0/-1.4 | 25.2/- |
| Apr | (S) | 4.3/+2.6 | 7.8/+5.4 | 6.1/+3.9 | 14.5/++ |
| Season | (S) | 63.7/+19.7 | 73.0/+24.9 | 75.5/+31.0 | 101.0/++ |
| - Below Normal | -- Well Below Normal | N Near Normal |
| + Above Normal | ++ Well Above Normal | M Missing |
| The + or - at White Lake (DTX) is an estimate of below or above normal since norms have yet to be established | ||
All three cities averaged near normal temperatures for the winter but when March is included, below normal averages result. March is not normally used for the winter average since it considered a spring month for climatalogical season purposes. However, when examining March's average temperature and ironically, its precipitation type (which was virtually all snow, unlike the actual winter months), March actually mimicked a winter month and thus made the winter feel longer. Note, the four month average temperature above against the four month norm and all averages drop to around a degree below normal).
RECORD BREAKING LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM
With such an exceptionally variable and stormy winter it was actually fitting that the Winter of 2004-05 went out with a bang and not a whimper. If the persistent cold and snow during March wasn't enough to extend an already lengthy winter, Mother Nature really gave the inhabitants of Southeast Lower Michigan a sucker punch late in April.
A very nice stretch of sunny, dry (actually too dry) weather commenced late March into the first three weeks of April. This beautiful early spring weather reached a climax on the 19th when record highs were attained at all three climate stations (DTW/FNT/MBS). Ironically, not only did all three cities have record highs but it also was with the same temperature, 83 degrees. After the 19th, however, the weather was all downhill, accelerating big-time by the weekend. A series of cold fronts pushed south across the Michigan from the 20th to the 23rd, dropping temperatures some 40-50 degrees by the weekend /23-24th/!
An intense low pressure developed along an arctic cold front over the Upper Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday and actually backed westward into the Eastern Lower Great Lakes (over Southwest Ontario - central pressure about 29.25" /986 MB/). This storm brought the worse late April weather seen in these parts in several decades. Snowfalls from the storm ranged wildly from a trace to as much as 16.5" with the heaviest falling across the highland areas from central Oakland County northeast into the Thumb Region (around Bad Axe). This very late snowstorm was the "icing on the cake" so to speak on what already had been a very snowy season. More information is available on April snows and total snowfall amounts from this storm. Incredibly, the May 9th, 1923 snowstorm which contained similar snow depths is over two weeks later!
The phasing of upper level jet steams, resulting in intensifying low pressure systems over Lower or Eastern Great Lakes tem have been responsible for some of our worst snowstorms. It was this particular type of storm track that was brought to the forefront in the Winter Outlook:
As in the majority of winters, whether they be cold or mild, the most predominant storm track continued to be the Alberta Clipper skirting across southern Canada or diving southeast into the northern and eastern U.S. What we will be watching for this winter is for this track to occasionally be the forerunner of major storm development across the Southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and East Coast. This storm track development would be one way to set the region up for a stormier winter, especially if phasing occurs between the Arctic Jet and sub-tropical Jet. Of course, the further east the phasing, the less likely for heavier snows in this neck of the woods.
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS
Looking at some highlights and news worthy items of the winter across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. (Monthly Climate write-ups can be found on our Local Climate page.)
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DECEMBER 2004
- VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK BRINGS HEAVY RAIN, SNOW, WIND, NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND COLD
- 12TH SNOWIEST DECEMBER AT FLINT AND 16TH SNOWIEST IN SAGINAW
- AFTER A WHITE THANKSGIVING, MOTHER NATURE CLOBBERS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER SNOWSTORM IN TIME FOR A VERY WHITE CHRISTMAS
- NEW YEAR'S SURGE OF WARM AIR KEEPS THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER-COASTER WELL-OILED WITH OVER A 70 DEGREE RANGE IN THE LAST WEEK
- WETTEST AND SECOND SNOWIEST DECEMBER IN WHITE LAKE /NWS/ SINCE OUR RECORDS BEGAN /1995/, ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE SO EARLY IN THE SEASON
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JANUARY 2005
- JANUARY CHALLENGES DECEMBER WITH ITS WILD TEMPERATURE AND STORM PATTERN
- VERY ACTIVE STORM TRACK BRINGS THIRD SNOWIEST AND 13TH WETTEST JANUARY, AND THE 10TH SNOWIEST MONTH EVER IN DETROIT
- NINTH SNOWIEST JANUARY AND 17TH SNOWIEST MONTH EVER IN FLINT, AND 17TH SNOWIEST JANUARY AT SAGINAW
- FREQUENT SNOW AND RAIN MADE IT THE FIFTH WETTEST JANUARY ON RECORD AT BOTH FLINT AND SAGINAW
- AVERAGE OF THE EXTREMES RESULTS IN ANOTHER "NORMAL" TEMPERATURE MONTH
- SNOWSTORM ON THE 23RD MAKES DETROIT'S/FLINT'S BIGGEST SNOWSTORM LIST
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FEBRUARY 2005
- A BREAK IN THE STORM ACTION ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES (AND A RECORD HIGH) EARLY IN FEBRUARY LED TO A FALSE SENSE OF SECURITY THAT WINTER WAS WANING
- STORM TRACK RE-ENERGIZES MID-LATE MONTH WITH MOST NOTABLE STORMS ARRIVING ON THE 20TH AND ON MARCH'S DOORSTEP
- SEASON NORMAL SNOWFALLS WELL EXCEEDED AT FLINT AND ESPECIALLY AT SAGINAW (WHICH GOT POUNDED BY THE STORMS LATE IN THE MONTH)
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MARCH 2005
- MARCH OPENS UNDER THE ROAR OF THE COLD LION WHILE ENDING WITH THE MEOW OF A KITTEN
- DESPITE ONE OF THE DRIEST MARCHES ON RECORD, THE SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP
- VERY COLD MARCH PLACES IN AT 9TH COLDEST FOR FLINT AND 13TH COLDEST AT SAGINAW (BUT MUCH OF THE MONTH, PLACEMENT WAS HIGHER UP)
- DESPITE ONE OF THE DRIEST MARCHES ON RECORD, THE SNOW CONTINUED TO PILE UP
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APRIL
- 4TH SNOWIEST APRIL ON RECORD AT FLINT, 11TH SNOWIEST AT SAGINAW AND 14TH SNOWIEST AT DETROIT (ALSO SEE LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM ABOVE)
OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF WINTER RESEARCH AND OUTLOOK
ORIGINAL OUTLOOK STATED:RESULT:WINTER TEMPERATURES:
Temperature variability, sometimes rather extreme, is strongly suggested not only by this year's research but also by recent trends. Temperature data reflected in the selected researched winters (Fig -1) have an incredible range, including everything from the top ten coldest to warmest winters!That being said, for reasons elaborated on in the following research, the consensus is to go with our strongest indicators of near normal to below normal temperatures for the upcoming Winter of 2004-05. The two-tier temperature outlook is used because of the likelihood of wide variances (a.k.a. roller-coaster pattern) during the winter months as suggested strongly by the 15 selected winters and recent trends. While some wide temperature swings are expected, in the final analysis, near normal to below normal temperature averages are likely.
Basically, the preferred indicators of the winters in the study were extremely helpful in predicting temperature patterns/results and exceeded expectations. As summarized above, the impressive ride in the temperature pattern was one of the two things people were talking about this past winter.
All three cities averaged near normal and if March is included, below normal results. March is not normally used for the winter average since it considered a spring month (and wasn't used in the official winter average temperature) but since this March actually played out like another winter month, it did make the winter feel so long. *Note the four-month average temperature and the four month norm in our table above (all averages drop to around a degree below normal).
So, while near normal temperatures resulted with the three month average, below normal averages arose from the four month average (Dec-Mar). Unfortunately, this extension of the cold becomes more apparent to the public when most are hoping for some spring warmth after the winter (Dec-Feb) chill.
ORIGINAL OUTLOOK STATED:WINTER SNOWFALL:
Here, our research and recent trends suggest a winter similar to last few winters with snowfalls actually ranging from below normal to above normal, depending largely on location and storm track. The key here is when and where the dominant storm track sets up. At this time, a slight edge is given to a more southern storm track (similar track to that seen in the Winter of 2002-03).Therefore, while near normal will be the general (or average) category used for this winter's expected snowfall, snowfall totals are still expected to range from below normal to above normal. If the expected storm track materializes, snowfall will range from near normal to above from the northern suburbs of Detroit south to the Ohio Border, while normal to below is expected further north up across the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb Region.
and noted BIG storms:
RESULT:Of the winters where the data is available, negative phases of the EPO and NAO more often than not, prevailed during the winters of 1951-52, 1976-77, 1977-78 and recent winter of 2002-03. All winters displayed an active southern stream storm track (aided by El Niņo). The Winter of 1951-52 was an exceptionally stormy winter with heavy amounts of snow across the entire Southeast Lower Michigan area along with an impressive "roller-coaster ride". The Winter of 1977-78 was also a busy, cold winter that contained the super-storm of January 26-28th, 1978 Blizzard, which brought the lowest pressure reading on record to a number of weather stations with its visit (including Detroit with 28.345"). In the 1978 storm, a strong phasing of the subtropical and Arctic jet under an evolving negative EPO and NAO, help set the stage for the creation of that monster. Another super-storm was bore out of these winters and that was during the Winter of 1885-86, but ironically, it was in the spring - April 6, 1886. That massive and unseasonable storm brought the most snowfall ever recorded at Detroit from one storm, 24.5"!
Past data suggested a more southern storm track (as stated, more similar to that of 2002-03) and this verified well. This track was expected to supply more of the populous areas (along and south of a Lansing...Flint...Port Huron Line...or basically I-69...to the Ohio Border) with heavy snowfall. Unlike the Winter of 2002-03, however, the heavy snow pattern extended further north over far northern areas of Southeast Lower Michigan (or, as mentioned in the Outlook: "across the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb Region". The difference between the two winters (and some others on the list) was that in the Winter of 2004-05, the storm track varied enough to cover the entire region with heavy snow (this also occurred in the Winters of 1911-12, 1925-26, 1951-52 and 1977-78). The winter of 1899-00 may very well been another widespread snowy winter but unfortunately, complete data is not available for Flint or Saginaw.
And that brings us to the winters that were selected in the original Winter Outlook to be more analogous with that of 2004-05 ( or, were called the "Rough Winters" ). The highlighted winters were good indicators for this past winter with the Winters of 1951-52 and 1925-26, the overall best. As you can see, the Winter of 2004-05 fits well with the other researched "Rough Winters" under similar conditions mentioned in the Outlook
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(Fig - 2)
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| Winter | Solar Phase | Average Temperature | Season Snowfall | Snowy Months | ||||||||||
| Detroit | Flint | Saginaw | Detroit | Flint | Saginaw | |||||||||
| 1899-00 | /SCD/ | 26.1 | 24.2 | * | - | 69.1 | (4) | - | - | F/M | ||||
| 1911-12 | /SCB/ | 21.8 | (13) | 19.7 | * | 19.6 | 58.0 | (14) | - | 59.3 | (15) | J/F/M | ||
| 1925-26 | /SCU/ | 26.1 | 24.5 | * | 23.1 | 78.0 | (2) | 64.9 | 54.0 | J/F/M | ||||
| 1951-52 | /SCD/ | 29.0 | 26.5 | 25.0 | 58.6 | (13) | 75.3 | 83.5 | (2) | J/F | ||||
| 1976-77 | /SCD/ | 19.8 | (3) | 16.9 | (1) | 18.3 | (8) | 43.9 | 44.8 | 18.5 | J/M | |||
| 1977-78 | /SCB/ | 20.4 | (7) | 19.1 | (5) | 17.9 | (6) | 61.7 | (8) | 50.6 | 55.6 | (20) | D/J | |
| 2002-03 | - | 24.1 | 22.5 | (17) | 21.3 | (19) | 60.9 | (9) | 52.1 | (15) | 42.4 | D/J/F | ||
| 2004-05 | /SCD/ | 27.4 | 24.6 | 24.0 | 63.7 | (7) | 73.0 | (5) | 75.5 | (3) | All | |||
| Predicted Ave Temps: | 27.2 | 24.5 | 24.1 | |||||||||||
What was learned from the snowfall results and what was said in the Outlook?
To a large extent, the interpretation of the "guidance" given from the rough winters performed very well over much of the area. It was learned, however, that trying to fine tune snowfall over all of Southeast Lower Michigan in the Winter Outlook was asking too much and being too specific. One should stick to the expected dominant pattern and go from there.
