MinT Verification Summary for Wed, Aug 18:

Grid Time: start:Wed, Aug 18 01Z end:Wed, Aug 18 15Z
Edit Area: BIS   (6068 gridpoints)

Measures of Difficulty:

Avg Anomaly: -1.56 Avg |anomaly|: 2.17 Rank: 6 out of last 7
Avg 24hr Chg: +1.51 Avg |24hr Chg|: 2.54 Rank: 4 out of last 7
Standard Deviation: 2.16 Rank: 4 out of last 7

Period Forecast Made Official
MAE		 Official
Bias		 Official
Percent
>10° Err		 Official
Percent
<3° Err		 Official
Rank
among
Guidance		 Best Guidance 2nd Best Guidance Worst Guidance
1 13-hr Tue 8/17 day 3.33 3.16 0.0% 53.9% 16 out of 26 MOSGuide 84.5% BCCONSRaw 81.7% CONSRaw 8.0%
2 25-hr Tue 8/17 mid 2.40 2.06 0.0% 65.2% 13 out of 26 MOSGuide 82.3% BCCONSAll 72.9% CONSRaw 3.6%
3 37-hr Mon 8/16 day 2.71 2.52 0.0% 55.0% 16 out of 26 MOSGuide 95.2% WModel 82.1% SREF 11.9%
4 49-hr Mon 8/16 mid 2.80 2.75 0.0% 50.3% 17 out of 25 MOSGuide 94.9% GFS40 89.2% ECMWF 0.4%
5 61-hr Sun 8/15 day 4.83 4.83 0.0% 9.8% 20 out of 25 MOSGuide 93.9% SREFBC 83.9% ECMWF 0.0%
6 73-hr Sun 8/15 mid 3.17 3.07 0.0% 49.1% 12 out of 21 SREFBC 94.0% GFS40BC 80.3% GEMnh 11.6%
7 85-hr Sat 8/14 day 4.19 4.15 0.0% 24.1% 10 out of 19 HPCGuide 87.2% MOSGuide 72.0% GFS40 0.0%
8 97-hr Sat 8/14 mid 1.33 0.14 0.0% 92.1% 1 out of 17 BCCONSMOS 85.6% CONSMOS 85.3% ECMWF 0.0%
9 109-hr Fri 8/13 day 1.72 -1.02 0.0% 90.4% 1 out of 17 BCCONSAll 84.7% HPCGuide 67.9% GFS40 0.1%
10 121-hr Fri 8/13 mid 2.10 -1.81 0.0% 87.0% 1 out of 17 MOSGuide 74.0% WModel 65.9% CONSRaw 0.0%
11 133-hr Thu 8/12 day 2.10 -1.81 0.0% 87.0% 2 out of 17 WModel 89.5% MOSGuide 84.7% ECMWFBC 1.9%
12 145-hr Thu 8/12 mid 1.47 -0.47 0.0% 95.3% 1 out of 16 CONSMOS 90.3% WModel 88.2% ECMWFBC 0.7%
13 157-hr Wed 8/11 day 1.47 -0.47 0.0% 95.3% 2 out of 16 ECMWF 95.4% CONSAll 92.9% ECMWFBC 1.5%
14 169-hr Wed 8/11 mid 1.59 0.89 0.0% 82.0% 8 out of 16 CONSRaw 95.4% CONSAll 91.4% GFS40BC 0.6%
 
Average over past 7 days:
1 13-hr 2.29 0.5 0.0% 69.6% 11 out of 26 MOSGuideBC 81.7% BCCONSAll 80.1% ECMWF 16.1%
2 25-hr 2.05 -0.5 0.0% 74.8% 5 out of 26 MOSGuideBC 82.0% BCCONSMOS 78.7% ECMWF 19.4%
3 37-hr 2.56 0.5 0.0% 63.9% 14 out of 26 WModel 82.7% MOSGuideBC 82.6% ECMWF 14.2%
4 49-hr 2.38 0.0 0.0% 68.0% 13 out of 25 MOSGuideBC 83.1% BCCONSMOS 81.9% ECMWF 10.4%
5 61-hr 2.24 0.4 0.0% 72.0% 12 out of 25 MOSGuideBC 88.2% BCCONSMOS 82.6% ECMWF 12.7%
6 73-hr 1.90 0.1 0.0% 83.0% 1 out of 21 MOSGuideBC 82.9% BCCONSMOS 81.1% ECMWF 12.9%
7 85-hr 2.43 0.2 0.0% 69.4% 9 out of 19 MOSGuideBC 81.9% BCCONSMOS 79.6% SREF 15.4%
8 97-hr 2.02 0.2 0.0% 76.2% 5 out of 17 BCCONSMOS 79.0% CONSMOS 78.3% ECMWF 23.6%
9 109-hr 2.17 0.3 0.0% 73.4% 3 out of 17 BCCONSAll 78.7% MOSGuideBC 76.6% ECMWF 20.5%
10 121-hr 2.36 -0.0 0.0% 71.2% 5 out of 17 ADJMEX 72.7% CONSMOS 72.0% CONSRaw 17.7%
11 133-hr 2.77 -0.6 0.1% 61.8% 8 out of 17 BCCONSAll 71.5% MOSGuide 69.3% CONSRaw 30.9%
12 145-hr 2.57 -0.2 0.0% 69.0% 2 out of 16 WModel 70.4% CONSMOS 67.6% ECMWF 32.9%
13 157-hr 2.51 -0.2 0.0% 70.1% 1 out of 16 MOSGuide 68.7% ADJMEX 67.1% ECMWF 31.1%
14 169-hr 2.35 1.2 0.1% 65.0% 2 out of 16 CONSAll 65.2% CONSMOS 65.0% ECMWFBC 28.7%