000 FGUS73 KBIS 231311 ESFBIS NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053- 055-057-059-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-241800- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 808 AM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007 ...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3 FOR THE MISSOURI AND JAMES RIVER BASINS... THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE JAMES RIVER AND MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS IN WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA VALID THROUGH MID JUNE. SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK ISSUED IN MARCH...STREAMFLOW RUNOFF AND MINOR RISES HAVE OCCURRED OVER MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. PRESENTLY LEVELS WERE RECEDING. THIS INCLUDES THE KNIFE...HEART...CANNONBALL...CEDAR ...LITTLE MISSOURI RIVERS...LITTLE MUDDY...AND SPRING CREEK. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW LAY ON THE GROUND. IN NORTHWEST...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA RUNOFF WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...BEAVER CREEK...APPLE CREEK...PIPESTEM CREEK...AND THE JAMES RIVER. ALTHOUGH LEVELS WERE HIGH...NO FLOODING HAS OCCURRED. HOWEVER...ICE IN THESE RIVERS WAS CREATING ELEVATED WATER LEVELS. REPORTED FROST DEPTHS CURRENTLY VARY FROM 8 INCHES TO 2 FEET. LONG-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA SINCE LAST YEAR. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR...A LONG-TERM INDICATOR... WHICH INCORPORATES THE PALMER DROUGHT STABILITY INDEX (PDSI)...RANKS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA D1 AND D2...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WAS RANKED D0...ABNORMALLY DRY. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT HOWEVER...AS THE EL NINO PATTERN IS BREAKING DOWN WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO LA NINA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL RUNOFF. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR FLOODING REMAIN MINIMAL AS CURRENT CONDITIONS DICTATE. A (15%) CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE LOWER JAMES RIVER NEAR LUDDEN. (SEE DAILY FLOOD STATEMENTS CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED) A (10%) CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR LITTLE MUDDY CREEK. A (20%) CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR SPRING CREEK. THERE IS A (20% TO 25%) CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE KNIFE RIVER AND APPLE CREEK. ALONG THESE SAME RIVERS...THE KNIFE AND APPLE CREEK...THERE IS A (10%) CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING. MINOR FLOODING MEANS MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY DAMAGE...BUT POSSIBLY SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE. MODERATE FLOODING IS DEFINED BY THE INUNDATION OF SECONDARY ROADS, MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NECESSARY TO SAVE PROPERTY, AND SOME EVACUATION MAY BE REQUIRED. THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL. ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND RAPID MELT WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL WHILE BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR INTERMITTENT FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CURRENT ASSESSMENT. IN ADDITION...AS THE FROZEN RIVERS AND STREAMS THAW...ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR CAUSING HIGHER RIVER LEVELS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK VALID MARCH 26, 2007 - JUNE 24, 2007 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) ENABLE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS... THE LATEST CLIMATE OUTLOOKS FOR NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL (30-DAY) INDICATE NO DEVIATION FROM NORMAL FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL THROUGH JUNE (90-DAY) INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NO DEVIATION FROM NORMAL FOR MOISTURE. THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE VIEWED ON THE INTERNET AT: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS BELOW IS TABLE 1 WHICH SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. FOR MORE DETAILS SUCH AS CHANCES OF EXCEEDING CERTAIN STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REFER TO TABLE 2. TABLE 1. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. VALID MARCH 26, 2007 THROUGH JUNE 24, 2007 CHANCE LOCATION FS (FT) EXCEEDING FS -------- ------ ---------- LITTLE MUDDY RIVER WILLISTON 10NE 10 10% LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER MARMARTH 18 LESS THAN 10% MEDORA 15 LESS THAN 10% WATFORD CITY 20 LESS THAN 10% SPRING CREEK ZAP 14 20% KNIFE RIVER MANNING 15 LESS THAN 10% HAZEN 1S 21 25% HEART RIVER MANDAN 3W 17 LESS THAN 10% APPLE CREEK MENOKEN 6W 15 20% JAMES RIVER GRACE CITY 3W 12 LESS THAN 10% LAMOURE 14 LESS THAN 10% LUDDEN 5SW 12 15% PIPESTEM CREEK PINGREE 3W 9 LESS THAN 10% CANNONBALL RIVER REGENT 22 LESS THAN 10% BREIEN 10 LESS THAN 10% CEDAR CREEK RALEIGH 19S 12 LESS THAN 10% IN TABLE 2 BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS GIVE THE CHANCE THE RIVER AT THE GIVEN LOCATION WOULD RISE ABOVE THE INDICATED STAGE LEVELS WITHIN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE KNIFE RIVER NEAR HAZEN HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 6.3 FEET BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL RISE ABOVE 24.2 FEET. TABLE 2. CHANCES OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS IN THE BISMARCK HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET VALID 03/26/07 - 06/24/07 LOCATION FS (FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ________ ______ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ LITTLE MUDDY RIVER WILLISTON 10NE 10 4.6 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.8 7.2 8.5 10.2 LITTLE MISSOURI RIVER MARMARTH ND 18 1.2 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 8.7 MEDORA ND 15 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.7 4.4 5.5 6.2 8.4 10.1 WATFORD CITY 20 1.6 2.2 2.8 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.1 6.6 7.8 SPRING CREEK ZAP ND 14 4.7 5.4 6.5 8.5 9.6 11.1 12.3 14.5 17.1 KNIFE RIVER MANNING 15 6.5 6.9 8.0 8.5 9.1 9.9 11.0 12.3 14.4 HAZEN ND 1S 21 2.7 4.3 6.3 8.2 9.6 12.5 18.3 22.3 24.2 HEART RIVER MANDAN 3W 17 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.0 2.6 3.7 6.5 6.9 APPLE CREEK MENOKEN 6W 15 5.1 5.5 5.6 6.2 7.7 10.4 13.4 15.2 16.1 JAMES RIVER GRACE CITY 3W 12 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.7 6.4 LAMOURE 14 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 8.1 8.4 10.8 LUDDEN 5SW 12 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.7 11.1 14.6 PIPESTEM CREEK PINGREE 3W 9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.3 7.6 CANNONBALL RIVER REGENT 22 5.1 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.4 7.4 7.6 8.3 9.5 BREIEN 10 4.2 5.1 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.7 8.4 9.8 CEDAR CREEK RALEIGH 19S 12 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.3 5.8 6.6 THE NUMBERS CONTAINED IN THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK REPRESENT NATURAL FLOWS. THAT IS, FLOWS UNAFFECTED BY MAN-MADE STRUCTURES IN THE BASIN SUCH AS DIVERSION DAMS AND RESERVOIRS. THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER ...SOIL MOISTURE ...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. THIS OUTLOOK IS ALSO PRESENTED AS GRAPHS OF STAGE, FLOW, AND VOLUME...AND AS WEEKLY PROBABILITIES OF THE 90-DAY PERIOD...AS WELL AS EXPLANATIONS THAT HELP IN INTERPRETATION. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE NWS BISMARCK AHPS PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS/AHPS CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS FOR ALL 13 RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE. 5-DAY FORECASTS WHEN THE RIVER AT A FORECAST POINT IS NEAR FLOOD ARE ALSO AVAILABLE FOR ALL BASINS. THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS PRODUCED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER THAT ARE USED IN THE LONG RANGE PROBABILITY HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS THE NEXT AHPS AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL 2007 VISIT OUR HOME PAGE AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BIS FOR MORE WEATHER AND FLOOD INFORMATION. IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, CONTACT THE NWS AT 701-250-4495. $$ PRINDIVILLE