Huron/Manistee National Forest Forecast

APX AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE SEASONAL 
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER A NORTHERN
PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
GENERATE MILD TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES 
AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY...RETURNING SOME SUN AND SEASONAL 
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


FORECAST

PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
542 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE 
                    NORTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN 
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54. 
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (10). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY AFTER 0800 
                    UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (410). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.42 IN. 


$$

CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
542 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. 
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 6 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN 
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN 
                    AFTER 0200. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54. 
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (20). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN. 

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN 
                    SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79. 
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.38 IN. 


$$
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
542 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. 
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE 
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY 
                    AFTER 0200. 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE 
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (0). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 3 TO 6 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.07 IN. 

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 
                    0800...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN UNTIL 1400...THEN 
                    FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF 
                    THUNDERSTORMS. 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. 
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......21 PERCENT WETTER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.51 IN. 


EXTENDED FORECAST


.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 

$$

SWR




SOUTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE TODAY QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW

HUMIDITY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY 

SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROLL THROUGH 

ON MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ON MONDAY. 


FORECAST



MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...HART...

FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS

335 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). 

MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72. 

   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER. 

MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND 37-42 

                    PERCENT INLAND. 

   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND 

                    UNCHANGED INLAND. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...NORTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 

HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 

                    FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......5100-5600 FT AGL. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE 

                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 

VENTILATION INDEX...300 (GOOD). 

PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 



.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) UNTIL 0100...THEN 

                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF 

                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300 UNTIL 

                    0500...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. 

CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57. 

   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER. 

MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT. 

   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH 

                    OVERNIGHT. 

HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 

                    FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...600-1100 FT AGL. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......INLAND...3700-4200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 100-600 

                    FT AGL OVERNIGHT. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. 

VENTILATION INDEX...100 (POOR). 

PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.21 IN. 



.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 

                    THUNDERSTORMS. 

CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT. 

MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80. 

   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER. 

MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT. 

   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT WETTER. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. 

HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 

                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...1800-2300 FT AGL. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......INLAND...1500-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 

                    4500-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 15 TO 20 MPH. 

VENTILATION INDEX...300 (GOOD) INCREASING TO 900 (EXCELLENT) IN THE 

                    AFTERNOON. 

PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.43 IN. 





$$



EXTENDED FORECAST



.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS

AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. 

.LABOR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. 

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80. 







$$

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