Huron/Manistee National Forest Forecast

APX AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

.DISCUSSION...
A COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS 
THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES. 
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...CONTINUING QUIET WEATHER WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH FRIDAY.

NONE OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS SHOULD LINE UP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY TODAY...HUMIDITY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN CHECK. RH LEVELS WILL DIP LOWER ON 
THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S...BUT WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT. THEN HUMIDITY BEGINS TO REBOUND AGAIN INTO FRIDAY.


FORECAST

PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
453 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE 
                    COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 
                    MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1250). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......6800 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (20). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE 
                    COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH 
                    IN THE AFTERNOON. 
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (630). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......7400 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 


$$

CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
453 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. 
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1220). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 21 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50. 
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (10). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78. 
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (660). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......7900 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 


$$
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
453 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 62-67 NEAR THE COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE 
                    COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 
                    MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 21 TO 24 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). 
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-47. 
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER. 
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT. 
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT WETTER 
                    ALONG THE COAST. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN 
                    THE EVENING. 
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 
                    FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........POOR (0). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 15 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). 
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76. 
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER. 
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE 
                    COAST. 
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER. 
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. 
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 
VENT RATE...........GOOD (520). 
MIXING HEIGHT.......7100 FT AGL. 
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH. 
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 


EXTENDED FORECAST


.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 

$$

BERGER




SOUTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE MANISTEE NATIONAL FOREST

.DISCUSSION...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FLOW INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TODAY AT 15 TO 30 MPH.


FORECAST



MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...HART...

FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS

331 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014



.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). 

MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75. 

   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER. 

MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT. 

   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...NORTH WINDS 14 TO 19 MPH. 

HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 

                    FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......3100-3600 FT AGL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND 

                    4900-5400 FT AGL INLAND. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 20 MPH. 

VENTILATION INDEX...1000-1100 (EXCELLENT). 

PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 



.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). 

MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49. 

   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER. 

MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT. 

   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...NORTH WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. 

HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME 

                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...2600-3100 FT AGL. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......INLAND...4500-5000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 

                    1100-1600 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. 

VENTILATION INDEX...900 (EXCELLENT) DECREASING TO 200 (FAIR) 

                    OVERNIGHT. 

PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 



.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). 

MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76. 

   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER. 

MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT. 

   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER. 

WIND(20FT/10-MIN)...NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. 

HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED 

                    FIRE GROWTH. 

MIXING HEIGHT.......4500-5000 FT AGL NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND 

                    5800-6300 FT AGL INLAND. 

TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. 

VENTILATION INDEX...300-400 (GOOD TO GOOD). 

PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE. 





$$



EXTENDED FORECAST



.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH UP TO 5 MPH OVERNIGHT. 

.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO

11 MPH. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH WINDS

5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 

.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 

.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. 







$$

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