National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

In the longer term (August 1, 2011 through April 23, 2013), precipitation deficits are running between 3 and 5 inches in north-central Wisconsin (Taylor County) and 6 and 10 inches in Mower County in southeast Minnesota and Floyd and Mitchell counties north-central Iowa. These precipitation deficits are affecting the sub soil moisture; therefore, these counties are still classified as being abnormally dry (D0) conditions.

In the May 7th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, extreme (D3) to exceptional drought (D4) still covers much of central and western Nebraska and central South Dakota.  Severe drought (D2) exists across parts of southwest and northwest Minnesota, extreme western Iowa, and eastern Nebraska.  Moderate drought (D1) exists across parts of western Iowa.  Abnormally dry (D0) conditions are found in northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

National, State and Local Actions:

Climatological Summary:

From April 1st through May 7th, anywhere from 4.20 inches (Mather, WI) to 11.26 inches (Cresco, IA) of precipitation fell.  This precipitation was 2 to 6 inches above-normal.  This precipitation has greatly improved the top soil moisture across the area.  As a result, the 2012-13 drought has ended across the La Crosse Hydrological Service Area (HSA).

The images below are courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center and show the temperature and precipitation departures from April 1 through May 7, 2013.

In the longer term (August 1, 2011 through April 23, 2013), precipitation deficits are  running between 3 and 5 inches in north-central Wisconsin (Taylor County) and 6 and 10 inches in Mower County in southeast Minnesota and Floyd and Mitchell counties north-central Iowa.  These precipitation deficits are affecting the sub soil moisture; therefore, these counties are still classified as being abnormally dry (D0) conditions. 

The images below are courtesy of the Midwestern Regional Climate Center and show the temperature and precipitation anomalies from August 1, 2011 through May 7, 2013.

The tables below show the precipitation deficits/surpluses for various time periods.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.


Potential Evapotranspiration Rates:

• Iowa
• Minnesota & Wisconsin

Disaster & Drought Assistance:

• USDA
• USDA Blog
• County Drought Disaster List
• FSA
• Emergency Farm Loans
• Emergency Haying & Grazing

City Information:

• Prairie du Chien, WI

Other Drought Web Sites:

• Minnesota DNR
  
• ReadyWisconsin (Part of the
  Wisconsin Emergency
  Management Team)
  
• Wisconsin Department
  of Agriculture, Trade, and
  Consumer Protection

Northeast Iowa:

On May 7th, the latest ground water level south of Eldorado, IA (Fayette County, IA) was 3.47 feet below ground.  This was 0.18 feet closer to the ground than April 23rd (3.65 feet).  This is the highest value since March of 2011.  The normal water level is 15.79 feet.  

The deepest level ever recorded for this site was 17.33 feet on September 23, 2012.  The shallowest level recorded was 3.46 feet on November 2, 2009.  Data for this site began on January 23, 2009.  The image below is courtesy of the USGS and it shows how the ground water level has changed since June 1, 2012.

Southeast Minnesota:

Chatfield, MN (Fillmore County):

No new ground water levels are available for this site.

Lake City (Wabasha County):

On April 9th, the ground water level was 9.64 feet below ground.  This was 1.71 feet closer to the surface than March 14th (11.35 feet).  The latest water level is 2.81 feet deeper than what it was on June 8, 2012 (6.83 feet). 

The normal ground water level is 9.59 feet.  The lowest ground water level recorded is 12.74 feet on July 26, 2006.

Wasioja, MN (Dodge County, MN):

On May 6th, the ground water level was 21.86 feet below ground.  This was 2.97 feet closer to the surface than April 5th (24.83 feet).  The latest water level is still 5.81 deeper feet than it was on May 6, 2011 (16.05 feet). 

The normal ground water level is 20.88 feet.  The lowest ground water level recorded is 26.88 feet on January 5, 1978.

Western Wisconsin:

On May 6th, the ground water level at Fort McCoy Military Reservation (Monroe County, WI) was 3.46 feet below the ground. This was 0.37 feet closer to the surface than April 21st (3.83 feet).  The ground water is 1.36 feet closer to the surface than the normal of 4.82 feet.  This week's ground water level is the highest value since June of 2008.

The deepest level ever recorded for this site was 9.25 feet on October 12, 2012.  The shallowest level recorded was 0.48 feet on September 29, 1965.  Data for this site began on November 16, 1949.  Data for this site began on November 16, 1949.  The image below is courtesy of the USGS and it shows how the ground water level has changed since June 1, 2012.

Additional information about ground levels can be found at the:

• USGS Ground-Water Climate Response Network
• Minnesota Climatology Working Group

The combination of rain and snow melt this spring has kept river flows above-normal. 

Listed below are some current (May 7th) river and stream flows, in cubic feet per second (cfs), and their percentile versus historical daily stream flow for the day of the year.  These are for selected rivers and streams in our service area with long periods (over 30 years) of record as measured by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at:

• NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at:

• USGS WaterWatch

An interactive table of sites which are at or near record flows can be found at:

• USGS WaterWatch 

Iowa:

On May 6th, the Iowa Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that the dry and warm weather during the first half of the week ending May 5, 2013 turned to cold and wet weather by mid-week.  Temperatures dropped low enough for snowfall to be seen across much of Iowa.  Records for both May snowfall and coldest daily high temperature were set in some areas.  There was an average of 2.3 days suitable for fieldwork during the week.  Most fieldwork was done early in the week before the turn in weather.  Field activities included application of fertilizers and herbicides, tilling, and planting. 
 
Topsoil moisture levels rated 1 percent very short, 3 percent short, 59 percent adequate and 37 percent surplus.  The precipitation received during the week continued to improve subsoil moisture levels.  Subsoil moisture levels rated 4 percent very short, 24 percent short and 63 percent adequate and 9 percent surplus. 

Eight percent of Iowa’s corn acreage has been planted compared with 62 percent at this time last year and the five-year average of 56 percent.  Although farmers were able to plant some corn before the weather turned mid-week, planting progress is the latest since 1995.  Some farmers delayed planting early in the week due to the forecasted snow and cold temperatures.  A series of dry days is needed to permit planting to resume.  Oat planting was 67 percent complete; at this time last year oat planting was complete.  Twenty-three percent of oat acreage has emerged, well behind last year’s 88 percent and the five-year average of 62 percent.  

Pasture and range condition rated 10 percent very poor, 20 percent poor, 39 percent fair and 27 percent good and 4 percent excellent.  Enough moisture has been received to promote new growth in pastures, but cooler than average temperatures have limited the growth of grass.

Minnesota:

On May 6th, the Minnesota Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that farmers had another difficult week getting into their fields.  A late season snow storm continued to bring moisture to areas that were already damp and cold.   Livestock producers are concerned about the slow growth of alfalfa and pastures.  The farmers that were able to work outside were busy with field preparation, fertilizer spreading, and planting.

There were 1.3 days rated suitable for fieldwork for the week ending May 5th, compared with last year’s 3.5 days, and the average of 3.2 days.  Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 2 percent very short, 15 percent short, 62 percent adequate, and 21 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 11 percent very short, 35 percent short, 49 percent adequate, and 5 percent surplus.  Corn planting, at 2 percent complete, is almost 50 percent behind the 5 year average. Oat planting is 9 percent complete, compared with 96 percent last year, and the five year average of 64 percent.  Green peas are 10 percent planted, compared with 76 percent last year, and the average of 47 percent.    Producers anticipate full scale fieldwork to begin on May 8th.   Pasture conditions improved slightly to 21 percent very poor, 17 percent poor, 38 percent fair and 24 percent good.

Wisconsin:

On May 6th, the Wisconsin Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported that temperatures climbed into the 70s and 80s across the state early in the week, before a cold front brought yet another winter storm system through on Thursday.  The northwest received over a foot of snow in some areas, with heavy rain reported elsewhere.  As wintery conditions dragged on problems were mounting for livestock producers, especially in the north.  Reporters commented that feed and hay supplies were tight, calf losses were up due to the cold weather, pastures remained dormant and manure pits were close to overflowing where spreading has been delayed.  Preliminary assessments of winterkill to alfalfa stands were mixed, with reporters expecting significant loss in some areas.  Oats, alfalfa, vegetables, and some corn were being planted as soil conditions permit, primarily in the south and the central sands.  There were 2.6 days suitable for fieldwork this week.

Across the reporting stations, average temperatures last week were 2 degrees below normal to 6 degrees above normal.  Average high temperatures ranged from 58 to 69 degrees, while average low temperatures ranged from 39 to 45 degrees.  Precipitation totals ranged from 0.09 inches in Milwaukee to 1.53 inches in Green Bay.

Statewide, spring tillage was 12 percent complete.
 
Corn was 4 percent planted, compared to 29 percent last year and a 26 percent 5-year average.

Oats were 18 percent planted this week, 44 percentage points below the 5-year average.

Alfalfa was reportedly being seeded where winterkill was evident. Reporters noted that some producers were considering rotating corn into their most damaged alfalfa fields.

Preliminary reports of winterkill in winter wheat and rye were mixed.  Maple syrup season was wrapping up in the north, with excellent production and quality reported for this longer-than-normal season.  Peas were being planted in Marquette, Waushara, and Ozaukee Counties.  Potatoes were going in the ground in Marquette, Portage, and Waushara Counties. 

The following were quotes from Farm Reporters and County Agriculture Agents:

In Grant County, spring field work began in earnest last Thursday.  Lots of oats and a little corn were planted.  This is way behind last year when most of the corn was in by this date.  Some alfalfa fields are showing a fair amount of winterkill. 

In Jackson County, farmers have found patches of alfalfa winterkill, some may be significant.  Only in lighter soils have farmers been able to apply fertilizer.  Some dairy and livestock farmers continue to experience forage shortages.

In Juneau County, it was a really good week weather-wise (especially the weekend). There was some corn planted last week although the ground was still cold.  Things should really progress this week with warm temperatures and little chance of rain. Things are greening up very well.  Have not seen or heard about any extensive winterkill damage to alfalfa or winter wheat, but I'm sure there is some.  Tractors will be going full tilt this week.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

For additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed from the:

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland top soil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry.  Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist.  Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet.  Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture.  Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

As of the morning of May 7th, very high fire danger was reported across central Wisconsin. This includes: Adams, Clark, Jackson, Juneau, and Monroe counties in Wisconsin.

High fire danger was reported across western Wisconsin. This includes: Buffalo, Crawford, Grant, La Crosse, Richland, Taylor, Trempealeau, and Vernon counties in Wisconsin.

Moderate fire danger was reported across much of Minnesota.  This includes: Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona counties in southeast Minnesota.

Low fire danger was reported across Minnesota and Wisconsin.  This includes:  Adams, Buffalo, Clark, Crawford, Grant, Jackson, Juneau, La Crosse, Monroe, Richland, Taylor, Trempealeau, and Vernon counties in Wisconsin.

Burning permits are required in the following counties:  Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Olmsted, Mower, Wabasha, and Winona counties in southeast Minnesota.  

As a reminder, citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning.  Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

Description of Fire Danger Ratings

• Low fire danger
• Moderate fire danger
• High fire danger
• Very High Danger
• Extreme fire danger

For updated DNR Fire Conditions consult the following Web Sites:

• Minnesota DNR
• Wisconsin DNR
  

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found through the:

• Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS)

Burn Bans:

• Iowa

The CPC seasonal outlook for the summer (June through August) of 2013 calls for near- to above-normal temperatures, and equal chances for above-, near-, and below-normal precipitation. 

• 8 to 14 Day Outlook
• 30 Day Outlook
• 90 Day Outlook
  

NCEP's CFSv2 (Coupled Forecast System Model Version 2):

• Weekly
• Monthly
• Seasonal

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information please contact the NWS La Crosse at:

E-mail: w-arx.webmaster@noaa.gov
Telephone: 608-784-8275

Other Contacts:

Local Agricultural Impacts:

• Cooperative Extension Agency
• Farm Service Agency

State climate impacts:

• American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)