National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Rains Alleviate the Drought

Updated on Thursday, October 29, 2009 - Jeff Boyne
Next Scheduled Update:  Thursday, November 12, 2009

Daily Monitoring of Drought Impacts & Outlooks

From 7 AM October 20 through 7 AM October 27, 2009, one to five inches of rain fell across southeast Minnesota, and west central and north central Wisconsin. Typically, the area usually receives around a half inch of precipitation during this time period.  The map below provides more detail on how much precipitation fell across the area during the aforementioned time period.

The above normal precipitation during the past week has caused even more improvement in the drought situation across southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  There are no longer any drought conditions across these locations. However there are still some short and longer term precipitation deficits to make up for across north central, west central, and southwest Wisconsin. Due to this, abnormally dry conditions (D0) still exist across these areas.

In the October 27th release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, extreme (D3) drought existed across northwest Wisconsin. Severe (D2) drought was found across north central Minnesota, the northern quarter of Wisconsin. Moderate (D1) drought was located across north central and west central Minnesota; and western Upper Michigan. Abnormally dry (D0) was located across northern, western, and eastern Minnesota; southwest and northeast Wisconsin and central and eastern Upper Michigan.

Local Area Affected:

State and Local Actions:

No known actions are currently taking place.

Climatological Summary:

Southeast Minnesota...

A very wet October has caused both the short and longer term precipitation deficits to dramatically improve across southeast Minnesota. Due to this, there are no longer any abnormally dry (D0) or drought conditions across this region.

The table below provides the latest precipitation deficits for the growing season (which begins on April 1), for the year, and since last summer.

Western Wisconsin...

A very wet October has caused both the short and longer term precipitation deficits to dramatically improve across western Wisconsin. Due to this, there are no longer any drought conditions across this region. However there are still abnormally dry conditions (D0) across parts of north central, west central, and southwest Wisconsin.

The table below provides the latest precipitation deficits for the growing season (which begins on April 1), for the year, and since last summer.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://www.drought.unl.edu/
dm/monitor.html

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

As of October 27th, the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) indicated that the soil moisture in the top five feet was up to an inch above normal across northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. The image below is from the MRCC.

Current Soil Moisture Deviation as of October 27, 2009
(Depth 0-72 inches)

Additional information about soil moisture conditions can be found either at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) at:

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/drought/drought.jsp

or at the NWS Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Site at:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/soilmst/w.shtml

Additional information about ground levels can be found either at the USGS Ground-Water Climate Response Network at:

Recent rains have caused the river flows to increase dramatically across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.

Listed below are some current (October 27th) river and stream flows versus in cubic feet per second (cfs) compared to percentiles of historical daily stream flow for the day of the year. These are for selected rivers and streams in our service area with long periods (over 30 years) of record as measured by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/
index.php?wfo=arx

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://water.usgs.gov/
waterwatch/

As of the morning of October 27th, low fire danger was reported across southeast Minnesota, and in west central, central, and north central Wisconsin.  Meanwhile moderate fire danger was reported across southwest Wisconsin.

When the fire danger is low, fires are not easily started.  Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands, although a more intense ignition source, such as lightning, may start many fires in duff or punky wood.   Fires in open cured grassland may burn freely a few hours after rain, but fires burning in forested areas spread slowly by creeping or smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers.  There is little danger of spotting.

When the fire danger is moderate, fires start easily and spread at a moderate rate.  Fires can start from most accidental causes, but with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low.  Fires in open-cured grassland will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days.  Woods fires spread slowly to moderately fast.  The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel may burn hot.  Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not persistent.  Fires are not likely to become serious, and control is relatively easy. 

As a reminder, citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning.  Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

In Minnesota:

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/
forestry/fire/index.html

In Wisconsin:

http://dnr.wi.gov/forestry/fire/
fire_danger/wdnr-fire_report.asp

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.us/content/view/23/38/

Minnesota:

On October 25th, the Minnesota Field Office of USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) stated that the cool and wet weather limited harvest progress again last week. Statewide, 1.9 days were suitable for fieldwork. Since October 5th, on average, less than 2 days have been rated suitable for fieldwork per week, statewide. Producers harvesting corn and soybeans reported wet fields and high grain moisture levels. Soybeans were 44 percent harvested compared to 91 percent last year and the five-year average of 93 percent. The statewide average grain moisture of soybeans being harvested was 16 percent. Corn harvest advanced 3 percentage-points to 6 percent harvested, 22 points behind last year and 42 points behind average. Sugarbeets were 71 percent harvested, 16 points behind last year's pace and 22 points behind average. Dry bean harvest advanced 1 point to 88 percent harvested, while reporters noted little to no sunflower harvest activity leaving progress at 20 percent harvested, unchanged from a week ago.

Crop condition ratings declined last week. Soybeans rated good to excellent fell 4 points to 63 percent while corn fell 3 points to 70 percent good to excellent. Sunflowers were rated 54 percent good to excellent down from 55 percent a week ago.

Average temperatures were below normal at nearly all reporting stations. On Monday, temperatures were warmer with daytime highs ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. However, clouds and rain held high temperatures in the 30s and 40s for many locations the remainder of the week. A large area of rain spread over central and southern Minnesota Tuesday night and continued into Wednesday. More snow fell across parts of east central and southeastern Minnesota on Friday. Soil moisture supplies were rated 54 percent adequate and 41 percent surplus. Just 2 percent of the state's topsoil moisture supply was rated surplus on September 27th.

Wisconsin:

Although temperatures were higher than the previous week, wet weather continued to limit fieldwork and harvesting. Wet fields also resulted in many farmers waiting to finish winter wheat planting. Growers are hoping for dry, warm, and breezy days to bring corn and soybean moisture to acceptable levels and to allow harvest completion.

Across the reporting stations, precipitation ranged from 1.47 inches in Madison to 2.86 inches in La Crosse. Average temperatures ranged from 1 degree above to 2 degrees below normal. Average high temperatures ranged from 50 to 58 degrees, while average low temperatures ranged from 37 to 43 degrees. On average, there were 2.6 days suitable for fieldwork.

Corn mature was reported at 81 percent complete, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous week. Corn silage harvest continued, with 91 percent reported complete, and corn harvested for grain was reported at 9 percent complete, up 4 percentage points from the previous week. Some growers reported harvesting high moisture corn, but many reported little harvest completed last week due to moisture levels being too high and fields being wet. Many farmers are hoping for sunshine and warm winds to dry the corn down before continuing harvest to avoid high drying costs.

Soybean harvest was reported at 25 percent complete, an increase of 11 percentage points from the previous week. Many growers are hoping for a week of warm, sunny weather to get harvest done.

Fall tillage increased slightly to 21 percent complete, up 4 percentage points from the previous week. Fall tillage was slow due to wet fields and growers concentrating their efforts on corn and soybean harvesting.

Winter wheat planting was reported at 65 percent complete and 37 percent emerged. Planting was slowed by wet fields and delayed corn and soybean harvest. Previously planted winter wheat was reported as continuing to emerge.

Cranberry harvest was reported to be mostly done in Portage County, with variable yields and improvement in color reported.

Very good quality apple and potato crops were reported in Dunn County.

Manure hauling continued, but was slowed by wet weather.

The following were quotes from Farm Reporters and County Agriculture Agents:

In Clark County, there has only been one day suitable during the past week to combine beans, otherwise it was raining or very cloudy. It has rained about 2 inches in the last 3 days. If it doesn’t stop, it will be a mess in the bean fields and corn fields.

In Monroe County, very little field work was done this week due to wet fields. Corn for silage is ready but needs suitable weather to complete harvest. Farmers are looking to sell corn as high moisture when there is a suitable buyer.

In Trempealeau County, the corn and soybean harvest is very slow due to wet weather. Not much fall field work done for the same reason. A couple more inches of rain last week will make it difficult to harvest for a few days.

In the table below, there is a summary of the top soil moisture conditions across Minnesota and Wisconsin from the USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) summary.

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland top soil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry.  Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist.  Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet.  Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture.  Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

For additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications
/State_Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.asp

The CPC seasonal outlook for December through February calls for above normal temperatures and equal chances of below, near, and above normal precipitation across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/long_range/
seasonal.php?lead=01

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information please contact:

Jeffrey Boyne
Climate Services Focal Point
National Weather Service
La Crosse, WI 54601-3038

Telephone: 608-784-8275
E-mail: Jeff.Boyne@noaa.gov

Other Contacts:

For Local Agricultural Impacts:

http://www.csrees.usda.gov/Extension/

For state climate impacts:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/aasc.html