Winter 2011-12 Outlook
Updated Thursday, October 20, 2011 - Jeff Boyne

What is La Niña?
Winter Climatology
La Crosse, WI
Rochester, MN

On October 20, 2011, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their first outlook for the 2011-12 meteorological winter (December 1, 2011 to February 29, 2012).  A moderate La Niña in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States. They are forecasting an enhanced chance of below-normal temperatures across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and northern Illinois.  Their precipitation forecast is for enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation across Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of northern Iowa, and northern Illinois; and equal chances for below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal precipitation for the southern two-thirds of Iowa.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook

CPC United States Temperature Outlook

For the upcoming 2011-12 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature forecasts strongly reflect typical La Niña temperature anomalies throughout the United States.  This includes higher probabilities of warmer-than-normal conditions from Arizona and southern Utah east into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle; and in the western Hawaiian Islands, .  Meanwhile, colder-than-normal temperatures are expected across southern Alaska, along the West Coast, and from northern Idaho east into Michigan. Winter 2011-12 U.S. Temperature Outlook
CPC's Winter 2011-12
U. S. Temperature Outlook

CPC Local Temperature Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting an enhanced chance of below-normal temperatures across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

CPC United States Precipitation Outlook

For the upcoming 2011-12 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation forecasts strongly reflect typical La Niña precipitation anomalies throughout the United States.  This includes higher probabilities of wetter-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest and northern California east into Michigan; and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.  Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the southern United States and the interior of Alaska. 

 

2011-12 Winter U.S. Precipitation Outlook
CPC's Winter 2011-12
U. S. Precipitation Outlook

Local Precipitation Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting an enhanced chance of above-normal precipitation across southeast Minnesota, parts of northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

Local Snowfall Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) does not predict seasonal snowfall.  However local composite studies do indicate that there is an enhanced probability for above-normal seasonal snowfall during moderate La Niñas.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

For more details on La Niña, La Niña winters, potential wild cards that may affect this winter, and winter climatology, please click on the links below.

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