Winter 2012-13 Outlook
Updated Friday, October 19, 2012 - Jeff Boyne

What is La Niña?
Winter Climatology
La Crosse, WI
Rochester, MN

On November 15, 2012, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their second outlook for the 2012-13 meteorological winter (December 1, 2012 to February 28, 2013).  Unlike the past A Pacific Ocean is expected to be a dominant climate factor that will influence the December through February winter weather in the United States. They are forecasting an enhanced chance of below-normal temperatures across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and northern Illinois.  Their precipitation forecast is for enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation across Minnesota, Wisconsin, parts of northern Iowa, and northern Illinois; and equal chances for below-normal, near-normal, and above-normal precipitation for the southern two-thirds of Iowa.

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook

CPC United States Temperature Outlook

For the upcoming 2012-13 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting the following:

  • Enhanced probabilities for warmer-than-normal temperatures west of the Mississippi River.  The highest probabilities (greater than 40 percent) are located across southeast Idaho, eastern Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and the northern two-thirds of Alaska. 
  • Enhanced probabilities for colder-than-normal temperatures in Hawaii and most of Florida.
Winter 2012-13 U.S. Temperature Outlook
CPC's Winter 2012-13
U. S. Temperature Outlook

CPC Local Temperature Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting an enhanced chance of below-normal temperatures across southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

CPC United States Precipitation Outlook

For the upcoming 2011-12 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation forecasts strongly reflect typical La Niña precipitation anomalies throughout the United States.  This includes higher probabilities of wetter-than-normal conditions from the Pacific Northwest and northern California east into Michigan; and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.  Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across the southern United States and the interior of Alaska. 

  • Dryer-than-average conditions in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, including Idaho, western Montana, and portions of Wyoming, Utah and most of Nevada.
  • Dryer-than-average conditions in the upper Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Missouri and eastern parts of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and western Illinois.
  • Wetter-than-average conditions across the Gulf Coast states from the northern half of Florida to eastern Texas.

 

 

Winter 2012-13 U.S. Precipitation Outlook
CPC's Winter 2012-13
U. S. Precipitation Outlook

Local Precipitation Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting an enhanced chance of above-normal precipitation across southeast Minnesota, parts of northern Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

Local Snowfall Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) does not predict seasonal snowfall.  However local composite studies do indicate that there is an enhanced probability for above-normal seasonal snowfall during moderate La Niñas.  The links below provide more details on La Niña winters in the local area:

For more details on potential wild cards that may affect this winter, and winter climatology, please click on the links below.

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