Winter 2013-14 Outlook
Updated Thursday, November 21, 2013 - Jeff Boyne

Winter Climatology
La Crosse, WI
Rochester, MN

On November 21, 2013, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their outlook for the 2012-13 meteorological winter (December 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014).  Water temperatures over the central equatorial Pacific are expected to remain near normal throughout the upcoming winter.  When this occurs, these winters are called "neutral" to "La Nada" winters.  This is the same type of winter that we had last winter.  However this does not mean that this winter will be the same.  La Nada winters tend to be quite variable with their temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall.  This is the first time since the early 1990s that we have had consecutive La Nada winters. 

Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook

CPC Temperature Outlook

For the upcoming 2013-14 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting enhanced probabilties for below-normal temperatures across the Northern Plains.  Meanwhile, there is an enhancement in the probabilities for above-normal temperatures in western Alaska, from New Mexico east to Alabama, and in New England. 

Locally, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal temperatures for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  This fits in well with the 20 La Nada winters since 1950.  Ten of these winters experienced above-normal temperatures.  Meanwhile the other ten winters experienced below-normal temperatures.

Winter 2013-14 U.S. Temperature Outlook
CPC's Winter 2013-14
U. S. Temperature Outlook


CPC United States Precipitation Outlook 

For the upcoming 2013-14 winter, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting enhanced probabilties for below-normal precipitation across Montana and northern Wyoming.  Meanwhile, there is an enhancement in the probabilities for above-normal precipitation in Alaska's Inside Passage, from Arizona east into west Texas, and across the southeast United States.

Locally, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting equal chances of above-, below-, and near-normal precipitation for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.  Prior to the winter of 1989-90, 11 of 13 La Nada winters were drier-than-normal.  Since then, 5 out 7 La Nada winters have been wetter-than-normal.  The latter trend has made this forecast uncertain; thus, equal chances.

Winter 2013-14 U.S. Temperature Outlook
CPC's Winter 2013-14
U. S. Precipitation Outlook

 The video below provides more background on how the Climate Prediction Center made this forecast along with the potentail wild cards that may affect the 2013-14 winter. 

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