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Colorado Fire Weather Zone 215

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
350 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN ABNORMALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THIS TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN AND SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PERIOD.
LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO FORECASTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO ON SATURDAY. WHERE THIS LOW FORMS WILL DICTATE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AFTER
1400 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO. ELSEWHERE
LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO SATURDAY EVENING...SPREADING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ACROSS THE PLAINS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE STORMS. THE TROUGH REMAIN
OVER COLORADO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH AN INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH WARMER
AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

       ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...
  ...ALL SURFACE WINDS ARE 20-FOOT...10-MINUTE AVERAGED WINDS...
  ...CWR IS CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN - 0.10 INCH OR MORE LIQUID...
  ...24 HR TRENDS ARE BASED ON AVERAGES OVER THE RESPECTIVE ZONE
        GROUPS AND MAY NOT MATCH THE ACTUAL FORECAST VALUES
                     SHOWN IN THOSE GROUPS...

LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON
AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
INCLUDING ESTES PARK...GLENDEVEY...LARAMIE RIVER VALLEY...
NEDERLAND...RED FEATHER LAKES...BAILEY...CENTRAL CITY...
EVERGREEN...GEORGETOWN...IDAHO SPRINGS...NORTHERN RAMPART
RANGE...TARRYALL...WESTCREEK
350 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-35%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41-49.
   24 HR TREND......4-7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%.
   24 HR TREND......15-20% DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......
   VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...WEST 9-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
   RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....WEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 MODERATE.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
10K FT FREE WINDS...SOUTHWEST 30-40 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......16500-17500 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. BELOW 1000 FT
                    AGL AFTER 0200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    1200 UNTIL 1500...THEN SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61-71.
   24 HR TREND......7-10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-26%.
   24 HR TREND......7-10% WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......
   VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
   RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.
CWR.................0 PERCENT UNTIL 1200...THEN 10 PERCENT.
10K FT FREE WINDS...SOUTH 25-35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......BELOW 1000 FT AGL UNTIL 0700. 15000-16000 FT
                    AGL AFTER 0900.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. VERY GOOD AFTER 1000.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....39-45.
   24 HR TREND......4-7 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........60-70%.
   24 HR TREND......15-20% WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......
   VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...WEST 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
   RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....WEST 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
10K FT FREE WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6500-7500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2300...THEN FAIR.

.SUNDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    1200...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-63.
   24 HR TREND......4-7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........29-39%.
   24 HR TREND......7-10% WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......
   VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...NORTHWEST 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
   RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....NORTHWEST 8-14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 4.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
10K FT FREE WINDS...WEST 15-20 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......15500-16500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0800...THEN VERY GOOD.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.