Colorado Fire Weather Zone 226

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FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR S CNTRL AND SERN COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 701 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014 .DISCUSSION... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL THREATS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM WITH 80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND WHERE IT TRACKS. MODEL PROJECTIONS HAVE WAVERED FROM A TRACK ACROSS COLORADO TO ONE THAT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FURTHER NORTH THE TRACK...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK/SOLUTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA CAN BE INTERROGATED. SMOKE DISPERSAL SHOULD RUN IN THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE OVER MANY FIRE DISTRICT LOCATIONS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY- INCLUDING...BLACK FOREST...MONUMENT 701 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014 .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-86F. MIN HUMIDITY........18-20 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 15K FT MSL WINDS....WEST 5-7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST UP TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 0800...THEN 14500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1000. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-57F. MAX HUMIDITY........64-80 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE EVENING. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 15K FT MSL WINDS....EAST 5-8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......10500 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 3000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0400. POOR AFTER 0500. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-86F. MIN HUMIDITY........19-22 PERCENT. CHC OF WETTING RAIN.0 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. 15K FT MSL WINDS....EAST UP TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......11000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 13 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0700. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 49 TO 56. HIGHS 74 TO 82. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 47 TO 55. HIGHS 65 TO 74. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 45 TO 52. HIGHS 67 TO 74. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44 TO 51. HIGHS 65 TO 72. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44 TO 49. HIGHS 64 TO 71.
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