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NATIONAL WESTERN STOCK SHOW WEATHER STATISTICS
(1906-2004)
I PREFACE
The purpose of this publication is to analyze the notion from both
the media and private citizen that it is always cold and snowy during
the National Western Stock Show. This study began as a climatology
paper while I was a student at Metrolpolitan State College of Denver.
Since then, the usefulness of the information to the public and media
has propelled me to further analyze the data and provide a yearly
update to the statistics at the completion of each yearly stock show
event.
II INTRODUCTION
Every January since 1906 the National Western Stock Show comes to town.
Several days before the stock show approaches questions are brought up
by citizens and the media of the notion that its always cold and snowy
during the stock show. A look at stock show statistics from 1906-2004
reveals a different scenario. Lets take a look at the numbers.
The first four years the stock show was held (1906-1910) revealed that
the average temperature during the event was 43.6 degrees, 12.9 degrees
above normal for that time of year. In fact, 1909 was the warmest stock
show on record with a departure from normal of 16.0 degrees.
Cold spells were few and far between. Extreme departures from normal only
lasted a year or two at a time. From 1962-1963 the average temperature was
8.6 degrees, 20.4 degrees below normal. This was the coldest consecutive
stretch on record.
Comparing the 30 year climatological temperatures to the observed tempera-
tures for the period 1971-2000 shows
As far as snowfall is concerned, lets look at the past 34 years of data
(1971-2004) and compare that to the 30 year average (1971-2000). Two
significant snowstorms occurred, one in 1992 and another in 1987. These
two storms combined for 36.6 inches of snow.
To summarize, the mean temperature during the National Western Stock Show
from 1906-2004 is 31.7 degrees. The normal during the same period is 29.1
degrees, giving a departure from normal of +2.6 degrees. This indicates
that the mean temperature is warmer than normal during the National Western
Stock Show, disproving the perception that its always cold. But it also
depends on your perspective..."Since 31.7 degrees is below freezing...it
would then depend on if you think below freezing is cold or not!"
Below is a chart of yearly observed and climatological normal temperatures
and their departure from normal during the National Western Stock Show
from 1906 through 2004.
Note: Temperatures are in degrees Fahrenheit and precipitation is in inches.
Year Avg Avg Normal Normal Normal Departure Total Total
High Low Mean High Low Mean From Norm Snowfall Precip
2004 52.6 19.4 36.0 43.1 15.1 29.1 + 6.9 1.3 0.09
2003 50.3 17.9 34.1 43.2 15.1 29.2 + 4.9 Trace Trace
2002 44.8 17.0 30.9 43.3 15.2 29.3 + 1.6 3.6 0.18
2001 47.1 16.3 31.7 43.0 14.9 29.0 + 2.7 2.7 0.14
2000 54.4 23.3 38.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 9.9 0.0 0.00
1999 52.6 25.3 39.0 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 9.9 2.6 0.20
1998 45.4 20.6 33.0 43.1 15.1 29.1 + 3.9 Trace Trace
1997 36.5 11.9 24.2 43.2 15.1 29.2 + 5.0 2.1 0.08
1996 51.1 17.7 34.4 43.0 14.9 29.0 + 5.4 3.5 0.03
1995 49.9 23.5 36.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.7 Trace Trace
1994 54.4 23.1 38.8 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 9.7 0.5 0.05
1993 31.5 10.0 20.8 43.0 14.9 29.0 - 8.2 2.0 0.11
1992 39.5 12.3 25.9 43.0 14.9 29.0 - 3.1 22.8 1.10
1991 46.5 18.6 32.6 43.0 14.9 29.0 + 3.6 7.8 0.42
1990 49.5 24.3 36.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.9 8.2 0.72
1989 48.5 18.5 33.5 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 4.5 2.9 0.16
1988 38.5 16.0 27.3 43.1 15.0 29.1 - 1.8 4.0 0.30
1987 35.5 10.9 23.2 43.2 15.1 29.2 - 6.0 13.8 0.45
1986 58.7 27.8 43.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 14.3 0.0 0.00
1985 41.3 12.8 27.1 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 1.9 2.3 0.11
1984 25.3 3.5 14.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 14.6 3.1 0.15
1983 38.2 20.7 29.5 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 0.5 0.3 0.05
1982 44.7 18.4 31.6 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 2.5 0.2 0.02
1981 51.8 24.5 38.2 43.2 15.1 29.2 + 9.0 1.8 0.10
1980 44.6 25.2 34.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.9 5.6 0.34
1979 40.3 14.3 27.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 1.7 2.2 0.09
1978 35.1 12.0 23.6 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 5.4 3.0 0.17
1977 49.2 17.8 33.5 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 4.5 1.7 0.12
1976 50.9 22.1 36.5 43.2 15.1 29.2 + 7.3 2.7 0.17
1975 48.3 16.4 32.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 3.4 0.3 0.03
1974 47.7 21.0 34.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.4 0.1 0.39
1973 53.2 29.1 41.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.2 7.5 0.92
1972 51.0 21.6 36.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.3 0.0 0.00
1971 54.8 25.6 40.2 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 11.1 0.0 0.06
1970 54.2 24.2 39.2 43.2 15.1 29.2 + 10.0 0.0 0.00
1969 51.7 21.0 36.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.4 0.0 0.00
1968 48.9 18.6 33.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 4.8 0.0 0.00
1967 51.1 16.6 33.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 4.9 6.4 0.47
1966 33.1 6.8 20.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 7.0 1.9 0.13
1965 52.2 24.8 38.5 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 9.5 0.0 0.00
1964 39.2 8.7 24.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 5.0 1.3 0.13
1963 21.3 -5.3 8.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 21.0 1.0 0.09
1962 21.8 -3.4 9.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 19.8 2.9 0.23
1961 47.2 25.2 36.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.2 0.1 0.01
1960 36.4 16.1 26.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 2.7 8.4 0.70
1959 43.3 16.6 30.0 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 0.9 2.8 0.21
1958 48.4 21.4 34.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.9 3.2 0.33
1957 44.9 14.7 29.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 0.8 0.7 0.03
1956 40.8 19.3 30.1 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 1.1 0.3 0.03
1955 33.3 12.4 22.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 6.1 0.2 0.02
1954 53.4 20.0 36.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.7 0.3 0.01
1953 53.1 27.3 40.2 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 11.1 0.0 0.00
1952 53.3 29.2 41.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.3 0.0 0.00
1951 45.8 23.4 34.6 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.6 0.7 0.05
1950 54.1 19.0 36.6 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.6 0.3 0.02
1949 31.2 9.9 20.6 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 8.4 0.0 0.00
1948 36.3 16.3 26.3 43.1 15.0 29.1 - 2.8 11.5 0.90
1947 39.3 20.8 30.1 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 1.1 1.5 0.03
1946 46.9 20.8 33.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 4.9 4.2 0.22
1945 39.2 24.6 31.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 2.9 4.1 0.24
1944 53.8 29.8 41.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.8 0.0 0.00
1943 41.6 16.9 29.3 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 0.3 3.2 0.26
1942 48.3 27.4 37.9 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 8.9 0.0 0.00
1941 46.5 25.8 36.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 7.2 0.0 0.00
1940 32.2 9.1 20.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 8.3 4.9 0.22
1939 39.3 17.5 28.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 0.6 0.9 0.04
1938 50.9 31.9 41.4 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.4 1.0 0.09
1937 24.0 4.1 14.1 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 12.1 3.0 0.15
1936 42.4 20.6 31.5 43.3 15.1 29.2 + 2.3 1.3 0.14
1935 43.3 21.1 32.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 3.2 0.0 0.03
1934 52.3 29.9 41.1 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.1 0.0 0.00
1933 45.6 23.8 34.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.7 0.0 0.00
1932 36.0 18.4 27.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 1.8 2.6 0.12
1931 47.3 25.5 36.4 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 7.3 0.0 0.00
1930 20.5 -2.6 9.0 43.3 15.1 29.2 - 20.2 0.8 0.02
1929 43.9 24.0 34.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 5.0 0.0 0.00
1928 41.3 22.3 31.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 2.8 0.1 0.02
1927 40.6 16.8 28.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 0.3 0.5 0.04
1926 33.1 14.1 23.6 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 5.4 2.1 0.15
1925 50.8 26.3 38.6 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 9.5 0.0 0.00
1924 43.5 20.5 32.0 43.4 15.3 29.4 + 2.6 1.0 Missing
1923 55.5 28.1 41.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 12.8 0.0 0.00
1922 32.5 9.5 21.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 8.0 1.8 0.07
1921 50.9 28.5 39.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 10.7 0.0 0.00
1920 48.9 29.4 39.2 43.1 15.0 29.1 + 10.0 0.0 0.00
1919 49.6 28.5 39.1 43.3 15.1 29.2 + 9.9 0.0 0.00
1918 39.6 15.3 27.5 43.4 15.3 29.4 - 1.9 3.4 0.29
1917 40.7 13.8 27.3 43.7 15.5 29.6 - 2.3 0.0 0.00
1916 30.9 8.5 19.7 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 9.3 4.7 0.27
1915 39.5 14.0 26.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 2.2 1.0 0.04
1914 47.7 27.7 37.7 43.2 15.0 29.1 + 8.6 0.1 0.01
1913 47.3 23.8 35.6 43.3 15.2 29.3 + 6.3 1.0 Missing
1912 47.7 23.2 35.5 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 6.5 0.4 0.02
1911 53.7 26.7 40.2 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 11.2 1.6 0.11
1910 50.8 26.8 38.8 43.0 15.0 29.0 - 9.8 0.0 0.00
1909 54.2 35.7 45.0 43.0 15.0 29.0 + 16.0 0.0 0.03
1908 48.2 24.5 36.4 43.3 15.2 29.3 + 14.0 0.0 0.00
1907 43.3 17.8 30.6 43.5 15.3 29.4 + 14.1 3.7 0.19
1906 54.3 21.4 37.9 44.6 16.6 30.6 + 7.3 0.6 Missing
Mean observed high...44.2 Mean normal high .....43.1 Departure...+ 1.1
Mean observed low....19.3 Mean normal low.......15.1 Departure...+ 4.2
Mean observed........31.8 Mean normal average...29.1 Departure...+ 2.7
Top 10 coldest stock show years Top 10 warmest stock show years
(mean temperature) (mean temperature)
1. 1963 (8.0 degrees) 1909 (45.0 degrees)
2. 1930 (9.0 degrees) 1986 (43.3 degrees)
3. 1962 (9.2 degrees) 1923, 1944 (41.8 degrees)
4. 1937 (14.1 degrees) 1938 (41.4 degrees)
5. 1984 (14.4 degrees) 1952 (41.3 degrees)
6. 1916 (19.7 degrees) 1973 (41.2 degrees)
7. 1949 (20.6 degrees) 1934 (41.1 degrees)
8. 1940 (20.7 degrees) 1911, 1953, 1971 (40.2 degrees)
9. 1993 (20.8 degrees) 1921 (39.7 degrees)
10. 1955 (22.9 degrees) 1920, 1970 (39.2 degrees)
Mean observed snowfall (1906-2004)............................................ 2.0 inches
Mean observed snowfall (1971-2004)............................................ 3.2 inches
Mean normal snowfall (1971-2004) based on 30 year average (1971-2000)......... 3.0 inches
Mean snowfall departure (1971-2004) based on 30 year average (1971-2000)...... +0.2 inch
Mean observed precipitation (1906-2004)....................................... 0.13 inch
Mean observed precipitation (1971-2004)....................................... 0.20 inch
Mean observed precipitation (1971-2004) based on 30 year average (1971-2000).. 0.23 inch
Mean precipitation departure (1971-2004) based on 30 year average (1971-2000). -0.03 inch
Top 10 snowiest stock show years
1. 1992 (22.8 inches)
2. 1987 (13.8 inches)
3. 1948 (11.5 inches)
4. 1960 ( 8.4 inches)
5. 1990 ( 8.2 inches)
6. 1991 ( 7.8 inches)
7. 1973 ( 7.5 inches)
8. 1967 ( 6.4 inches)
9. 1980 ( 5.6 inches)
10. 1940 ( 4.9 inches)
David Thede
Meteorologist - Senior Forecaster
National Weather Service Goodland, KS
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