000
FXUS63 KABR 100939
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ARCTIC SFC HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS ARE WELL BELOW ZERO
AND THE USUAL COLD SPOT IN ABR...SITTING AT 21 BELOW ZERO. HAVE
ALSO SEEN AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS/FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA...AND A MORE PATCHY AREA OF FOG IN THE JAMES VALLEY. HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ADDED THESE WX ELEMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS. VSBYS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1/4SM AT TIMES AT BOTH KMBG AND
KPIR.

SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT THE
STRATUS AND FOG TO EVENTUALLY BURN OFF BY MID DAY. HAVE LOWERED
HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. STARTING OFF
THE DAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO
MIXING TO SPEAK OF. A FRESH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPS OWN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EASTERN CWA WAS STUCK IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. INTERESTING TO LOOK AT THE SREF PLUMES FOR 2M
TEMPS THIS MORNING. THE COLDEST CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS ARE ACTUALLY
SHOWING THE CORRECT TEMPS...SO FOLLOWED THOSE CURVES TO TODAYS
HIGHS AND THEY KEEP THE EASTERN CWA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THE COLD CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS FOR ABR HAD A
HIGH OF 5 DEGREES. MAY ACTUALLY NOT BE A BAD FORECAST GIVEN WE
WILL START OFF AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO. FORECAST WILL REFLECT A HIGH
OF 5 TO 10 IN THE JAMES VALLEY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A GOOD DROP OFF TONIGHT...BEFORE TEMPS STEADY OUT LATER
DURING THE NIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH. NO
APPRECIABLE WAA TO SPEAK OF SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL RISE
IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MORE SO A STEADYING OUT. MAY NEED TO LOWER
EVEN A FEW MORE DEGREES.

NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE WEAK WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO FRIDAY. HAVE EXPANDED POPS
WEST A BIT FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND INCREASED TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN CWA. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SO ONLY EXPECTING VERY
LIGHT ACCUMS.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND REGION WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
RIDING AROUND IT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST OF
THESE WAVES WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA ON
SATURDAY...WITH WEAKER WAVES COMING THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING...BUT A QUICK MOVING
ALMOST CLIPPER TYPE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK FROM EASTERN MONTANA ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA TO MISSOURI BY SATURDAY
EVENING. MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...WITH
THE BEST LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL
KEEP JUST A SCHC MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BEGIN
TRENDING POPS UP A BIT ON SATURDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. HIGH PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND
OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

H85 TEMPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF THE PERIOD...THEN ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
AFTER THAT. WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO
STICK WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE. 


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WESTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AFFECTING KABR...KMBG AND
KPIR. IFR TO LIFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR. LOOK FOR THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z. THE LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER A BIT
LONGER...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA AFTER
18Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN