000
FXUS63 KABR 080232
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
832 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...
CIGS THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN AOA 12KFT...AND ANY ECHOS ON RADAR ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY BETWEEN 500/600 HPA...ABOUT 40J/KG CAPE...HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOME OBSERVED LIGHTNING SOUTH OF THE WHITE RIVER.
THEREFORE...AMENDED FORECAST FOR MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN
UNCHANGED. NO CHANGES TO AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPS MILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO ONLY BRING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. MADE FEW CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST. COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND SYSTEM ON SUNDAY
FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL VERY MILD. GFS/NAM MOSTLY
DRY WITH SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.


MID-TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BASED MORE OFF THE 12Z GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS THAN THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION...SHOULD BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
/EITHER ALOFT OR AT THE SURFACE/ IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WORKING
SEWD THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CAA FOLLOWING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY APPEARS
TO BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED...AS BY TUESDAY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO
SET BACK UP ACROSS THE CWA...STARTING OUT WEST FIRST...AND THEN
SPREADING FURTHER EAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH
SOUTHERLY 925HPA WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 850HPA WINDS OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD END UP BEING A 
RATHER BREEZY/WINDY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. OVERALL...IT STILL
APPEARS AS THOUGH PRETTY MUCH EVERY FORECAST PERIOD BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM SET TO MOVE
THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DIVERGE QUITE A BIT BY THIS TIME AS WELL. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
GFS SEEMS FASTER WHILE ECMWF SEEMS DEEPER. THEREFORE...WENT WITH
SLIGHT POPS THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. AS MODELS GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE.





&&

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY
NORTH.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SCARLETT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN