000 FXUS61 KALY 081139 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 640 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTHEAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUMP MILD AIR OUR WAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 400 AM...AN AMAZING CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES THIS OVERNIGHT VERSUS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN MANY CASES...THEY ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A BREEZE AND PATCHY CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS ARE DUE TO A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR WHAT'S LEFT OF ONE) WORKING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND EVENTUALLY THE CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON (ACCORDING TO IR SATELLITE PICTURES). THE CLOUDS LOOK TO LEAVE AROUND SUNRISE. IF THEY DO...TEMPERATURES COULD DROP A FEW POINTS...BUT WITH THE BREEZE...THEY WILL REMAIN MUCH MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 40. THE PASSAGE OF THE VERY WEAK FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO COOL TEMPS. IN FACT...H850 TEMPS MIGHT ACTUALLY A WARM A POINT OR SO TODAY TO ABOUT +9C. FULL MIXING WOULD TRANSLATE TO TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WHILE THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...MIXING TO ABOUT THE 925MB WILL ALLOW READINGS TO REACH BETWEEN 55 TO AROUND 60 IN MOST PLACES...AND AS HIGH AS THE MID 60S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE VALUES ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. A LIGHT TO WESTERLY BREEZE WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... BY TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL REMAIN CLEAR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE BUILDS RIGHT OVER TOP OF US. THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONSIDERING THE LENGTH OF NIGHT (NOW AROUND 10 HOURS). HOWEVER...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A LITTLE MORE...HOVERING AROUND +10C. THIS MILD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ACTUALLY HELP OFFSET THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE WARMER MET/COOLER MAVS. WE FEEL OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOME OF COLDER SHELTERED VALLEYS...OTHERWISE 35 TO 40 IN MOST PLACES. MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A RIDGE ALOFT...A BONAFIDE BERMUDA HIGH IN NOVEMBER. H850 TEMPERATURES COULD REACH OVER +12C IN OUR REGION. THE MIXING LEVEL LOOKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY. WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT 55 TO 60 HIGHER TERRAIN. RIGHT NOW...THESE READINGS LOOK A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON NOVEMBER BUT IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. ON MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND A BREEZE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY QUITE MILD MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY DROPPING TO THE 45 TO 50 RANGE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 IN OUR NORTHEAST AREAS WHICH WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNRISE WITH H850 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO ABOUT +6C. BY TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES FROM ONE ANOTHER. THE 00Z/06ZS NAM INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WOULD MOVE THROUGH WILL LITTLE FANFARE...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT TOTALLY SUPPORT THIS DECISION. FOR ONE THING...AN UNSEASONABLY LATE HURRICANE (IDA) LURKS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND BY THIS TIME...WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE MATTERS...A POTENT SHORT WAVE...COMING OFF THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO BUCKLE THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND FROM AN UPPER AIR LOW AT THE VERY LEAST SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE NAM IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BUT OF COURSE ONLY GOES OUT 84 HOURS. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IDA AND OR THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER NORTH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z EUROPEAN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN GEM LEANS MORE WITH THE NAM...KEEPING MOST OF THE MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL CUTOFF? IF IT CUTS OFF FURTHER SOUTH...WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA (ALONG WITH ITS MOISTURE) WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE UP INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ASSIGN A 50 POP AND LET IT GO AT THAT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW IN THE DACKS BY LATE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECIPITATION TAKE PLACE. GENERALLY WENT WITH A MAV/MET BLEND THROUGHOUT WITH SOME LOCAL TWEAKING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... EXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND THE LAST 12 HOURS...THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIR AND DRY AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WILL BE DECREASING POPS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING THE SKY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVES TO THE EAST. AFTER THAT...THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN WILL LINGER THE LONGEST. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEMPS THERE SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BETWEEN 20 TO 30 AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 40S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AFTER THURSDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE 25 TO 30...AND 30 TO 35 FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ON SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AS THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE LOWEST POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HAS NEARLY DISIPATED AS OF 1130Z. HAVE FORECAST VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KGFL LATE TONIGHT WHEN MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE DUE TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. OTHERWISE MAINLY P6SM SKC TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 10 KTS INITIALLY AT KALB...THEN SHIFT TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AT KPOU EXPECT WINDS TO BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AT KGFL A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 KTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING...THEN CALM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MON-MON NGT...VFR...NO WX. TUE-WED...CHC -SHRA/-RA...CHC MVFR CIG/VSBY. WED NITE-THU...VFR...NO WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE SOME CONCERN THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM IDA COULD HEAD OUR WAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL...BUT SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER OTHER SCENARIOS KEEP US MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE SAME TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED FOR ANY UPDATES CONCERNING THIS UPCOMING SCENARIO. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...GJM AVIATION...GJM HYDROLOGY...HWJIV