000 FXUS63 KAPX 080312 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1012 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/ THE WARM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY...WERE COURTESY OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BARELY NOTICED TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN BEHIND. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY... CAUSING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS A WARM FRONT. THIS LOW...WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. JH && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 927 PM/...TONIGHT AN UNUSUALLY QUIET NOV NIGHT. SKIES ARE CLEAR. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY PRETTY MUCH A NON-ENTITY...AND APPEARS TO BE IN PIECES. IT CLEARED EASTERN UPPER MI AND THE STRAITS REGION...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. BUT NO REAL SIGN OF ANY INROADS IN NORTHERN LOWER...WHERE DEWIES HOVER IN THE 40S (EXCEPT WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS DRAGGED THEM LOWER). THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG. VERY DRY AIR IS MOVING IN JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE... BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLING...NOT QUITE SURE WE/LL SEE ENOUGH MIXING TO ELIMINATE SHALLOW GROUND FOG (THOUGH SHOULD NOT SEE WORSE THAN THAT). WILL ADD A TOUCH OF FOG. HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS/DEWIES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPS VARY CONSIDERABLY RIGHT NOW (37 IN GRAYLING...52 IN TVC) AND THE RANGE WILL REMAIN QUITE WIDE. JZ && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 349 PM/...SUNDAY AND BEYOND SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST...REMAINS A DOMINATE INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED LOW AND MID LEVEL MSTR OVER NRN MI THROUGH THE AFTN WITH 850/500MB RH UNDER 50 PCT. HOWEVER MSTR RETURN INTO THE NRN LAKES INCREASES BY EVENING...AS A PLAINS STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 850MB DEW PTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 0Z OVER EAST UPPER BY 00Z MONDAY...WHILE INCREASING TO AROUND 4C OVER NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TO THE STRAITS. OVERALL WILL MENTION SOME MORNING SUN SUNDAY WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS BUT REMAINING DRY THRU THE AFTN. WILL MENTION AFTERNOON HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN LOWER AS A WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH TO THE STRAITS...WILL MAINTAIN AFTN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER EAST UPPER. PCPN CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...WITH 850MB DEW PTS INCREASING TO 6C OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND 3C OVER EAST UPPER...WHILE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MSTR BTWN 750/500MB. BEST AND QUICKEST MID LEVEL MSTR INCREASE OVER EAST UPPER AROUND 06Z...AND OVER NRN LOWER AFT 06Z MONDAY BUT REMAINING LIMITED. LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT SUPPLIED BY UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY...WHILE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120KT 300MB JET SLIDES OVER NRN MI. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TREND OF LOW POPS OVER EAST UPPER AND THE WRN LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY. LOWS WILL BE ABT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HELPED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S (NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 29 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF NRN MI). MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...WILL MENTION A SMALL CHC OF POPS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM SWEEPS OVER THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL NOT OVERALL IMPRESSIVE WITH MSTR AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO EXIT SE NEAR SAGINAW BAY AROUND 00Z TUESDAY...WHILE A 500MB TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE WRN LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE TO REBUILD OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE SFC FEATURE PUSHES FURTHER EAST. DRIER AIR AND COOLER 850MB TEMPS TO FILTER INTO THE NRN LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RESETTLES OVER THE REGION. OVERALL WILL LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME SRN/SE CWA THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING...WITH DRY CONDS OVERNIGHT. WILL MENTION OVERNIGHT LOWS LOWER THAN SUNDAY NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 0C OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE NRN LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH TUESDAY PUSHES EAST AND UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING CONVERGING OVER THE STATE...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE SFC THROUGH 500MB. TUESDAY HOWEVER...WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS DUE TO PRESENCE OF MSTR IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS IN RESPONSE TO 500MB TROUGH SWEEPING OVER THE NRN LAKES. LAKES EFFECTS WILL BE MARGINAL TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -4C WHILE NRN LAKE MI WATER TEMPS LINGER AROUND 8C/9C. WINDS TUESDAY BTWN N/NW HOWEVER 850/500MB RH DRIES TO 40/50PCT BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE WILL MENTION SOME LAKES CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN LAKES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER REMAINING DRY. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE 40S IN RESPONSE TO COOLER 850MB TEMPS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES THURSDAY... WHILE A 500MB LOW MOVING OVER CENTRAL CANADA SWEEPS A TROUGH OVER THE LAKES SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE ERN LAKES EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM PUSHES NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEMS PUSH INTO SRN MI BY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NRN LAKES DIFFICULT THRU THE PD DUE TO LATEST PATTERNS AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND LOCATIONS. HOWEVER SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED OFF AND ON DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WHILE LOWS REMAIN IN THE 30S. SWR && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/ HAVE CANCELLED ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. WINDS/WAVES HAVE SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN THE NORTHERN LAKE MI BUOY HAS WAVES OF JUST 3FT. ONLY REAL CONCERN AT THE MOMENT IS WHITEFISH PT...WHICH IS GUSTING INTO THE LOW 20S KTS. BUT THE WEST FETCH SHIELDS THE BAY ITSELF FROM THE THE BETTER WINDS/WAVES. JZ && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 1012 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS VFR...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG. WEAK COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THRU THE AREA WILL HAVE ALMOST NO IMPACT ON OUR WX. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. PLN WILL DEAL WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG TONIGHT...WITH IFR VSBYS AT TIMES. JZ && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. LH...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$