000
FXUS63 KBIS 092214
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
414 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE PATCHY
FREEZING FOG. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. GRADUAL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA HAD PATCHY 
FOG AND STRATUS LAST NIGHT AND TEMPS WERE SLOW TO RECOVER TODAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS ANOTHER PERIOD OF FREEZING FOG TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF THE 
SOUTHWEST WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT FOG TONIGHT. 

ON WEDNESDAY WEAK BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THURSDAY. I KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
FOR THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPOSPHERIC UNDULATION WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GEM/ECMWF/NAM MODELS MOVE 
THIS THE FARTHEST WEST...WITH GFS A BIT SLOWER AND FURTHER EAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING IN AN ARCTIC PUSH WITH COLDER AIR...AND
SOME SNOW. 


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE AFTER-EFFECTS OF THE 
UPPER LOW WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WITH 
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION IN THE UPPER LOWS 
WAKE...IT LOOKS TO BE COLD WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW 
SHOWERS SAT DAYTIME. DECREASED FORECAST HIGHS BY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES 
FOR SATURDAY AND ALSO LOWERED NIGHTTIME LOWS. I BELIEVE THESE TEMPS 
WILL NEED TO BE TRENDED DOWN A TAD MORE BEFORE ALL IS DONE. 
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF RETURN FLOW AND THE SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION 
OF THE SFC HIGH...TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED AGAIN FOR SUNDAY. THE 
LATEST EC AND GFS DO DEPICT THE SFC HIGH LINGERING OVER THE LOCAL 
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND IF THIS VERIFIES WE WILL NEED 
TO LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS BY 10 DEGREES AS WELL AS LOWERING NIGHTTIME 
LOWS SAT AND SUN NIGHT. 

A WARMING TREND WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
NUDGES EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS.   


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM /AVIATION...NH