000 FXUS61 KBTV 041958 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 358 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. SUNSHINE AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...VORT THAT DOVE INTO BASE OF UPPER LEVEL TROF TODAY IS HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL VORT MOVES COMPLETELY EAST OF THE CWA. AS VORT PUSHES EAST THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GO ALONG WITH IT. WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND DEPARTING TROF. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEY AND UPPER 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 850 TEMPS ARE BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A DRY DAY SUNDAY. PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH OVERSTAYED ITS WELCOME WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH OUT OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION TOWARDS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TO KEEP SUNDAY DRY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR A DAY. VERY COLD 850 TEMPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY SO ONLY EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOWER 70S...DESPITE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE RETURNING. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN INTRODUCE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL HAVE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND SHOWWALTERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING IN THE MODEL DATA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL TOTALS ARE ALSO POINTING TO SOME CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CONTINUED COLD POOL ALOFT INDICATE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH EXPECT CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY PERSISTENT THROUGH THE NEAR/SHORT TERM FORECASTS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S IN THE BIGGER VALLEYS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MINS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 357 PM EDT SATURDAY...GFS MODEL SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...AS A WARM FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AROUND 00Z SUNDAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. EXPECT LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...WITH LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...WGH