000 FXUS61 KCLE 251701 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1201 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A NARROW DRY SLOT WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL OHIO JUST BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN PA. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED WITH SHORT WAVE NOW CENTERED ALONG THE MI/IN/OH BORDER. THIS FEATURE MAY SPREAD A FEW SHOWERS BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CONTINUE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THEIR MAX FOR THE DAY AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS COMPETING WITH WEAK HEATING IN KEEPING READINGS FAIR STEADY. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WITH NOT ALL THAT MUCH LIFT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. COULD STILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PATCHES OF RAIN SO HAVE CONTINUED A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WITH THE DRIZZLE. IN ANY EVENT RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. EXPECT TO SEE THESE AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THANKSGIVING DAY. ADDITIONAL LIFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND INCREASING COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY EVENING POINT TO CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN. HOWEVER THE COLDER AIR MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE. DOESNT LOOK LIKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARM GROUND BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE A DUSTING ON GRASSY AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IT LOOKS TO SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH EXTREME EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES IN NW PA WHERE THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ASSIST WITH ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS POINT CAN NOT RULE OUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BUT WILL LIKELY NEVER SEE MORE THAN AN INCH OR 2 ON THE WARM GROUND. IT WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ON FRIDAY BUT WILL RECOVER BY SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODELS IN FAIRLY REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RANGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEAR CHICAGO. ALL MODELS SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAD CHC POPS IN GRIDS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING SIMILAR POPS. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ECMWF AND GFS QUITE DIFFERENT IN SOLUTIONS. GFS DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN RESPONSE TO STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE ECMWF KEEPS SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN GFS BRINGING STRONG LOW PRESSURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILE ECMWF TAKES DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW DIDN/T LEAN IN ANY PARTICULAR DIRECTION GIVEN SUCH DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. CONTINUED WITH LOW CHC POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FIRST OF A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO HAS JUST PASSED EAST OF TAF SITES TAKING INITIAL BAND OF SHRA AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT. DRY SLOT HAD BROUGHT SOME VFR AREAS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THIS TO PROGRESS EAST REST OF AFTERNOON WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR OVER ALL AREAS GOING INTO TONIGHT AND WITH GRADUAL AIRMASS COOLING SHOULD SEE CIGS LOWER TO LOW END MVFR OR IFR. SOME MVFR FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN MANY LOCATIONS. SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA OR DRIZZLE ALSO EXPECTED. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS AND VSBY'S EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE LATER THU MORNING INTO EARLY THU AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR TO CONTINUE INTO FRI SHIFTING INTO THE SNOWBELT LATER FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VFR RETURNS SAT INTO SUN THEN AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WEST LATER SUN AND ANYWHERE SUN NIGHT AND MON. && .MARINE... WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WITH OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND THEN BACK TO WEST FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS IS WHEN GRADIENT WILL BE STRONGEST. STILL EXPECTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES DURING THIS TIME OVER THE LAKE BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR HEADLINES...THINKING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY CAN SEE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT THEN. SMALL CRAFT POSSIBLY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL POSSIBILITY OF GALE WARNING BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY SATURDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...REL SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...ADAMS MARINE...ABE