000 FXUS61 KCLE 051856 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/... THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MAY DIVE SE AND MAKE A RUN FOR OUR AREA EARLY TONIGHT. THINK THE LAKE SHADOWING WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE NW PROTECTED SO JUST CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. ALSO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DROPPING INTO THE FAR NE TONIGHT SO MAY NEED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SOME OF THE DEBRIS FROM THE CONVECTION DRIFTS SE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AROUND LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THURSDAY NIGHT/... A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. LACK OF THE ABOVE SHOULD LEAD TO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR MAYBE AROUND NW PA WHERE SITUATION A BIT MORE FAVORABLE. WILL KEEP A SMALL TO SLIGHT CHANCE GOING FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT. UPPER LOWS DROPS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE AND MAY KEEP THE AIRMASS UNSTABLE ENOUGH IN THE EAST FOR A POSSIBLE SHOWER AS WRAP MOISTURE IS PULLED S INTO THAT AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN NW PA THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN GO DRY BY WED AS EFFECTS OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE DIMINISHING BY THEN. BY TUE NIGHT OR WED...MODELS START TO SHOW CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DIVING SE ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY INTO OUR AREA. SO FAR NOBODY HAS BEEN BUYING OFF ON THIS BUT AFTER TODAY'S 12Z RUN THINK THINGS MAY START TO CHANGE. ON THE OTHER HAND...AS FAR AS CLE AND NE OH GOES...THE GFS HAS BEEN WRONG EVERY TIME THIS WARM SEASON ON TRYING TO PUSH ONE OF THESE COMPLEXES WITH SIGNIFICANT RAIN OVER THIS AREA. SO WITH THIS RESENT POOR RECORD ONE IS LEFT TO WONDER WHETHER TO GET FOOLED YET AGAIN. WILL BANK THAT ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THIS STAYS OVER THE SW HALF OF THE CWA AND GO WITH CHANCE THERE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUE AND WED...ESPECIALLY NE HALF OF AREA. SOME MODERATION TAKING PLACE THU BUT STILL LIKELY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE NE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS STILL TRYING TO KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND WARM. A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH. AN MCS MAY ALSO BE INVOLVED...SO DEFINITELY SOME TIMING ISSUES. SOME SURFACE RIDGING ON SUNDAY BUT A TROF ALOFT. AT THIS TIME WILL JUST MENTION 20 POPS...THIS GOES ALONG WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL AND HPC. FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURES...THEY SEEM REASONABLE. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPED QUICKLY. THROUGH 21Z SOME OF THE CUMULUS LOOKS A LITTLE BUBBLY...A SPRINKLE COULD COME OUT OF IT AT THE MOST. CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE A LAKE SHADOW WILL DEVELOP AND THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED...ELSEWHERE MAINLY BROKEN CUMULUS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY CONCERN IS WATCHING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE HINTING AS SOME QPF LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME KEEPING IT DRY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE AIRMASS HAS WARMED UP AND DRIED OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ANYWHERE COULD GET SOME MVFR BR AROUND DAYBREAK FOR THE TAF SITES THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE MFD...CAK AND YNG. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY. MORE CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY...AT THIS TIME THE AIRMASS SEEMS DRIER AND WILL GO DRY. OUTLOOK...THREAT OF EARLY MORNING BR. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAKER. && .MARINE... MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK EITHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA OR WEAK TROFS. AT THIS TIME THE WINDS SHOULD STAY LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL CAUSE SOME STRONGER WINDS BUT STILL IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MORE PREVALENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ADAMS NEAR TERM...ADAMS SHORT TERM...ADAMS LONG TERM...KIELTYKA AVIATION...KIELTYKA MARINE...KIELTYKA