000 FXUS61 KCLE 081742 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1242 PM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY SOME OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING UP A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH THE FAIRLY DRY LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STILL APPEARS A FEW LOCATIONS WILL MAKE A RUN AT RECORD LEVELS. RECORDS FOR TODAY: TOL 73 IN 1945 FDY 74 IN 1945 CLE 72 IN 1945 MFD 70 IN 1945 CAK 71 IN 1916 YNG 78 IN 1938 ERI 71 IN 1945 && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. CANNOT SEE WHY IT WON'T BE AS WARM TOMORROW AS IT WILL BE TODAY. THE ONLY THING THAT COULD HOLD THINGS BACK WOULD BE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. STILL...GIVEN A WARM START TOMORROW MORNING THINK MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD AGAIN TOP OUT AROUND 70. NEW 00Z MODELS A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS CONCERNING COLD FRONT FOR TUESDAY. MODELS TRYING TO BRING THE REMNANTS OF IDA UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN SOME. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST FOR NOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN NE OH AND NW PA. HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM IS A TAD FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING THE HIGH IN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE OVERHEAD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN ON MONDAY BUT THE NUMBERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY...MOVES TO NEAR THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THEN THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF AND GFSENS HOLD THE FRONT OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL FOLLOW THE SLOWER SOLUTION...HOLDING OFF THE PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT BUT INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ESPECIALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL PERSIST. LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING EAST OF CLEVELAND FOR THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GRADIENT IS SO LIGHT I WILL JUST INDICATE "VARIABLE" WINDS AT KERI. AM GUESSING THE LAKE BREEZE WILL NOT MAKE IT TO KCLE. DEWPOINTS ARE UP FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BUT THE SOUTH GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT KEEPING ANY FOG TO A MINIMUM. MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE OF A SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZE. OUTLOOK...MVFR WITH SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. && .MARINE... WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE LAKE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE BUT SHOULD FAVOR A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THE WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY BUT A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COULD KEEP THE LAKE FAIRLY CHOPPY UNTIL THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KUBINA NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...KUBINA LONG TERM...RANDEL AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...RANDEL