000 FXUS65 KCYS 060919 AFDCYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 320 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MON NIGHT...WEAK UPPER FTR MOVG ENE ACRS NERN WY...WITH LINGERING SW PART OF UPPER TROF SLOWLY SHIFTG E ACRS S CNTRL WY ATTM. LOOKS LIKE MAIN MSTR BAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E DURG THE DAY...BUT STILL BE OVER THE SE HALF OF THE AREA DURG PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. INITIAL WEAK SFC SURGE FROM NRN PNHNDL STORMS FIZZLED AFTER MIDN...BUT SECONDARY SURGE FROM STORMS IN SD IS PUSHING SW ACROSS NRN THIRD OF AREA. COULD STILL BE SOME PATCHES OF LOWER CLDS DVLPG ALONG LAR RANGE FOOTHILLS BEHIND SURGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MRNG. SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGS COOLER TODAY IN WAKE OF SFC SURGE...ALONG WITH SOME CLDYNESS. STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO ERUPT ALONG LAR RANGE THIS AFTN IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND THEN SHIFT ENE INTO THE PNHNDL LATE THIS AFTN/EVENG. WINDS ALOFT NOT VERY STRONG AND SO DON'T REALLY EXPECT MUCH IN WAY OF SEVERE THREAT...ALTHO A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY KICK OUT SOME SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. BETTER CHC OF STGR STORMS MAY CLIP FAR NRN PART OF AREA IN E CNTRL WY THIS EVENG...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHCS WILL BE FARTHER N WHERE BULK SHEAR IS HIGHER. RATHER DECENT UPPER TROF AT 250 MB MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THEN SHEARS OUT ON MON JUST S OF AREA. LOOKS LIKE BETTER CHCS OF TSTMS ON MON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FAR SE PART OF THE REGION WHERE LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MSTR REMAINS NEAR HIGH LEVEL FTR. TEMPS ON MON ABOUT SAME AS TODAY FOR THE MOST PART. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY JULY 13TH... TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE IN UPSLOPE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL REGIME. FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOW LEVELS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT MID LEVELS. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SIMILAR SETUP TO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LESS THUS EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WITH STORMS OCCURRING FURTHER EAST THAN THOSE ON TUESDAY. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO WEST AND STRENGTHENS WHICH WILL IN TURN INDUCE DECENT SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING...EFFECTIVELY DRYING OUT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND MAKING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LESS LIKELY. IN FACT...SIGNIFICANT DRYING AT LOW AND MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORMS QUITE UNLIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE THE RIGHT TREND AND SUSPECT THESE WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS THIS DAY APPROACHES. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RATHER IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOR MID JULY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SENDING A HEALTHY COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THUS COOLER. SINCE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCANT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER DESPITE COLD FRONTAL FORCING. SATURDAY/SUNDAY...LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY WITH SOUTH WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...THUS SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAINLY BETWEEN DGW/CYS EARLY TODAY... THEN SCT TSTMS THIS AFTN AT MOST LOCATIONS E OF THE MTNS. CIGS/VSBYS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER THAN STORMS OF PAST FEW DAYS...STILL GENERALLY VFR THO WITH CIGS OF 4-6K FT. THERE WILL BE BETTER CHCS OF A MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIG AREA DVLPG LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG OVER THE NRN/ERN PARTS...AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LAR AND RWL. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM....RUBIN