000
FXUS65 KCYS 100500 AAA
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1000 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...TONIGHT...
FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT AND UPDATES AGAIN ARE JUST MINOR
BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT AND WIND TRENDS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THAT WINDS ACROSS THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL VEER TO
THE WEST MORE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MEAN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FLOW WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
ALLOWING NUMEROUS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STRUGGLES ON THE
TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THIS PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW.

INITIALLY...09/12Z MODEL SUITES HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE FOUR CORNERS LOW COMPARED TO THOSE OF 24 HOURS AGO. THIS LOW
WILL NOW PASS THROUGH NRN OLD MEXICO. ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES
EXIST...FIRST EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY...WHILE THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS WILL SEE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE CONSISTENT IN PAINTING A BIT OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ANOTHER MOUNTAIN
EVENT...BUT DID SPREAD SOME OUT SNOW CHANCES OUT ONTO THE PLAINS
AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD APPROVE SOME FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...AS HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MID 30S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE KRWL
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...CARPENTER 
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN 
LONG TERM...HAHN