000 FXUS63 KDDC 291845 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 145 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LVL TROF WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO SW KS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON 18Z VERIFICATION LOOKS LIKE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WERE DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVED IT ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR CWA THROUGH 00Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK AND COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE DAY ON TRACK AND DURATION AS NEEDED. BY EVENING THE BETTER FORCING AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER SO INITIAL PLAN FOR TONIGHT IS TO RETAIN MENTION OF SMALL POPS NEAR THE OK BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z. THE STATIONARY FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED IN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BOTH MODELS PROG THIS BOUNDARY IN OUR ERN CWA. DWPTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH 00Z CAPES IN THIS AREA AROUND 1000J/KG. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A 5H VORT LOBE MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF OK INTO KS LATE IN THE DAY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL POPS IN OUR SE CWA. MAY EVEN SPREAD THIS AREA A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD LATE SAT AND EARLY SAT NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA AS PRESSURE CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER ON SUNDAY. HAVE RETAINED WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH BUT AFTERNOON WINDS MAY BE CLOSER TO 30 THAN 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND STILL LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON MODELS SOUNDINGS. MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE HIGHS AS IS. DID BUMP UP LOWS SOME BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST AND THEN WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS UP. DAYS 3-7... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING IT'S SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK MONDAY UNTIL IT BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL DRAG INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES WHAT EFFECT GUSTAV WILL HAVE ON OUR CWA IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE AS THEY ARE. THE LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL RUNS DIVERGE FROM THE ECMWF(HIRES) AND KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WHEREAS, THE ECMWF(HIRES) BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM UP A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER TO THE WEST RIGHT ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER. REGARDLESS, TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE GUSTAV WILL TRACK BUT ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN A BIT HIGHER IN THE EAST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION OF POPS AT THIS POINT WITH A BUMP UP TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/ WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING LOW ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WILL INFLUENCE FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF JUST A BIT WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IN WAKE OF A FROPA AND POSSIBLE INCREASED CLOUDINESS FROM REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVING UP FROM THE GULF. PLAN TO MAKE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL INTO EASTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KHYS AND KGCK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 87 69 90 / 0 10 10 20 GCK 66 87 67 89 / 0 0 0 20 EHA 65 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 20 LBL 67 87 67 86 / 20 0 0 20 HYS 64 88 71 91 / 0 10 10 20 P28 67 88 70 89 / 10 20 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN18/32/32