000 FXUS63 KDDC 191129 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 629 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 A MINOR SHORT WAVE WAS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING, AND WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ENDING PRIOR TO 18Z, EXCEPT FOR THE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183. THE RAIN WILL CLEAR EVEN THE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 BY 00Z THIS EVENING IN THE FAR WEST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, AS THE STORMS HAVE BEEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD, THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN WEAKENING. SO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL MISS MOST OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, EXCEPT FOR FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTH OF I-70, WHERE OVER 2 INCHES FELL IN SPOTS EARLIER TONIGHT. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT, AND BE FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, TODAY SHOULD BE SLOW TO WARM UP AND THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO PRATT, AND RANGE TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF KANSAS. ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL DROP OFF TO 10 TO 15 MPH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO HOLD BOTH DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES UP A TAD, WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING ONLY TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH UPPER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 .THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS PERIOD AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED MOISTURE TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ERGO, ONLY A FEW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER UNLESS THEY COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. IF THIS OCCURS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A PERSISTENT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONS IT SELF ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALSO TO MENTION, FIRE DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS RH'S ARE FORECASTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NEEDED. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... THE LARGE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY THEN BECOME ABSORBED IN THE POLAR JET MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102 DEGREES. LOWS ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING GIVING AWAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 67 99 73 / 40 20 10 10 GCK 90 66 100 72 / 40 10 10 10 EHA 93 66 101 71 / 20 10 10 10 LBL 92 67 101 73 / 30 10 10 10 HYS 86 67 96 73 / 40 20 10 10 P28 87 68 97 74 / 30 30 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BURKE LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42 AVIATION...SUGDEN