000 FXUS63 KDLH 080536 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1136 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009 .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. AN INC IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY SUN...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PD...WHERE A PROB30 IS WARRANTED AT KINL AND KHIB. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SUN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PD. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. AN INC IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. $$ UPDATE...WE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT BY QUITE A BIT...ALONG WITH DEC CLOUD COVER. WITH TD'S CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND HIGH PRES BUILDING OVERHEAD...WE EXPECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/ DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS OF 3 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CWA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE HEADED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DAKOTAS...BUT MAINLY SCATTERED AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN MUCH OF NW WI. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...AND MOVE TO SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY EVENING. A LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS TONIGHT... WITH OVERRUNNING DEVELOPING NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT THAT WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM SE MN TO NORTHERN WI BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING BETTER POPS/QPF IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING FGEN SHOULD BRING SOME WDLY SCT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS AT THIS POINT DUE TO FAIRLY LOW MOISTURE AND THE SYSTEM BEING EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF FROM THE GULF. IT WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH THE MOISTURE IT BRINGS WITH IT...AND BATTLE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. STILL THINK QPF WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MAINLY 0.10 INCH OR LESS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH/H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN ALONG WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS FOR A WHILE. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S NORTH AND 50S SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO THE 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CWA WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE EXPECTED WITH GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC PATTERN. LOW LVL THETAE AXIS SUGGESTS BDRY WILL STALL/DISSIPATE ACROSS SE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS MAINTAINS EXISTING DRY FCST WHEREAS EC/GEM SUPPORT SOME PRECIP. WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE UPDATES MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS/QPF. UNSETTLED PATTERN THEN DEVELOPS AS SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM ROCKIES GENERATES A WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE IN LOW/MID LVLS. 85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS SWINGS INTO CWA ON HEELS OF LLJ THURSDAY SO POPS INCREASED AT THAT TIME. SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA THUR NIGHT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. GFS/EC TOTALLY DIVERGE WITH SFC/MID LVL PATTERN FRI/SAT AS EC BUILDS SFC HIGH INTO MOST OF CWA...PUSHING MOST FORCING SOUTH OF REGION. GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER LOPRESS AND SWINGS SIGNIFICANT PRECIP INTO CWA. WILL LEAN WITH EC/HPC GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT AS MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS DONT SUPPORT OPS GFS. && AVIATION...VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE...DRY AIR...AND MDT/STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY WINDS DURING DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY 0Z.. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 32 53 32 51 / 0 20 20 10 INL 27 52 31 47 / 0 20 20 0 BRD 30 54 33 54 / 0 20 20 0 HYR 26 57 34 54 / 0 30 20 10 ASX 30 55 35 54 / 0 30 20 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ LONKA/BERDES/BERDES