000 FXUS63 KDLH 051542 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1042 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .UPDATE...AFTERNOON ZONES/GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO CLOUD COVER...AND TEMPS...BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009/ DISCUSSION... A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT. SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE BACK OF THE GREAT BASIN RIDGE HAVE BEEN AND CONTINUE TO CHOKE ON SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 0C TO 10C RANGE OVER OUR AREA. RAINFALL WILL NOT APPEAR UNTIL THE SHORT WAVES GET INTO MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. ATTM HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH SASKATCHEWAN WILL BUILD TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND RIDGE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ALL OF MINNESOTA TODAY AND MONDAY. DUAL STORM TRACKS...ONE ALONG A PERSISTENT FRONT IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ANOTHER OVER THE MANITOBA LAKES WILL KEEP MOISTURE AWAY FROM US THROUGH MONDAY. EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TOWARD MID WEEK AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH EJECTS AND BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS STILL IN MAJOR DISAGREEMENT WITH LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES...AS 00Z ECMWF TRACKS LOW CENTER NORTHEAST THROUGH MANITOBA...AND 00Z GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING STRONG...WITH SOUTHEAST TRACKING OF LOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. CONSENSUS IS TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WITH POPS...AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT GRIDS DRY UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. AVIATION...SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW SKIRTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. && POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 76 46 75 52 / 10 10 10 10 INL 76 42 79 48 / 10 10 10 10 BRD 81 51 80 58 / 10 10 10 10 HYR 79 44 81 50 / 10 10 10 10 ASX 75 46 73 51 / 10 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. $$ DAP/STEWART