000
FXUS63 KDLH 292010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008


...WARM AND BREEZY PATTERN FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...



.DISCUSSION...LAST MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE PUSHING QUICKLY ACROSS CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO NORTH OF
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT APPEARS THAT BDRY LYR IS JUST TOO DRY TO
SUSTAIN DECENT CLOUD GROWTH IN MOST LOCATIONS. AREA OF MID LVL
CLOUD...ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL DEWPOINT AXIS AT 70H...WILL SWING
QUICKLY ACROSS ENTIRE ERN HALF OF CWA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ONLY
AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. CLEARING TONIGHT AND DECOUPLING
SHOULD ALLOW VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. DROPPED MINS BELOW
GUIDANCE OVER INTERIOR WISC ZONES AS CENTER OF SFC HIGH ENDS UP
JUST EAST OF THIS LOCATION BY 12Z. HAVE LEFT PATCHY FOG IN FOR
NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. GFS/BUFKIT UPS FOG PROFILES SHOW
FOG DEVELOPING AROUND 8Z.

TOMORROW...PLEASANT DAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED. EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE WHERE A LIGHT SE FLOW
IS FCST BY NAM12...SHIFTING TO NE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

EXTENDED...SUN THRU WED...ANOMALOUS MID LVL RIDGE WILL POSITION
ITSELF NEAR ERN GT LAKES. WARMING TREND WILL INCREASE SUN/MON AS
MID LVL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND 85H TEMPS INCREASE TO 18/20C
SUN/MON/TUE. TEMPS WILL REACH MID 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS CWA.
PATTERN CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY TUESDAY AS MDL DIFFERENCES ARISE
IN BREAKDOWN OF GT LAKES RIDGE DUE TO ONCOMING MID LVL TROF.
BUILDUP OF THERMODYNAMICS TUESDAY MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP/CONVECTION. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AXIS DEVELOP JUST WEST OF CWA EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PWS INCREASE TO 3 S.D.
ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF ONCOMING DIVERGENCE/LIFT. STRENGTHENING RRQ
OF UPPER JET PROVIDES A PERIOD OF ASCENT AS UPPER TROUGH
TRANSLATES EAST OVER GT LAKES. REMAINS OF GUSTAV WILL TRY TO
INTERACT WITH NRN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES BUT NO ABILITY TO PINPOINT
POTENTIAL ARE OF INCREASED QPF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT ALTOSTRATUS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SKC BY THIS 
EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION. W 
AND NW WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. RADIATION FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATE 
TONIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND 
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL...MAINLY AT KHYR AND KHIB. A VERY DRY AIRMASS 
IS EXPECTED ON SAT WITH WARMING ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CU 
DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO A MAINLY SUNNY DAY WITH SOUTHERLY TO 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.


&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  77  58  84 /  10   0   0   0 
INL  41  80  60  88 /   0   0   0   0 
BRD  45  84  63  89 /   0   0   0   0 
HYR  42  83  57  88 /  10   0   0   0 
ASX  45  80  56  84 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

$$

CANNON/EOM