000
FXUS63 KDMX 292046
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION THEN WILL BECOME BLOCKED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS 
AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC...BECOMING AN OMEGA BLOCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO 
WILL HAVE A DOMINO EFFECT AND WILL LEAD TO A PLETHORA OF 
POSSIBILITIES BY MID NEXT WEEK. EXPECT A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH DRY 
AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. GRADUAL MODIFICATION THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER ON TAP AND HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 
50S AND 60S. 

BLOCKING PATTERN WILL HOLD A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST THROUGH 
TUESDAY. SOME WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS MAY SPILL OVER INTO WESTERN 
IOWA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE ALSO WILL HAVE A 
BIG IMPACT ON CURRENT TROPICAL STORMS GUSTAV AND HANNAH AND WILL 
FORCE EACH THROUGH THE GULF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM AND 
BRING THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND COMBINING 
WITH SLOWLY EASTWARD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS IS NOT 
A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR ERN 
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...HOWEVER WITH A LARGE BLOCKING HIGH TO THE 
EAST...IT IS A POSSIBILITY. IN THE RARE INSTANCES THE ABOVE SCENARIO 
HAS OCCURRED...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS ENSUED. WITH LITTLE WEATHER ON 
TAP UNTIL THEN...THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS FOR THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS STATE BEFORE PUSHING EAST SATURDAY. 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

LONG TERM...DONAVON
SHORT TERM...KINNEY
AVIATION...KINNEY