000
FXUS63 KEAX 081743
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/408 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009/
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERED NRN MO SAT HAS DISSIPATED IN 
RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A STG ZONAL JET DRIVING INTO THE 
CNTRL ROCKIES. GUSTY S/SSW WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH IN 
WRN KS WILL AID IN DRIVING TEMPS TO MUCH ABV NORMAL ONCE AGAIN 
TODAY. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MEMBERS 
OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. 

THE FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL 
SHIFT NE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIVE A WEAK 
COLD FRONT INTO NWRN MO BY MON MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A 
SLIGHT CHC OF RW ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS UPPER FORCING IS WEAK WITH 
ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE QUALITY AND DEPTH OF GULF MOISTURE. 
THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY 
WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES TO RACE THROUGH MO...IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING SE THROUGH MO. 
FRONTOGENETICAL AND QG FORCING ARE RATHER WEAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALSO RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER...GIVEN A GRADUAL 
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY...HIGH CHC 
POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY 
DUE TO SFC-H8 MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS 
WEAK...THEREFORE CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE RAIN WILL END FM THE NW MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LAST IN THE SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EXITS THE NRN PLAINS AND THE SFC AND H8 BOUNDARY SHIFTS 
SE.

DB


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAF...MVFR CEILINGS FORMED JUST WEST OF THE TERMINALS 
SHORTLY AFTER SR TODAY INDICATING THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
DEEPENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MUCH A GOOD DEAL OF MVFR 
CEILINGS OVER OK SPREADING NORTHWARD. PRETTY MUCH A GIVEN THAT MVFR 
CEILINGS WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. QUESTION IS 
ONE OF TIMING. WILL LOWER TO MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS 
WITH THE IDEA THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO SPEED THEIR ARRIVAL BY A 
FEW HOURS. 

OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ABATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND 
REMAIN OUT OF THE S OR SSW UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY 
MORNING. SINCE THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY THE TRANSITION 
FROM SSW TO NORTHEAST MAY ENTAIL SEVERAL HOURS OF VARIABLE OR CALM 
WINDS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALSO GENERATE WIDELY 
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS STARTING A FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AND 
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SO 
FELT VICINITY WORDING WOULD DESCRIBE IT BEST.

MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND 
FAVORING NORTHERN MO/KSTJ VS KMCI/KMKC.

MJ



&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$