000
FXUS63 KEAX 291953
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO
MISSOURI WAS USHERING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE CWA THIS
AFTN. LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY MASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RAD COOLING TNGT.

THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING ERN US RIDGE WILL INSURE DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH LABOR DAY. AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...RETURN
FLOW AND INCREASING H8 TEMPS WILL PERMIT A GRADUAL WARMUP SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. 

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (MON-FRI)...

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH HURRICANE GUSTAV AND THE WIDE VARIETY 
OF SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY DECREASES BEYOND TUESDAY. HOWEVER 
BEFORE THAT PERIOD...CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY 
AND RATHER WARM AS INFLUENCE FROM DEEPENING UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CONUS BEGINS.  RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BE COMMON 
WITH AS 850 TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 20C.  HAVE BUMPED UP READINGS A 
BIT BOTH DAYS...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND NOT A COMPLETELY 
FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING ANY 
HIGHER.

BEYOND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE THEIR STRUGGLES IN FIGURING OUT WHAT 
IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GUSTAV ONCE IT HITS THE MAINLAND. THE ECMWF 
CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTAV FURTHER WEST TOWARDS KANSAS TODAY...DUE IN 
PART TO RETROGRADING UPR RIDGE IN THE EAST COAST AND UPR TROUGH TO 
THE WEST LIFTING FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE GFS...WHILE STILL LIKELY 
OFF TARGET...STALLS GUSTAV OVER ARKANSAS AND THEN SWEEPS THE REMNANTS 
ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH 
LITTLE AFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO ALLOW A 
SFC COLD FRONT TO SURGE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF WESTERN 
CONUS TROUGH.  WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY PREVALENT...WILL TRY TO 
FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND TODAY...KEEPING CHC POPS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.  IF GUSTAV DOESN'T SURGE AS FAR 
WEST AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS...THEN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA MAY BE DRIER TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST 
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. REGARDLESS...THESE 
SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY CHANGE ON EVERY MODEL RUN UNTIL GUSTAV 
ACTUALLY REACHES LAND ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON CLOUD COVER AND 
PRECIPITATION.  WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY...CLIMATOLOGICAL 
NORMALS MAY BE THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW.

DUX  

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A DRY AND STABLE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ONLY PSBL EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KSTJ LATE TNGT AS RIVER
FOG MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND WILL NOT
INSERT FOG AT THIS TIME. 

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$