000
FXUS63 KEAX 052053
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOR THE TAIL END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE WORK 
WEEK IS FAIRLY BENIGN. 

SATURDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS LEFT A PLEASANT POOL OF COOL AIR 
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR TODAY...AND WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM 
YESTERDAYS RAINS...AN EXTENSIVE CU-FIELD HAS POPPED UP ACROSS THE 
REGION TODAY. LATER TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND 
THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES 
AND CALM WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT GIVING THE REGION A DECENT 
CHANCE AT SOME PATCHY MONDAY MORNING FOG. 

LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS 
TAKEN UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING 
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST EASE 
EAST...FORCING THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN THE FLOW FARTHER NORTH...BUT 
STILL ALLOWING A MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL ALOFT. AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE ON A STEADY SLOW CLIMB 
FROM ONE DAY TO THE NEXT THROUGH THE UP COMING WEEK...WITH NEAR 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVING POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. 

OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK IS 
FOR DRY CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS THAT WILL NEED 
WATCHING. FIRST CAVEAT IS THAT MONDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE...MOVING INTO 
THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WILL SWEEP ACROSS MISSOURI. WITH OUR AREA SUCK 
UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALREADY BE A TOUCH ON 
THE COOL SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING WITH 
THE SHORTWAVE COULD SPARK SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS IN THE HEAT OF 
THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVING 
WITH THE WAVE THOUGH...AND THE CURRENT ROUND OF MODEL OUTPUTS POINTS 
AT ANY PRECIPITATION SIGNAL BEING A LITTLE TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO 
HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. 
SECOND CAVEAT IS FOCUSED ON THE NIGHT TIME HOURS OF MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND A NOCTURNAL LOW 
LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME FORM OF MCS ACTIVITY. FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT...CURRENT SET OF MODEL RUNS POINT AT THE FOCUS FOR THIS 
ACTIVITY TO BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE 
THE ACTIVITY SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH...THOUGH WITH THE WARM 
FRONT ADVERTISED TO BE ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA TUESDAY THOUGHTS ARE 
THAT THE MODELS THAT BRING THE ACTIVITY SOUTH INTO MISSOURI MIGHT BE 
A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH...THOUGH THIS WILL WARRANT CLOSE SCRUTINY OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

CUTTER

RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...BRINGING STEADILY 
WARMING TEMPS TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. APPEARS AT LEAST 
A MODEST CAP WILL ALSO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY DRY. MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY REMAIN TRICKY AT 
THIS POINT. VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND REGION JUST AHEAD OF AN 
APPROACHING FRONT...COULD PUSH TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY 
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEK...DRAGGING A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS 
THE REGION. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH/POSITION 
OF THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF 
THE RIDGE/CAPE AT THAT TIME. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR 
FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY...BUMP POPS UP INTO THE CHANCE 
CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DUE TO CONSISTENCY OF THE 
MODELS...THEN LOWER BACK DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRATUS DECK SETTLED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS 
MORNING...BUT WITH ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER 
HEATING...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU HAS POPPED UP IN THE WAKE OF THE 
STRATUS. HAVE LEFT A BROKEN DECK IN FOR 4KFT CIGS BASED ON THE 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOME ASOS OBS THAT INDICATE THAT THE 
CU-FIELD IS FAIRLY DENSE. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS 
DIURNAL HEATING FADES.

FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TERMINALS 
KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR AND THE WINDS LIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE 
STILL ABUNDANT MOISTURE...THE CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS 
SHOULD ALLOW SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
MONDAY. KEPT THE MOST RESTRICTIVE VISIBILITIES FOCUSED ON KSTJ DUE 
TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE MISSOURI.   

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$