000
FXUS65 KGJT 051021
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
321 AM MST THU NOV 5 2009

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ALTHOUGH WITH
EMBEDDED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK EJECTING VORT
CENTER. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD ONCE AGAIN.

FRIDAY A WEAKENING TROF OVER SRN CA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE
FLOW OVER OUR CWA WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RESULTING CLOUDINESS...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. STEEPER LAPSE
RATES WILL ALLOW BETTER MIXING RESULTING IN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT IN MODEL RUNS THOUGH APPEARS THEY ARE
SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER.  SATURDAY WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  TIMING HAS SLOWED AS JET
STREAM WEAKENS SOMEWHAT SO DROPPED POPS FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT FOR
NERN UT WHICH LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CHC FOR PRECIP.  BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY
SUN MORNING...CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR MOST OF CO/UT EVEN THOUGH BOTH
MODELS PUSH PRECIP BACK UNTIL LATER SUNDAY.  NEVERTHELESS...CONTINUED
LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS PRECLUDES ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST.

THICKNESSES AND STREAMLINES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY THOUGH STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT CORROBORATE THIS LINE OF
THOUGHT AS TEMPS DO NOT FLUCTUATE FROM DAY TO DAY.  REGARDLESS...CHCS
REMAIN FOR PRECIP ACROSS CWA THRU MONDAY MORNING.  DISTURBANCE WILL
BE OUT OF AREA MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT WILL
PERSIST THRU WEDNESDAY UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM STARTS AFFECTING AREA.

THROUGHOUT LONGTERM...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT 24 HOURS AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM.....MC
LONG TERM......TGR
AVIATION.......TGR