000 FXUS63 KGLD 081727 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009 .DISCUSSION... 244 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009 MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REMAINS THE SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAXES FOR TODAY AND MONDAY A SECONDARY PROBLEM. SATELLITE SHOWING FAST WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE NOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. DECENT/MODERATE STRENGTH SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO UTAH. AS OF 07Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS SHOW FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND HAS MADE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL ON CURRENT JET THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT MODELS DID FINE ON THE INITIAL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWED THROUGH 06Z THAT THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE NAM WAS THE WORST OFFENDER AND IS WAY TOO DEEP AND SLOW. THE RUC WAS DOING VERY WELL FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF. AT LOW LEVELS...THE NAM/ECMWF ARE HANDLING CURRENT SURFACE WIND/PRESSURE FIELD VERY WELL...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE FRONTS LOCATION. THE LATEST RUC MATCHES THESE TWO WELL THROUGH 18Z. MODELS WERE HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE THERMAL FIELD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE WARMER AIR. THE GFS DID BETTER HERE AND OVERALL WAS THE BETTER MODEL WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FURTHER NORTH...THE NAM WAS CLOSE TO THE GFS. GOING BY WHAT REALITY IS SHOWING...WILL MAINLY GO WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC/SREF/ECMWF WITH A LITTLE NAM THROWN IN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TODAY/TONIGHT...INTERESTING/PROBLEMATIC TEMPERATURE FORECAST. AS FRONT MOVES NORTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 50S AS WINDS INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH. MODELS KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION GOING WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SETTING IN EVEN WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WIND SHIFT DOES NOT CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THE AREA AND EXPECT THAT TO INCREASE/THICKEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS MID/UPPER LIFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...PLAN ON GOING TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL YESTERDAY. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON JET POSITION THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN PORTION OF THE JET STILL WELL TO THE NORTH. JET MAX COMING DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO STILL WELL TO THE WEST. AIR MASS IS STILL ON THE DRY SIDE THROUGH MID LEVELS. THE WIND SHIFT COMES IN SOON ENOUGH THAT THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PUSHED EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE STRONGEST...PUSHES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY AND ALSO CLEANS OUT THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS STILL THERE. LITTLE IF ANY LIFT IS LEFT FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. QPF IS EVEN MORE SCANT THAN YESTERDAY. SO THE CURRENT DRY FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE MORE DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE JET IS DURING THE DAY WITH THE SAME TRENDS FROM THE MODELS AS YESTERDAY. TO START THE DAY...THE ECMWF IS FLATTER/FURTHER EAST WITH JET COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THE NAM/UKMET/GFS ARE SHARPER AND FURTHER WEST WITH THE JET/TROUGH. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE NAM/UKMET ABOUT THE SAME. THE GFS COMES INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF BY THE END OF THE DAY. EVEN GOING BY THE MOST FAVORABLE MODELS...JET LIFT LIFT REMAINS WEAK AND MOSTLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. ALSO AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE. WHEN A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE BETTER LIFT BUT NOT THAT STRONG...THERE IS EVEN LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THERE IS EVEN LESS QPF THAN YESTERDAY. SREF/GFS/CANADIAN HAVE NO QPF WITH THE NAM HAVING BARELY A HUNDREDTH. THE ECMWF LOOKS OVERDONE. WILL EITHER LIMIT MEASURABLE TO THE FAR NORTH OR JUST HAVE SPRINKLES. WILL HAVE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LOT OF CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON...AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOL AND CLOSER TO THE COOLER GUIDANCE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE THE WINDS INCREASE FIRST WITH THE EASTERN HALF AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN THIRD BEING LIGHT FOR THE WHOLE NIGHT. SO LOWERED MINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL GIVE THE AREA PLENTY OF SUN...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATE IN DAY...AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS WHICH SHOULD BE MOSTLY RECYCLED COOL AIR. EASTERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW GUIDANCE. ALSO PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES... MAINLY IN THE WEST...AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY. SO WILL INCREASE THE WINDS OUT IN THE WEST. NO CHANGES PLANNED BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THANKS TO ALL FOR COLLABORATION BULLER && .AVIATION... 1027 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009 FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. CURRENT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRANSITION TO A MID LEVEL CEILING BY ABOUT 00Z. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE AFTER 12Z...BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES. CURRENT WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 20G30KT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTH BY 21Z...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN BELOW 10KT FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTER 00Z. BLM && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$