000
FXUS63 KGLD 052000
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO ROCKIES AS AN IMPULSE MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN AREAS IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO...DISSIPATING TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST
AS COLBY AND LEOTI KANSAS. 

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ONTO
THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE MOUNTAINS BY 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE
REMNANTS OF SUNDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE SOME
INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FEATURE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/2 OF THE AREA...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF IT. WITH VERY STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING LEVEL JET FROM THE
WEST SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT ALSO
RATHER HIGH BASED. 700 TEMPS PUSHING +16C OVER FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WHICH IS GETTING PRETTY STRONG TO CAP THE ACTION BUT
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS KIND OF
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AM EXPECTING THE
ACTIVITY TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WHILE ALSO
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 95-100 RANGE. WILL
NEED TO WATCH EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA FOR LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS AS NAM/GFS 700-500 RH SHOW SOMETHING MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREA WITH SILENT
POPS. 

THURSDAY...UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE (PER GFS) FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN INTO THE NORTHWEST
1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH FORECAST 700 TEMPS
OF AROUND +17C FEEL ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST AND
FOR NOW WILL KEEP LOW SILENT POPS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY TIL
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN ITS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR A
FRONT TO BACK IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING SOME COOLER AIR TO
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY 95-100...COOLING A BIT INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1130 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT SCT CU FIELD AOA 030 SHOULD LAST 
THROUGH THE DAY. LATE THIS AFTERNOON SOME TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE 
IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME INTRODUCED VCTS FOR GLD BUT MCK IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE TSRA NEAR GLD SHOULD CEASE BY 04Z 
TONIGHT.

05

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

$$