000 FXUS62 KGSP 081314 AFDGSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 814 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IDA IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTH GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATING TO REMOVE FROST ADV. NO CHANGES TO FCST FOR NOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY. THICKNESS WILL INCREASE AND LGT SLY WINDS WITH FULL SUN WILL BRING TEMPS UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONT TO BUILD THIS EVE BEFORE AXIS STARTS TO TRACK E. THIS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVG. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...THE FATE OF THE SHORT TERM WEATHER OBVIOUSLY HINGES UPON THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IDA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND NHC GUIDANCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW THE STORM WILL INTERACT WITH VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN ADVECTING A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING HEIGHT GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND INTENSIFYING SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASING WITH THE IDA CIRCULATION. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...DUE TO MUCH WEAKER MID- LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS WAS REMINISCENT OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE. MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS LEANED ON THIS 12Z ECMWF/GEFS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION... WHICH IS DISCONCERTING TO SAY THE LEAST. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AGAIN TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VERY CONSERVATIVE QPF NUMBERS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GLEANED FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END RATHER QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS WIL RESULT IN A POP-LESS FORECAST WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CALM TO LGT AND VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG WILL BECOME LGT S TO SE TOWARD NOON...ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BE A BIT SQUIRRELY THRU THE AFTN BUT LESS THAN 10KT. EXPECT SCT HIGH CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN. OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THRU MON. AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AROUND RIVERS AND LAKES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUE WITH INCRSNG CHC SHWRS AND CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FRONT SHOULD MOVE E WED WITH VFR RETURNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPT NEAR TERM...RB/RWH SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...RB