000 FXUS63 KICT 061106 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 606 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .UPDATE... && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS [RSL/SLN/HUT/ICT/CNU] UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO S-CNTRL/SERN KS LEADING TO DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN JUST NW-N OF THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER. JMC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS ARE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...THEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT: CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER NIGHT IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS HAS DISPLAYED A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE SO WILL START THE FORECAST OFF DRY. AN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY RESULTING IN A WARM AND HUMID DAY. COULD SEE TEMPS AGAIN APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN CENTRAL KANSAS AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS SOUTHERLY BREEZES MIX OUT LOW LAYER MOISTURE. SO WILL NOT GO WITH ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. MONDAY: UPPER RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. AT THIS POINT IN TIME AM KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY...THINKING ANY CONVECTION WILL WORK AROUND THE RIDGE AND STAY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA TILL AFTER 00Z ON TUESDAY (MONDAY EVENING). MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY: 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN LAYING UP THE THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY EVENING THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE A PRETTY GOOD BET...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY THEN MOVE IT SOUTH AND ALONG THE BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND CONSIDERING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TRAINING STORMS WILL BE A REAL POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: MODEL CONSISTENCY STILL ON TRACK WITH WASHING OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY...LEE TROFFING THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ON FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DRY FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...NOT SO SURE ABOUT THE SECOND HALF THOUGH. AVIATION... 06Z TAF ISSUANCE: ONLY CHANGES TO PRIOR (00Z) ISSUANCE WAS TO ADD VCTS TO KRSL & KSLN TERMINALS AS SCT TSRA CONTINUE TO DRIFT S/SE FROM SW-SC NEBRASKA TOWARD THE KS BORDER. MOST RECENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN BACK-BUILDING ACROSS SW NEBRASKA WHERE A FEW CELLS MAY BE INTENSIFYING. COOLING CB TOPS TO -60C ARE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL CONFIRMATION OF THIS TREND SO KRSL & KSLN WILL REQUIRE GREATEST ATTENTION THE REST OF THE NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 97 74 95 72 / 0 10 10 30 HUTCHINSON 98 73 95 70 / 0 10 10 40 NEWTON 97 74 95 71 / 0 10 10 30 ELDORADO 96 74 95 72 / 0 10 10 30 WINFIELD-KWLD 97 74 95 73 / 0 0 10 20 RUSSELL 100 72 93 67 / 10 10 10 40 GREAT BEND 99 72 94 68 / 10 10 10 40 SALINA 99 73 93 69 / 10 10 10 40 MCPHERSON 98 73 94 70 / 10 10 10 40 COFFEYVILLE 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 CHANUTE 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 10 20 IOLA 93 73 93 73 / 0 0 10 20 PARSONS-KPPF 94 73 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$