000 FXUS63 KICT 080925 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 325 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009 .DISCUSSION... A RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS MORNING DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN CONCERT WITH DIURNAL COOLING. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOW STRATOCUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...BUT SHALLOW NATURE OF MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN OFF BY MID-LATE MORNING. INCREASED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PRECLUDE MAXIMUM HEATING TODAY...BUT STILL EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S. STILL ANTICIPATING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA A BIT FASTER TONIGHT...SO INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY MID/UPPER ENERGY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TX...EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED SOUTHEAST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA/NORTHERN CONUS. MAY SEE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (NOT STRONG/SEVERE) WITH THE SHOWERS MONDAY-MONDAY EVENING DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND RESPECTABLE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. OVERALL...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONT. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY-TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AS A PACIFIC AIRMASS SETTLES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORTS WARMING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM MID-LATE WEEK...AS THE MENTIONED MODELS DEVELOP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. CONSEQUENTLY...BREEZY...DRY AND WARMER WEATHER (ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES) SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK...GFS/ECMWF INCREASE WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING...PROGRESSING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY-SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF FEATURES...SO DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FOR LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND. ADK && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THE SHALLOW STRATUS HASN'T FORMED OVER OK OR SRN KS...YET. HOWEVER WITH RICHER 925 MB MOISTURE STREAMING NE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ON STRENGTHENING 40-45KT LOW-LVL JET...AM STILL CONFIDENT STRATUS OF ~1,000FT WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN MORNING OVER THESE AREAS WHERE NO DOUBT BETTER ALIGNED WITH 925 MB MOISTURE AXIS. STRENGTHENING 925 MB JET DICTATES LOW-LVL WIND SHEAR COMMENTARY OVER KHUT...KICT & KCNU TIL 14Z. BEING SHALLOW IN NATURE THE STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID SUN MORNING. EPS && .FIRE WEATHER... USING CURING VALUES OF 85-95%...THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL BE "HIGH" TO "VERY HIGH" LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...DUE TO STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS. PASTURES/GRASSLANDS WITH LOWER CURING VALUES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS FIRE DANGER. AFTER A FEW QUIET FIRE WEATHER DAYS MONDAY-TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...HIGH TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 73 56 61 43 / 0 20 40 30 HUTCHINSON 73 54 59 40 / 0 20 40 30 NEWTON 73 55 60 42 / 0 20 40 30 ELDORADO 74 56 62 44 / 0 20 40 40 WINFIELD-KWLD 74 56 64 46 / 0 20 40 40 RUSSELL 73 45 57 35 / 0 20 30 10 GREAT BEND 73 47 57 36 / 0 20 40 20 SALINA 73 50 58 39 / 0 20 40 20 MCPHERSON 73 53 59 40 / 0 20 40 30 COFFEYVILLE 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40 CHANUTE 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 30 40 IOLA 74 56 66 46 / 0 10 40 40 PARSONS-KPPF 74 56 68 47 / 0 10 30 40 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$