000
FXUS63 KICT 052012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY HIGHS AT THE 
END OF THE WEEK. 

TONIGHT-TUESDAY:
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS HAS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING 
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 
2PM. MODELS ARE INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON 
AND TONIGHT...SO WOULD EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM 
NORTH TO SOUTH. ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WILL BE THE LAST TO 
CLEAR...BUT SHOULD STILL CLEAR BY LATE EVENING. 

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. 
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE HIGH 
PLAINS...SO WE WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY FOR THE MOST PART. 
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT THAT SOME STORMS WOULD 
AFFECT PART OF CENTRAL KANSAS...SO WILL INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORM WORDING FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP 
BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY. 

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY:
UPPER RIDGING SETS IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH 850MB 
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 30C ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA 
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING 850 TEMPERATURES 
AROUND 30 TO 35C...BUT FEEL THESE ARE TOO WARM. WILL KEEP MAX 
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES...WITH THE HIGHEST 
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE 
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE END OF THE WEEK 
DRY FOR NOW...BUT IF THE FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THE 
KS/NE BORDER IS ABLE TO COME ANY FURTHER SOUTH...WE MAY NEED TO ADD 
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CENTRAL KANSAS. 

SCHRECK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CLOUD/CEILING FORECAST. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FORECAST BY MODELS THIS TIME YESTERDAY PANNED OUT. WITH TRANSITION
TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST
AREA...SHOULD SEE CUMULUS DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SOUTHERN HALF MAY HAVE TO WAIT CLOSER TO SUNSET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  89  66  93 /   0  10  10  10 
HUTCHINSON      63  87  65  94 /   0  10  10  10 
NEWTON          63  86  65  93 /   0  10  10  10 
ELDORADO        62  88  64  92 /   0  10  10  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   65  88  66  93 /   0  10  10  10 
RUSSELL         62  88  65  96 /  10  10  10  10 
GREAT BEND      62  86  65  96 /  10  10  10  10 
SALINA          63  89  66  94 /   0  10  10  10 
MCPHERSON       64  89  64  93 /   0  10  10  10 
COFFEYVILLE     64  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  10 
CHANUTE         64  88  64  90 /   0  10  10  10 
IOLA            63  87  64  90 /   0  10  10  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    64  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$