000 FXUS61 KILN 251148 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 648 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A TROUGH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LIGHT. WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE AROUND ONCE AGAIN. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOW 50S. SOME WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER. THE NAM DOES NOT BRING AS MUCH PRECIP AND COLD AIR INTO THE FA AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE GREATEST FORCING. TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN. MODEL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE QUICK TO MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY WITH PRECIP ENDING BY MID DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE BY SATURDAY AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. WENT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND THEN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOUTHERLY FLOW IS APPARENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL WARM TEMPS A LITTLE EACH DAY. CONVERSELY...THE WARMER AIR WILL BE MORE MOIST AND RESULT IN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER ON SUNDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 12/0Z AND 6/18Z GFS RUNS ARE IN OPPOSITION WITH EACH OTHER REGARDING MASS FIELDS THIS FAR OUT. 12/0Z RUNS APPEAR TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF AND THIS IS THE WAY TO TREND FORECAST TODAY. MODELLERS ARE SUGGESTING AN ODD BLEND NEARING THE ECMWF FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED FCST. UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER OHVLY IS SUGGESTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS THOUGHT PROCESS. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IN FACT EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE VFR DECK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO MAINTAIN VFR CEILING AT MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH CANNOT DISCOUNT POSSIBILITY OF HAVING SOME LOWER THAN 3000 FT WITH KDAY BEING THE MOST LIKELY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HAVE SOME GUSTS UP TO 23 KT TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AREA WIDE. SOME SHOWERS WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITY AT ANY ONE SITE IS LOW. AND EVEN IF THEY DO OCCUR...THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR VISIBILITIES LIKELY AND IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...NOVAK SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...