000 FXUS61 KILN 292013 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 413 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FA. AHEAD OF THIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING...WILL ALLOW FOR A 30 POP TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES SHOULD THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SOUTH COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ON SATURDAY...BUT ALL IN ALL EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE...SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A WARMING TREND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SO WENT AT OR A LITTLE BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY AND KEEPING ITS HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS TOWARD TUES AND WEDS AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...BRINGING IN WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. INCREASING 850 MB TEMPS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF KEEPING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...SO DID NOT INTRODUCE POPS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO PASS THRU THE GREAT LAKES IN THE WESTERLIES TDA/TNGT. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NW OHIO THRU EASTERN INDIANA TO PUSH EAST THRU THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IS IN PLACE THRU LATER THIS AFTN. GFS WHICH IS TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IS THEREFORE OVERDONE WITH 2500 J/KG BOUNDARY LYR CAPE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN. PREFER NAM SOLN WHICH HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL TD/S AND DEVELOPS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG. AS FRONT APPROACHES WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING COMES INTO PLAY. THIS FORCING...ALONG WITH THE INSTBY SHUD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT THIS TIME. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING TONIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WL BE A POSSIBILITY. HAVE A MENTION OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL BUT KDAY WHERE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...RYAN AVIATION...AR