000 FXUS63 KILX 051544 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK TODAY AND JUST ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS A BIT TODAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CURRENTLY FROM PEORIA NORTHWARD WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF PEORIA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH WARMEST READINGS NORTH OF LINCOLN WHERE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY. NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING LIGHT NORTH LATE TODAY. 15Z/10 AM SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL KY SW ACROSS NW AR AND CENTRAL TX. ITS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMMS HAVE EXITED SE OF LAWRENCEVILLE SOUTH OF I-64 IN SOUTERN INDIANA AND INTO KY. WEAK 1020 MB HIGH PRESURE OVER NEBRASKA WAS RIDGING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND HELPING DECREASE THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF IL BY LATE MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM WESTERN KY ESE TO ALONG THE VA/TN BORDER BY SUNSET PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SE OF IL. MEANWHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA EXPANDS INTO IL THOUGH TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH TURNING NORTH AND BECOMING LIGHTER LATE TODAY. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE SOUTHWARD THOUGH SE IL SE OF I-70 WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDIER MOST OF THE DAY. CURULE SHOWS SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL IL THIS AFTERNOON AND BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS IN SE IL. A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD OVER NORTHERN IL THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING ITS SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF CENTRAL IL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH WARMER READINGS NORTH. HUETTL && .AVIATION... ISSUED 615 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO IMPV TO MVFR BY LATE MRNG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTN ACRS ALL OF THE TAF SITES. SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLEARING SKIES WORKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS MRNG. THE BACKEDGE OF THE CLOUDS EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF MOLINE TO CHICAGO. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS/DRIZZLE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH OUT OF NE IL. FEEL THE IFR CIGS WL HOLD THRU THE MRNG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AS WELL...ESP FROM BMI AND DEC EAST. DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTH WL GRDLY ERODE THE LOWER CIGS WITH TIME LATE THIS MRNG INTO THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE ON THAT SCENARIO NOT THAT GREAT AS OUR SFC FLOW WL REMAIN FROM THE NE-N TODAY...NOT EXACTLY A GREAT DIRECTION FOR SCOURING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS MORE INTO THE NW LATER TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE IMPVG CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FROM NW TO SE. A WEAK SFC TROF WL BE EDGING SOUTH ACRS THE LOWER LAKES LATE THIS AFTN. ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FEATURE BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ACTIVITY WL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH LATE TODAY. THE NEXT CONCERN FOR TNT WL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG TO FORM WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM YSTDYS RAINS. FOR NOW WL ADD A MENTION OF FOG WITH 5SM VSBYS AFTR MIDNIGHT. SMITH && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009 LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...AND MAJORITY OF PRECIP WINDING DOWN CONSIDERABLY...WITH MERELY MIST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE. CLOUD CLEARING LINE TO THE NORTH... FROM IA/MO BORDER ACROSS THE STATE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE H5 WAVE PATTERNS... BUT DIVERGING SOMEWHAT IN THE SFC REPRESENTATIONS IN THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. AM SIDING WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT AND CONSERVATIVE ECMWF UNTIL THE GFS CAN SHOW SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ITSELF. RATHER DRY FORECAST...THOUGH IN NWRLY FLOW...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TENDENCY TO STAY THAT WAY IS LOW. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TOMORROW... CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...DRY AND TEMPS BEGINNING TO REBOUND. FORECAST PREVIOUSLY HELD POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT...THOUGH THE LATEST RUNS HAVE PULLED THE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY...THOUGH WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FUTURE CHANGES TO POSSIBILITIES OF SCT ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY. LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... A CONTINUATION AND AMPLIFICATION OF A NWRLY FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH GFS SUFFERING FROM SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES AND TRYING TO BRING PRECIP THROUGH ON TUES. BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY. OTHER THAN THAT...FIRST HALF OF WEEK IS RATHER DRY...WITH TEMPS SEASONABLE WITH 15C ON AVERAGE ALOFT AT 850MB...NWRLY FLOW OVER A RIDGE TO THE WEST KEEPING MASSIVE HEAT WAVES AT BAY...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO WARM THE SFC. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$