000 FXUS63 KILX 100825 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 225 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 225 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE STRONG UPPER LOW...WHICH CROSSED THE STATE YESTERDAY...IS NOW CENTERED IN SOUTHERN OHIO. MAIN SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWA JUST NORTH OF I-70. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 30 MPH THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CALLS TO AREA LAW ENFORCEMENT NOT YIELDING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RISING OVER MOST OF THE CWA SINCE LAST EVENING...BUT SURGE OF COLDER AIR IS NOW PUSHING IN AROUND GALESBURG AND MACOMB. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES FOR THIS PACKAGE INVOLVE AFFECTS OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY... HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DUE TO THE DIMINISHING ISSUE OF BLOWING SNOW. RUC MODEL SHOWS GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN THE NORTHEAST CWA...WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES...BUT WINDS SHOULD OVERALL DECREASE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER...THE COLDEST AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME CLOUDINESS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY HELP KEEP THE EASTERN CWA A BIT WARMER. LOWS IN THE WESTERN CWA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE...BUT MAY BE BELOW ZERO IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLD SPOTS. MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH NEAR FREEZING HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CWA. FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL APPEARS TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTING AN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CROSSING. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INDICATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...SO WILL RESTRICT MENTIONABLE POPS TO AREAS WEST OF I-55 DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE WITH SILENT 20S DURING THE NIGHT. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... ECMWF AND GFS COMING INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A SECOND UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING THE SAINT LOUIS AREA ON SUNDAY. MAIN SURFACE LOW TO PRECEDE THE UPPER LOW BY SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE TRAJECTORY SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WILL GO WITH 30 POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS DAY 5 IS A BIT FAR OUT TO BE FINE-TUNING THINGS THAT CLOSELY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER POPS SHOULD BE INCLUDED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. BEHIND THIS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING QUIET WEATHER. UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST...WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PARTICULAR CONFIGURATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1115 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 SFC TROF IS NOW MOVG SEWD THRU THE AREA...INCRSG WNDS AND TURNING THEM TO THE NW. ACCUM SNOW PRETTY MUCH DONE OVR THE CNTL IL TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BLSN THRU 15Z WED ESP FOR BMI/DEC/CMI. EXPCT 1K-2K FT STRATOCU TO GRDLY LIFT TWD 12Z...AND CLDS SHUD BCM SCT BY 18Z EVERYWHERE BUT CMI...WHERE CIGS MAY HANG ON THRU THE AFTN AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MODEL. SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AFT 15Z WED WITH WNDS AOB 10 KT BY 00Z THU. 04 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$