000
FXUS63 KIND 081631
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1130 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009


.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 08/18Z TAFS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL BE 
INCREASING AND SOUTH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP JUST 
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO PREVENT FOG DESPITE SOME HIGH NEAR SURFACE 
MOISTURE SHOWN IN THE MODEL TIME SECTIONS. AFTER 18Z...WILL START TO 
SEE AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS AT IND. MODEL TIME SECTIONS 
SUGGEST THIS COULD BE AN MVFR LYR.   

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...DOMINATE HIGH PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE CAROLINAS THIS 
MORNING AND LOW PRES WAS FOUND ACRS THE WRN PLAINS...RESULTING IN A 
WARM SW FLOW INTO INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IN THE UPPER LVLS A 
RIDGE WAS FOUND ACRS THE SERN STS...WHILE THE JET STREAMED FROM 
WESTERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TDY WL BE TEMPS AND THE NEXT BEST CHC FOR RAIN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WE WL USE A BLEND. UPPER RIDGE OVR 
THE SE STS WL BUILD ACRS INDIANA AND ANOTHER DRY PLEASANT DAY IS IN 
STORE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS ARE DRY AS ARE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. CU 
RULE IS VERY POSITIVE. THUS SUNNY SKIES TDY. WITH H8 TEMPS NEAR 13C 
WE SHOULD EASILY BEAT MAVMOS HIGHS BY 1-2 DEGREES. WL GO AOA 
PERSISTENCE GIVEN THE LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. 

RIDGE WL HOLD EVER SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR 
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME WL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS LOWS 
TONIGHT AS A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS COULD START DRIFTING IN ON WEAK 
RETURN FLOW. WL CONTINUE A INCREASING CLOUD TREND TONIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY AS TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A TOP 
DOWN TYPE OF SATURATION OCCURRING. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER 
WL AGAIN STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS AS H8 TEMPS STILL REMAIN WARM.

UPPER TROUGH BEGIN TO APPROACH INDIANA ON MON NIGHT...BUT ATTM 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR RATHER DRY IN THE LOWER LVLS AND STRONG 
RIDGES LIKE THE ONE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACRS INDIANA TDY ARE OFTEN 
SLOW TO MOVE EAST. THUS ATTM CONFIDENCE FOR PCPN ON MON NIGHT IS 
RATHER LOW. WL USE A DRY FORECAST AND CONT THE INCREASING CLOUD 
TREND...ALONG WITH TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MAVMOS.

BEST CHC FOR PCPN NOW REMAINS ON TUES AS THE QUICK MOVING UPPER 
TROUGH SWEEPS OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS. WL KEEP PCPN 
MENTION LIMITED TO TUE...WITH BEST CHCS ACRS THE NRN PARTS OF THE FA 
AS DYNAMICS ARE BEST IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE CHCS FOR RAIN AND 
CLOUDS...WL LEAN COOLER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...PUMA
AVIATION...MK