000
FXUS63 KIND 060846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EDT SUN JUL 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL RETURN.

AT LEAST SHOULD BE DRY TODAY. OBS AND MODELS SUPPORT HEIGHTS 
BUILDING BEHIND CUT OFF LOW THAT AFFECTED AREA LAST WEEK. 
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING PRECIP COULD RETURN TO 
NW CWA TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT TRIES TO FORM OVER AREA.

THIS IS PRETTY FAST DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERING HISTORY OF THIS SLOW 
MOVING WAVE. ALSO SREF WAS A BIT SLOWER THAN OTHER MODELS. I AM NOT 
GOING TO RULE OUT PRECIP ENIRELY TONIGHT...BUT WILL CONFINE IT TO A 
SLIGHT CHC NW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...FOR MONDAY DONT SEE 
HOW I CAN AVOID CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE...WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A 
DEPATURE FROM EARLIER FCST.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BE CHC POPS MOST OF THE TIME. FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOR ANYTHING THAT SURVIVES PAST 
00Z. FOR TUESDAY IN VERY HUMID AOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. MEX 
GAVE ME LIKELY MOST AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND I SEE NO REASON TO CUT 
THAT WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FROPA THEN.

TEMPERATURES ARENT RADICALLY DIFFERENT BUT TO EXTENT THEY DIFFERED I 
WENT WITH MET. SEEMED MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH WET GROUND AND ATTENDANT 
DAYTIME CU FIELDS. 

&&
.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 060600Z TAF ISSUANCE. SYNOPTIC PATTERN 
VRY FAVORABLE FOR FOG DVLPMT. XPCTG AREAS IFR/LIFR CONDS TO CONT TO 
DVLP OVERNIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDS OVR THE SRN TERMINALS WHERE 
DEWPTS ARE HIGHER. DUE TO THE SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE...IMPRVG 
CONDS XPCTD TOWARDS 061200Z...WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBYS BY 061400Z. 

LO LVL INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SUGGEST DIURNAL CLD DVLPMT BY 061500Z 
WITH BASES NR 030.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JAS
PUBLIC...KWIATKOWSKI