000 FXCA62 TJSJ 121954 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 354 PM AST MON MAY 12 2008 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FILL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS BROAD UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL STABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AND THEREFORE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS/LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINED AT A MINIMUM... AS MOSTLY HOT AND DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. && .DISCUSSION... HOT...DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT FOR MOST PART MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAN JUAN REACHED 91 DEGREES TODAY. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE...AND OVERALL DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. LOCAL UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE GFS FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTED STABLE AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO INFLUENCE ON LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AS NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS IN SIGHT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY MAY MAKE IT TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. STILL HOWEVER FORESEE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES AFFECTING THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH NEARLY NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. && .MARINE... MARINERS CAN EXPECT MOSTLY TRANQUIL SEAS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE OVER THE LOCAL OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH INCREASING SEAS AND SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 74 88 74 88 / 0 20 0 10 STT 74 83 74 83 / 0 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. && $$ 17/09/