000
FXUS63 KMKX 051946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

DRY AIR OVERSPREADING THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
WEAK SFC TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH QUIET
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. 

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
WRN NDKTA WILL TAKE A DIVE SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD COMBINE WITH AN ASSOC SFC TROF TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LLV LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP WITH
OVERALL CAPE VALUES 500-1500 J/KG /DEPENDING ON THE MODEL/. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES REBOUND FROM A MIN TONIGHT TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES
TOMORROW AFTN.

THE SHORT WAVE AND SFC TROF PUSH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEARING OR DRY WEATHER. THE NAM AND THE GFS HAVE SPENT
THE LAST 3 TO 4 RUNS GENERATING A SERIES OF MCS/S UPSTREAM WITH
THE REMAINS ROLLING ACROSS THE CWA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WE INITIALLY DIDN/T BITE ON THIS AS THE ECMWF CONTINUED TO BE DRY
AND MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE
NOW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE NEW ECMWF IS HINTING AT THIS SCENARIO.
THE NAM/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE FIRST COMPLEX...FIRING IT OVER MN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND DRIFTING IT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. NOTHING SEVERE EXPECTED AS IT WILL HAVE STABILIZED
QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME IT REACHES US AND THE SUPPORTING LLV
INFLOW WILL BE WEAKER. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE FOR SOME
THUNDER.

AS USUAL...WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUESDAY BECOMES MURKIER AS THE FIRST
ROUND WILL SURELY INFLUENCE THE PATTERN IN AN AS YET UNKNOWN
WAY. HOWEVERE...THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST WE COULD SEE A
SERIES OF EVENTS OVER 24 TO 36 HOURS AND DESERVES AN INTRODUCTION
OF POPS AT THIS POINT. THIS SETUP ALSO MEANS A CLOUDIER AND COOLER
COUPLE OF DAYS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER EASTERLY
FLOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP. HAVE TRIMMED TEMPS...BUT MORE WORK
MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FCST ISSUANCES. 

WE COULD SEE A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD AGAIN AS THESE FIRST FEW ROUNDS
PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST FOR A TIME. 
BY LATE IN THE WEEK...INTO THE WEEKEND...THE NOSE OF THE LLV JET
AND H8 THERMAL RIDGE POINT INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BE OUR NEXT ROUND OF WEATHER AND GIVEN THE HEAT AND
EXPECTED HUMIDITY...COULD BE MORE ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS 
LOST...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE LESS 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL STRUGGLE TO GO CALM. EXPECT 
CUMULUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A WEAK WAVE 
POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA IN THE 
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...VANCLEVE