000 FXUS63 KMKX 232140 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 340 PM CST MON NOV 23 2009 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN DOWN TO KANSAS IS HELPING A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN MO OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT TOWARD THE MIDWEST. STAGNANT AIR AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREATING LOW STRATUS OVER THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO THIN THE FOG A BIT. CAN/T RULE OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN...BUT NO CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE DENSE FOG WOULD OCCUR. TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CREATE AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN IL...ENHANCING THE RAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SFC LOW. HIGHEST QPF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN IL TUE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI TUE NIGHT. WEDENSDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL GIVE THE OCCLUDED AND WEAKENING SFC LOW A LITTLE EXTRA PUNCH TO PRODUCE MORE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS WI. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WRAP INTO THE CLOSED SFC LOW AND CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS HINT AT SOUTHERN WI DRYING OUT FOR A SHORT TIME WED NIGHT UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW ON THU. THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING SOUTHERN WI COULD BE COLD ENOUGH AT UPPER LEVELS TO DROP SOME SNOW EARLY THU MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A QUICK QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES. HOWEVER...GROUND AND SFC AIR TEMPS SHOULD BE MODERATE ENOUGH TO MELT THE SNOW QUICKLY. .LONG TERM...RIDGING AND DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN WI QUICKLY THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND LOOKS TO KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...STUBBORN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SIT OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH IFR TO MVFR VISBYS. MODELS NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL...SO NOT GIVING MUCH ATTENTION TO MORE OPTIMISTIC CIGS IN MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING NO REASON FOR THIS STRATUS DECK TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DO THINK THAT VISBYS WILL GO BACK DOWN TONIGHT...WITH FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO LIFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE IFR...THEN MVFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE STATE. RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY JUST SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC AVIATION/MARINE...07/DDV