000
FXUS63 KMKX 040836
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
336 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2009

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN SHOWER CHANCES TODAY...QUIET WEATHER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.
NORTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS/WARM AIR ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET NOSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TRYING TO NUDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.TODAY...AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PARAMETERS MENTIONED ABOVE STAY WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS TRY TO
MOISTEN UP THE AIR COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. 

FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...WHERE LIKELY POPS WERE GENERALLY KEPT. TO THE
NORTHEAST...DROPPED POPS OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE...AS AM NOT
CONFIDENT THAT MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH AND
EAST.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SCATTERING
OUT OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL NEAR THE
LAKE WITH A PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MET
AND MAV TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

.TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS DO SHOW A TROUGH AXIS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. PREFERRED NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY WEAK CAPE WITH
MODEST MOISTURE...SO KEPT THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...WITH LAKE
BREEZES AT TIMES DURING THE DAY. 

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH 1000/500MB
THICKNESSES RISING INTO THE MID 570S DKM RANGE. THIS WOULD BRING
WARMER AND PERHAPS MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING INITIAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BROUGHT LOW POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY...AND KEPT
POPS AS IS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE EWD TNT AND
SUN. THUS SRN WI WILL BE ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NRN IA EARLY THIS AM ARE EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT FAR SRN WI...SOUTH OF KMSN...KMKE...AND KENW. SMALL
CHANCES OF RAIN ARE STILL FCST FOR THE TAF SITES BUT ANY PCPN THAT
DOES OCCUR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND BRIEF WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. CLEARING SKIES TNT AND LGT WINDS MAY RESULT IN LOCAL
RADIATIONAL LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...20/GEHRING