000
FXUS63 KMKX 202028
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
228 PM CST THU NOV 20 2008

FORECAST FOCUSES ON A SLIGHT WARM UP FROM THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
ARE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT LATE TONIGHT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL
SHOWING 925 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -11 C AND -13 C. THIS IS IN
COMBINATION WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS ADVECTING INTO WISCONSIN
AND A LARGER POLAR HIGH OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WILDCARD WILL
BE THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF SUPERIOR...WHICH IF PERSISTENT MAY
LIMIT RADIATIVE COOLING. WENT BELOW GFS GUIDANCE WITH LOWS CLOSER
TO WHAT THE NAM PROVIDED.

FRIDAY...AS THE HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST WINDS SHOULD BACK AND
BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH HIGH WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BE VERY COLD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED DRIER AIR IN
PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

SATURDAY...PROGS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PASSING SOUTH OF CWA. 12Z PROGS
INDICATE THAT ALL OF THE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE 500 MB VORT MAX. EVEN WITH FORCING IN
PLACE...LIMITED MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM IF TRYING TO
GENERATE ANY ACCUMULATED PRECIP. IN ADDITION...WAA SHOULD BE IN
FULL EFFECT AND TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERY FLOW AND CONTINUED WAA WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE 40S ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. A
CLIPPER LIKE CLOSED LOW BECOMES A CONCERN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
REMOVED THE RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY BECAUSE LATEST PROGS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE QPF. THE ECMWF HIRES SOLUTION IS A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. AS OF NOW...WENT WITH
CHANCE FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK AND DRY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
25 KNOTS AND BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT AS STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WEAKEN BY FRIDAY 
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON FRI. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE 
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE BRISK 
NORTHWEST WINDS OVER UNSTABLE LAKE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WAVES WILL 
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL MID DAY FRIDAY WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...FRANKS/DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...BRUESKE