000
FXUS63 KMPX 080126 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
726 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009

.UPDATE...

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. DRY COLUMN IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
20S HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING.
RURAL LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAVE SEEN
TEMPS DROP 17 DEGREES BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM. OTHERWISE...ALL IS
WELL. 

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/

AREA UNDER MILD ZONAL FLOW TODAY...WITH WEAK COLD FRONT NOW WELL
SE OF CWA. VERY DRY AND MILD PAC HIGH IS SETTLING OVER SRN MN
RESULTING IN THE VERY MILD AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAIN THEME FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND A
HALF WILL BE FOR ANOMALOUSLY DEEP H5 HEIGHTS TO REMAIN OVER
ALASKA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR W TO SW FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.

FOR TONIGHT...BUMPED UP LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVED
LOWS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN THE UPPER 30S AND EXPECTED
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROUGHT NUMBERS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE. FOR RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY...12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS CONTINUE TO PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE
FOR SEEING RAINFALL. UPPER WAVE THAT WILL BE BRINGING IN RAIN
CHANCES IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PAC NW. IT IS FORECAST TO QUICK
RIDE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW...LEADING TO SOME WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE FRONT OF NEB/IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK
INTO THE AREA. FOR RAIN...CURRENT RHS IN THE LOW 20S RIGHT NOW ARE
A SIGN OF WHAT ANY RAINFALL MUST OVERCOME TOMORROW IF IT IS TO
REACH THE SFC. THE FORCING FOR THE PRECIP IS THERE...BUT ALL
RATHER WEAK...WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONGEST OVER CENTRAL MN AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO STILL BE FAIRLY DRY. TO TOP IT OFF...SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. SO...ONLY EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN HALF OF CWA...TRANSITIONING OVER
TO WEST CENT WIS IN THE EVENING. THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD BACK
TEMPERATURES FROM WHAT WAS SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS SET
IN. SO HAVE INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES...WITH
MAINLY MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED...10 AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

FOR NEXT WEEK...DRY PAC HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY. EXPECT DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH ANY CONCERNS
TURNING TO FIRE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AREA
GETS ON BACK SIDE OF HIGH AND SRLY WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE WITH
TEMPERATURES. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK WHEN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF IN THIS TIME
FRAME...NOT FEELING TO CONFIDENT IN HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...SO
BASICALLY STUCK WITH 20 POPS FOR NOW AND WILL SEE WHERE THINGS GO IN
THE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

NO AVIATION CONCERNS THRU 12Z AS WINDS WILL BECOME E/SE BY SUNRISE
AND UNTIL 6 KTS. CEILINGS WILL BE VFR AND ROUGHLY 9000' OR ABOVE.
AFT 15/18Z...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF LOWER
CEILINGS AND THE CHANCE OF -RA. PREVIOUS TAFS ONLY HAD CEILINGS AOB
8000'. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE AT LEAST AN INTRODUCTION
OF LOWER CLDS...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 2500' WITH CEILINGS AOB 4000'. 
LATER TAFS CAN REFLECT ON THIS CURRENT TREND. ..JLT..

CWSU DISCUSSION...
LATEST HPC ANALYSIS SHOWING CLD FNT EXTNDG FM LK SUPERIOR THRU 
WI/IA/SRN NE, WITH RDGG BUILDING INTO WRN ZMP. THRU THE PERIOD A WV 
WITH DEVELOP ON THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FNT NR NW KS AND MOV 
INTO CNTL IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING PSBLTY OF -RA TO SRN 
MN.

LATEST MDL RUNS SEEM TO BE BACKING OFF ON THE PCPN POTENTIAL FOR THE 
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW NIGHT. START THE TAF WITH SCT200. BRING IN BKN140 
BKN200 AFT 07Z. BY 18Z SKY COND WILL BE BKN030, AND BY 22Z BKN020 
AND WILL STAY THERE THRU TAF END. WE MAY HAVE VCSH AFT 22Z; 
OTHERWISE NO WX EXCPTD. DON'T EXPCT THE VIS TO DROP BLO P6SM. WNDS 
WILL START WESTERLY, THEN BECOME EASTERLY AFT 06Z. SPDS WILL FOLLOW 
A DIURNAL CURVE BETWEEN 3 AND 9 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/MPG/JLT