000 FXUS63 KMQT 080507 AAB AFDMQT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1207 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... /ISSUED AT 400 PM EST/ A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH MOST PLACES REACHING INTO THE 60S AND EVEN 70 IN SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS LIKE ESC/MNM. IN ADDITION VERY LOW DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN REALIZED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE WEST. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND LOW TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED ONLY PATCHY FOG MENTION SINCE AIRMASS IS SO DRY...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. WITH GRADIENT FLOW REMAINING COUPLED OVER NORTHWEST CWA LEFT FOG OUT THERE. IN ADDITION WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT LOWS TO EASILY REACH INTO THE 20S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WI BORDER WHERE THE USUAL COLD SPOTS END UP VERIFY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE KEWEENAW THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT..ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT/LOW CPDS ENTERS NORTHERN WISCONSIN PER 310K SURFACE ANALYSIS. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... MODELS SHOW SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH THE UPR GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT. UPR DIV IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR JET OVER ONTARIO AND ASSOC WEAK FGEN FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CHC POPS GOING FOR NOW WITH HIGHEST POPS EAST (40 PCT) CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING. MODELS SHOW WEAK SFC WAVE GETTING KICKED EWD MON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS/SCNTRL CANADA. KEPT ONLY LINGERING CHC POPS EAST MON MORNING ALONG EXITING SFC BOUNDARY. AS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ONLY WEAK CAA WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -2C WHICH WON'T BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT PCPN. SO...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT. MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES TUE/TUE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF AND YIELD DRY WX TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT E ON WED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRACKS E THRU CNTRL CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE STAYS WELL TO THE N OF THE AREA PER ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND GIVEN SFC RDGG HOLDING STRONG...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO WED. INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NRN PLAINS WILL WARRANT CHC POPS FOR RAIN OVER THE WEST WED NIGHT SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA ON THU. MODELS INDICATE THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT...BUT IT WILL PROPEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN PRESENCE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUED CHC POPS FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLNS BY DAY 7. THE 12Z GFS LIFTS A DEEPER WAVE AND ASSOC SFC LOW INTO THE WRN FCST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MID-LVL RDGG BUILDING IN FM THE WEST. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MORE CONSISTENCY AND RESEMBLES MORE THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEANS DECIDED TO GO ALONG WITH ITS SOLN AND KEEP SAT DRY FOR NOW. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/... SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. OTHERWISE...WITH VERY DRY AIR PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE/... STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO LAKE SUPERIOR ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST. ON SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WISCONSIN TO THE EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THIS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY EVENING AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFT EAST...EXPECT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WITH WINDS TO 25 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN...NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PEARSON LONG TERM...VOSS AVIATION...JLB MARINE...PEARSON