000 FXUS66 KMTR 101155 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA 355 AM PST WED FEB 10 2010 AMENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:15 AM PST WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM WEATHER CONCERNS. NEXT PRECIP CHANCE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LONG RANGE TRENDS LOOK DRY AND MILD. IN THE SHORT TERM...SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. TEMPS HAVE COOLED OFF THIS MORNING AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. AFTER A CHILLY START EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BEHIND YESTERDAYS LOW WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME PATCHY FOG STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SOME REPORTS OUT OF SANTA ROSA AND FOG PRODUCT INDICATING ITS DEVELOPING IN THE GREAT VALLEY AT THIS TIME. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SEEM PRETTY WEAK. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE OPTED NOT TO CHANGE THE INHERITED FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED POPS TOO MUCH. BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME WOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE NORTH BAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES FROM ABOUT THE GOLDEN GATE SOUTH ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER TO AVOID YO-YO FORECASTING LET THE CURRENT FORECAST RIDE AND WILL FINE TUNE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUFFICE TO SAY THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTY MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY RAIN OUT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. QPF TOTALS FOR THE NORTH BAY WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE WETTEST HILLS. FARTHER NORTH INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST INCLUDING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HAVE REMOVED ALL PRECIP CHANCES DURING THIS TIME WITH OVERALL TREND OF A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BLOCKING HIGH WILL KEEP STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH. 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED AT 12 C ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME READINGS INTO THE 70S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 60S FOR THE GREATER BAY AREA. 8-10 DAY MODEL ENSEMBLES IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DRY WEATHER AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...AS OF 3:55 AM PST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. EXITING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROVIDING WEAK NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ONLY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND ONSHORE BY MID-DAY FOR AREA TERMINALS. LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS VICINITY OF KSTS THROUGH 17Z BEFORE TURNING VFR AFTER 18Z. S.F.BAY SCT-BKN015 PRIOR TO 18Z BEFORE CAVU AFTER 18Z. FEW-SCT CUMULUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20Z. VICINITY OF KSFO...FEW005 AND FEW-SCT015 WITH VSBYS 5-7SM IN LIGHT FOG BECOMING CAVU AFTER 17Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 5KTS PRIOR TO 19Z...NORTHWEST 10KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VFR TONIGHT WITH NO RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...BETWEEN KSFO AND BRIDGE FEW005 AND FEW-SCT015 BUT SCT-BKN015 VICINITY OF BRIDGE. VSBYS 5-7SM IN LIGHT FOG. BECOMING CAVU AFTER 18Z AS DRYING OCCURS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. MRY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO RESTRICTIONS VSBY OR CIG. FEW-SCT005-008 AROUND THE TERMINALS UNTIL 16Z. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 8KTS PRIOR TO 19Z...NORTHWEST 5-15KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...3:15 AM WEDNESDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) WAS FRESHENED UP THIS MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED LARGE NW SWELL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WAVE WATCH DATA SUPPORTS POSSIBLE HIGH SURF EVENT PEAKING ON SATURDAY. STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY. HWO HAS MORE DETAILS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDA...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION/MARINE: GUDGEL NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO