000 FXUS61 KOKX 051859 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 259 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION SPINS AS IT SLOWLY TRAVERSES SOUTHEAST. WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH...AND OFFSHORE. WITHOUT PHASING...THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH...ENSURING DRY WEATHER. FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WEAK WIND RESULTS IN ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR... ALLOWING TEMPS TO DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. 60S IN URBAN CENTERS AND SURROUNDINGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAMILIAR WEATHER PATTERN THIS TIME FRAME AS NEXT UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...AND SPINS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AROUND IT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE AFTERNOON/EVENING INSTABILITY SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. H3 JET BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY COULD AID ANY SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SOME MOISTURE POOLING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...WILL ENSURE SCT COVERAGE DURING THE DAY/EVENING. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAK....AND NAM MOVES SFC FRONT THROUGH A BIT EARLIER ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO GFS. DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. IF THIS SCENARIO IS CORRECT (AND AM LEANING TOWARD NAM SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD)...NOT A GIVEN FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. WILL FCST CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...WITH GFS HANGING ON TO UPPER LOW STRENGTH...WHEREAS RGEM/NAM/EC OPEN UP TO AN EXITING SHORTWAVE. SFC LOW AND WEAK FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO WILL CAP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LEAN TOWARD CONSENSUS (TOWARD NAM). WEAK GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST MAY PRECLUDE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TUE AFTN. GFS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OFF NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS...LOWER TO MID 80S CITY/INTERIOR AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COAST. READINGS MAY BE A BIT COOLER WED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPPER TROF DEPARTS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEHIND IT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH A RETURN FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. HIGH TEMPS THEREFORE BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...THEN NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPS PROBABLY WARMER THAN NORMAL ON SATURDAY...THEN AROUND NORMAL ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME FEW-SCT CU AT ABOUT 5-6K FT...AND THAT WILL DISSIPATE FROM 02-05Z WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. COASTAL TERMINALS AFFECTED BY SEA BREEZES WILL HAVE WINDS GO L/V TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A WESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME L/V AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS PICK UP MON MORNING...THEN SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... MON...VFR. TUE-WED...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR IN CONVECTION. THU/FRI...VFR. && .MARINE... NO FLAGS RAISED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND MAIN CONCERN FOR MARINERS WILL BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN/EVENING EACH DAY. OTHERWISE...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED WITH REGARD TO WINDS AND SEAS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MON...AND MORE SO TUES COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BASED ON EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PW NEAR TERM...PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...MPS MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...PW