000 FXUS61 KPHI 080757 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 257 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY AND THEN A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND MOISTURE RIDING NORTH ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AT THE HIGH/LO AND MID LVL HEIGHTS OVER PA/N. THEY SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR MOVING THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WELL UP THERE COMPARED TO THIS TIME SATURDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF FROST TO SCRAPE OFF. TODAY WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SUNNY WEATHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE HANGS AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY GENERALLY IN 40S MONDAY MORNING. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... YESTERDAY MORNING COMMENTED ON THE EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF I.S. IDA COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MORNING IDA IS NOW A HURRICANE AND HAS PULLED SOME OF THE MOISTURE TOWARD IT'S CENTER AS IT INTENSIFIED TODAY. HURRICANE IDA'S CONE OF UNCERTAINTY EXTENDS NORTH TO THE GULF COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH OUR FINE WEATHER THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATES CONTINUING WITH A DRY FORECAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF IDA AND IT JUST WELL TURN OUR DRY WARM WEATHER INTO A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. AS MENTIONED...MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. BY DAYS END TUESDAY WE MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON OUR DOORSTEP && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... I'M NOT ABOUT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD BUT SAY A FEW WORDS ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALONG THE COAST, A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ON TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO TAP THE MOISTURE FROM IDA WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST STATE OF ALABAMA. PART OF THE GULF LOW WILL BE SHEARED OFF THEN REFORM OFF CAPE HATTERAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM PENNSYLVANIA DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS BRING THE LOW A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES OFF OUR COAST WHILE INTENSIFYING. THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE JUST A MARINE EVENT WITH GUSTY WINDS AT THE SHORE AND HIGH SEAS. A FEW MORE RUNS SHOULD START TO MAKE THE PICTURE CLEARER. WITH THE AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF SOME TROPICAL CONNECTION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE CAN LOOK FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING BY FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH TONIGHT, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THE FEW SC TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING OUR TAF SITES. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PREDAWN FOG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY NW OR THE PHILLY METRO AREA. OUTLOOK... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NEARBY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOWERED CEILINGS, HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. && .MARINE... WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 5 FT AT 44009 EARLY THIS MORNING AND NEVER REACHED 5 FT AT 44065. THEREFORE, WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP MOSTLY IN ITS WAKE AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND A POSSIBLE STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS ENERGY FROM HURRICANE IDA, CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN, MAY OR MAY NOT GET INVOLVED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT IDA COULD GET STUCK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY, I INCREASED WAVE HEIGHTS A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WENT NOWHERE NEAR THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH FUTURE COMPUTER RUNS. ONCE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE THE EAST OR NORTHEAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EBERWINE NEAR TERM...EBERWINE SHORT TERM...EBERWINE LONG TERM...EBERWINE/MEOLA AVIATION...RPW MARINE...RPW