000
FXUS65 KPSR 080303
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
805 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS. SOMEWHAT 
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK THAT 
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO 
BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING 
THE LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 
DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH 
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF FAST MOVING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES MAINLY NORTH OF AZ THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
AS A RESULT...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. ATMOSPHERIC 
HEIGHT AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN USUAL RESULTING 
IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT DRY FORECASTS LOOK OK...NO UPDATES PLANNED. 
PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW STILL APPLY.

PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE DRY AND VERY WEAK SOUTHERN END OF A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE WEST OVER OUR AREA 
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING 
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR 
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER MONDAY COMPARED WITH 
SUNDAY...AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 DEGREES HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES 
REACH A PEAK. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDINESS IN A FLOW ALOFT FROM THE 
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING 
THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING 
PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE 
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK. SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO 
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP 
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE DESERT AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM GENERALLY LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE DRY IN TERMS OF 
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. THUS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLAGSTAFF
AND TUCSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...WE HAVE SINGLE DIGIT 
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE 
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AT 
LEAST FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.

&&

.AVIATION...
KPHX...KIWA...KIPL...AND KBLH...
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS AT LEAST THROUGH 
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COMPARED WITH MONDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 DEGREES
HIGHER TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH A PEAK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS 
AND A DAY TO DAY COOLING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. 
SOME INCREASE IN BREEZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID NOVEMBER BY 
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE 
DESERT AREAS.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ/
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS