000 FXUS65 KPUB 060929 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 329 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2008 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) CURRENTLY...THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SCT SHWRS OVR THE PALMER DVD. ADDITIONAL SHWRS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVR THE CENTRAL AND SWRN MTS...AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH UT AND SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BRING A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BROKEN HIGH CIGS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE HIGH SIDE THUS FAR...WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S BEING NOTED OVR THE PLAINS AS OF 09Z. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM W TO E DURING THE DAY TODAY. LEFT CHANCE POPS INTACT OVR THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 06Z GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS WET...BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS THRU THIS EVE. WITH CLOUD COVERAGE UP AND TEMPS ALOFT DOWN A FEW DEGREES...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS FROM 5-10 DEGREES LOWER TODAY OVR THE PLAINS...AND A BIT COOLER OVR THE MTS/HI VLLYS AS WELL. MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH OVR THE PLAINS AROUND 00Z...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. SVR CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO NERN CO WITH BETTER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SVR OR TWO ESPECIALLY OVER EL PASO...CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES LATER TODAY. COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BY MID EVE...BUT EXPECT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH WX AGAIN ON THE WARM SIDE. ROSE .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) A SHRTWV TROF WL MOVE ACRS THE AREA ON MON WHICH SHOULD HELP KICK OFF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AND SCT POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. TEMPS ON MON LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. THE SHRTWV TROF WL BE SLOW EXITING THE AREA AND WE COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS INTO TUE MORNING. THE GFS DEVELOPS AN MCS OVR ERN CO MON NIGHT AND IF THIS IS CORRECT WE COULD SEE SOME GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS. ON TUE THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WL BE UPSLOPE OVR THE SERN PLAINS. THERE WL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA THAT WE SHOULD SEE ISOLD PCPN DEVELOP MOST AREAS...BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE ALONG AND NR THE SERN MTS. TEMPS TUE SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MON. THE GFS KEEPS PCPN IN THE FORECAST TUE NIGHT...WHILE THE NAM ENDS IT BY LATE NIGHT. WL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS TO BLEND WITH SURROUNDING AREAS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WL CONTINUE FOR WED WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING OVR THE SERN PLAINS. TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE FOUND OVR MUCH OF THE AREA WED...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVR AND NR THE MTS. LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES ON THU AND FRI...BUT SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LOWER AND PCPN CHANCES MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER. TEMPS WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. SAT A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SERN PLAINS...WHILE A SHRTWV TROF MOVES INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. PCPN CHANCES SAT MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ON THU AND FRI...ESPECIALLY OVR THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS. && .AVIATION... WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AT ALL TAF SITES. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVR THE PALMER DVD AND KCOS...WHERE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT FROM A SRLY TO NRLY DIRECTION OVR THE ERN PLAINS AROUND 00Z...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM NERN CO. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 44/28