000 FXUS65 KPUB 051053 AFDPUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 453 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) ...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE... ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE THERE AGAIN TODAY...DEEP MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND TRIGGERS. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EVEN AT THIS LATE HOUR...WITH THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRACKING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FREMONT COUNTY AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY. A FEW LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE COLORADO SPRINGS AIRPORT AND CUCHARA RAWS...RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO...AMOUNTS WERE PLENTIFUL AND THE GROUND WAS SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. MODEL GENERATED SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY ARE REFLECTIVE OF WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. THAT IS...CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE READILY...WITH LITTLE CIN TO OVERCOME. THE 06Z NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AT KCOS AND KPUB INDICATE THE 1ST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE BY AROUND 10 AM. AFTER THAT...IT LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL FIRE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. THE FACT THAT STORMS WILL FIRE FREQUENTLY...WITH LITTLE CIN TO OVERCOME...SHOULD PREVENT CAPES FROM BECOMING TOO HIGH AT ANY ONE TIME...THUS REDUCING THE SEVERE THREAT. ALSO...SHEARS ARE MARGINAL AT BEST MOST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES DO EDGE UP FROM 20-30 KNOTS MOST OF THE DAY TO MORE LIKE 30-40 KNOTS BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS AND...THUS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY INCLUDE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND FLOODING. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...LCLS WILL BE LOW...AND THE TRANSFER OF RAIN TO THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY TYPICALLY DO. MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THIS TO BE THE CASE EXCEPT FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT STRAGGLERS. LW .LONG TERM... (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE DESERT SW ON MONDAY...BUT IS SITUATED SUCH THAT COLORADO IS STILL ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS MEANS NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORECAST UPPER DISTURBANCE TO INTERACT WITH RESIDUAL LLVL MOISTURE MON AFTN AND EVE. AT THIS TIME CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED...THOUGH NAM SUGGESTS AROUND 1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR RIGHT ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND IF ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION IS REALIZED...ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR EAST IS POSSIBLE. TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE EXTENDED SOLUTION. SIMPLY PUT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FIRMLY OVER AZ...NM AND TX...KEEPING COLORADO UNDER VERY WARM SW FLOW ALOFT THRU FRI. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED POPS FOR THE MTS TUE AFTN AND EVE...BUT DRIED OUT ALL AREAS FOR WED AND THEN ISOLATED POPS FOR THE MTS ONCE AGAIN STARTING THU. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL PUSHING 100 DEG TEMPS FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY TUE THRU FRI. ON SAT THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT SLIGHTLY... INCREASING THE CHANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ROLLING ACROSS WY AND CO. MOORE && .AVIATION... AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND POOR VSBYS IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION. PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTNING...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH DIAMETER...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCAL FLOODING. CONVECTIVE WINDOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE 16Z-04Z...WITH A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OUTSIDE OF THAT WINDOW. LW && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 50/27