000 FXUS63 KSGF 061126 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 626 AM CDT SUN JUL 6 2008 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS/CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TUESDAY...AND ALSO WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. CURRENTLY...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHORT LIVED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IS VERY SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WARM CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 20S CWA WIDE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE WESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY SEE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S. STILL FEEL THE GFS MOS VALUES ARE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO IT NOT ACCOUNTING FOR THE VERY MOIST AND GREEN GROUNDS. WITH THIS PACKAGE HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM MOS VALUES FOR HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE LEAVING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CAP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS TYPE OF AIRMASS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE. TODAY HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO WARSAW LINE. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TO SEE IF IT WILL HAVE ANY IMPACTS ON THE AREA TODAY. WITH ITS VERY SLOW MOVEMENT IT WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT HOLD TOGETHER THAT LONG AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE CWA TODAY AS IT WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IT TO SEE IF IT DEVELOPS ANY KIND OF VORT MAX THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD INITIATE CONVECTION. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY...DUE TO THERE BEING NO APPARENT TRIGGERS TO INITIATE STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE VERY ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATION REMAINING DRY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKE REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH I LIKE DUE TO THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS EVOLVING SLOWER THAN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING HOURS...THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS BORDER...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. IT SHOULD NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. WISE && .AVIATION... FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...FOG WELL EAST OF THE SGF/JLN AERODROMES OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND. SCT CU DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND ISO TSRA ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY MENTIONED CB IN THE SGF TAF AT THIS TIME. ANY TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. GAGAN && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ057-058- 070-071-082-083-097-098-106. KS...NONE. && $$