000
FXUS63 KSGF 052005
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A CHILLY JULY DAY IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A COOLER AIRMASS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY...WITH UPPER 60S
TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WITH A COOLER AIRMASS AND CLEAR SKIES...TEMPERATURE SHOULD COOL
INTO THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 50S. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US. 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES WARMING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.

THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE ARE NO GREAT
SIGNALS FOR RAINFALL...BUT WITH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEVELOPING AN MCS
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA AND IT TRACKING INTO THE AREA. HAVE NOT
INCLUDED POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS SMALL SCALE FEATURES
WILL DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK AND THOSE ARE STILL UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AREA
WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY RIDING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

WISE

&&

.AVIATION...

A SOLID DECK OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AVERAGE CEILINGS BETWEEN 1.5
AND 2.0 KFT AGL. THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT VERTICAL EXTENT TO
THIS STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE OZARK
PLATEAU...SO EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS DECK IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT RIGHT AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE MVFR FOG FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$