000
FXUS63 KSGF 101130
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
530 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS/FLURRIES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VLY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOCAL
PRESSURE RISES CONTINUING ON THE 275-285K ISENTROPIC SFC IN THE
WAKE OF THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM. WILL WATCH TRENDS...BUT WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CARRY CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...AT
LEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA. SFC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
FROM DAKOTAS/MN SOUTH TO EAST TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
MO LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY THU. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL REACH AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH...BUT
THAT ABOUT ALL. LOOKS LIKE ONLY LIMITED SNOW MELT TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG NEAR AREA LAKES
WHERE THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT THE OVERALL DRY AIR MASS
WOULD SEEM TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL.

UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL SWING SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN BAJA THEN EAST INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY THU EVENING. LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWFA...BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP OVER ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER
THU AFT/EVE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IN THE NW UPPER FLOW
PATTERN MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP FRI
AFT/EVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CWFA. 

A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AND THROUGH MO. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONCERNING TRACK AND TIMING...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT FASTER AND
FARTHER SOUTH-WEST WITH THE TRACK. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE
SNEAKY WITH A BAND OF SNOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE
THERE WILL BE SOME INTENSE LIFT...PRECEDED BY A PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN-EASTERN CWA. FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS TO BE A FAST
MOVER...AND GIVEN WHERE IT IS NOW...STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE
ON THE TRACK AND TIMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY BENIGN NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW PATTERN WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER A COLD START TO
THE WEEK. DSA


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS. LOW STRATUS...WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING EAST WILL IMPACT THE OZARKS THIS MORNING IN THE FORM
OF A MVFR CEILING AT TIMES. THE AREA SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BE
MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES EAST. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$