000
FXUS63 KSGF 081054
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE DEALS WITH WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TODAY...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. 

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
MILD CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY
MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED WINDS TO DECREASE. THIS GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN
TODAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE
THAT WERE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH PERSISTENCE
FOR HIGHS TODAY. DID CUT A DEGREE OR TWO OUT WEST...AS THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER 925MB AND 850MB TEMPERATURES. ALSO A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH
EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES THOUGH. NEVERTHELESS A VERY WARM DAY IS
ON TAP AS HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA
WIDE...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY APPROACH RECORDS SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS WILL
PUSH EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. OUR AREA WILL OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
DRY AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL
NOT REALLY BE ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES...HOWEVER THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THERE. HAVE DOUBTS IF
THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCES GOING
THERE.

BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLY RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND THOUGH THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY.

WISE


&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER KS TONIGHT.
THIS MAY RESULT IN LOWER CLOUD COVERAGE FLIRTING WITH JLN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE.

GAGAN

&&

.CLIMATE...

HIGHS TODAY WILL APPROACH RECORD LEVELS. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS FOR NOVEMBER 8TH.

LOCATION       FORECAST HIGH   RECORD HIGH      YEAR 
SPRINGFIELD        76             80         2006/1980
JOPLIN             77             83         2006/1980
WEST PLAINS        77             81           1975
VICHY/ROLLA        78             79           2005

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$