000
FXUS63 KTOP 052026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2009

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS ROCKIES...WITH WNLY FLOW 
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
OVER NEBRASKA WILL BUILD ESEWD INTO ERN KS OVERNIGHT. SCT 
CU/STRATOCU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND 
DECENT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN 
LOW-LYING AREAS TONIGHT.  HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EWD DURING MONDAY WITH 
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SLY/SELY BY AFTERNOON.  LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE 
CLOSE TO CURRENT DEWPOINTS...PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 60S.  WITH 
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY...HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER 80S.

60

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A 5H RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY 
AMPLIFY OVER NM AND EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 
EASTERN KS WILL BE UNDER WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. 
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA 
ON TUESDAY AS A LEE SFC TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 
LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT 
INDICES MAY INCREASE ABOVE A 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE 
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THERE WILL BE MCS'S DEVELOPING DURING 
THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL 
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NE AND KS DURING THE NIGHT. 
THE MCS'S SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BUT I SUPPOSE 
THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME LEFT OVER 
RAINSHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE. I KEPT POPS BELOW 14 PERCENT...SINCE IT 
IS MORE OF A MESOSCALE FORECAST PROCESS TO WHERE THESE MCS'S WILL 
DEVELOP DEVELOP...TRACK AND EVOLVE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE 5H RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 
90S ACROSS THE CWA. THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN 
KANSAS AS WELL. AS A RESULT HEAT INDICES MAY RISE ABOVE ADVISORY 
CRITERIA. A 5H TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ROUND THE 
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE 5H TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND AMPLIFY. 
THIS WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KS 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A 
FEW DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL 
POOL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING SFC DEWPOINT 
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. HIGHS SATURDAY 
AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S BUT HEAT INDICES MAY 
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES.

GARGAN 

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVIOUS TAFS HAD GOOD FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF
TONIGHT. HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT LIGHT FOG CHANCES AT MHK AND TOP
WITH RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS TONIGHT FORECAST TO FALL TO AT OR
BELOW MINIMUM AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR FOG
GROUP. AS HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE MORNING.

60

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$