000
FXUS63 KUNR 080234
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
734 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED FCST TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLD -SHRA ACRS
SCNTRL SD THROUGH THE NIGHT. KUNR 00Z SOUNDING DOES SHOW SOME
MINIMAL INSTABILITY ABOVE 700MB...AND WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE
EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT SOME ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP FROM THE NEB
PANHANDLE THROUGH SCNTRL SD. EVEN THOUGH AMS IS QUITE DRY...THERE
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF SPRINKLES (AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE WEST
OF WHITE RIVER). REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH STILL A POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW -SHRA ACRS NWRN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM MST SAT NOV 7 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE MAP PLACES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH WEAK TROF ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING.
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ND ON SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK LIFT/MARGINAL QPF ACROSS NW SD TONIGHT...SO
WILL LEAVE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WARMER ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. 

EXTENDED...MAINLY DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE 
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER THE AREA. 
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. NEXT CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT UPPER 
TROF DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL GFS DIFFERS FROM 
ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND LATEST EC WITH TIMING OF THIS TROF. OP GFS 
BRINGS TROF THROUGH MUCH EARLIER...WHILE OTHER SOLNS KEEP RIDGING 
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL SIDE WITH SLOWER 
SOLN FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR AVERAGE LATE 
IN THE WEEK.

&&

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$
JOHNSON