SW Kansas Drought Page

Southwest Kansas Drought Page

Last Updated March 23, 2013

This page will be updated approximately once a month or as conditions warrant.

SW Kansas Drought Summary:Minor improvement in drought conditions across SW Kansas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center.

Drought Outlook Through April:
Regional Temperature Summary:
For the month of April: For April, there is a 40-50% chance of temperatures in the warmest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology for much of lower Michigan as well as southwest Kansas and southern Colorado, with a 17-27% chance for temperatures in the coldest third and a 33% chance for temperatures in the middle third. Elsewhere in areas south and east of a line from the U.P. of Michigan through central Illinois and across the Kansas/Nebraska border to northern Colorado, there is a 33-40% chance of temperatures in the warmest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology, with a 27-33% chance for temperatures in the coldest third and a 33% chance for temperatures in the middle third. Equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures are forecast elsewhere in the central U.S.
Looking at the 90-day outlook period: For April through June, there is a 50-60% chance for temperatures in the warmest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology across the southern half of Kansas and Colorado, with a 7-17% chance for temperatures in the coldest third and a 33% chance for temperatures in the middle third. Elsewhere south of a line from northern Michigan through northern Iowa and northern Nebraska to the Colorado/Wyoming border, there is a 40-50% chance for temperatures in the warmest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology, with a 17-27% chance for temperatures in the coldest third and a 33% chance for temperatures in the middle third. Elsewhere south of a line from the U.P. of Michigan through southern Minnesota and northern South Dakota to northern Wyoming, there is a 33-40% chance of temperatures in the warmest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology, with a 27-33% chance for temperatures in the coldest third and a 33% chance for temperatures in the middle third. There is a 33-40% chance of temperatures in the coldest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology in northern North Dakota, with a 27-33% chance of temperatures in the warmest third and a 33% chance of temperatures in the middle third. Equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures are forecast in a band between those two regions in the north central U.S.

Regional precipitation summary:
For the month of April: For April, there is a 40-50% chance of precipitation in the wettest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology for much of Michigan and Wisconsin into eastern Minnesota, with a 17-27% chance for precipitation in the driest third and a 33% chance for precipitation in the middle third. Elsewhere in areas north and east of a line from the Dakotas through central Iowa and along the Mississippi River valley in Missouri toward the Ohio River valley, there is a 33-40% chance of precipitation in the wettest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology, with a 27-33% chance for precipitation in the driest third and a 33% chance for precipitation in the middle third. There is a 33-40% chance for precipitation in the driest third compared to 1981-2010 climatology across much of Colorado into southwest Wyoming, with a 27-33% chance for precipitation in the wettest third and a 33% chance for precipitation in the middle third. Equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures are forecast elsewhere in the central U.S.
Looking at the 90-day outlook period: Equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures are forecast elsewhere in the central U.S.

Regional Drought Summary:
Much of the region is in extreme or exceptional drought conditions.

El Nino/Southern Oscillation Information:
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east equatorial Pacific have reflected below-average conditions over the past month, with weakening anomalies recently. All of the weekly SST departures in the Niño regions ranged between -0.4 ºC in the Niño 4 region to +0.5 ºC across the Niño 1+2 region as of March 15th, and the last three-monthly SST anomaly in Niño 3.4 was -0.6 ºC in December through February. SST anomalies have trended toward a positive change in the eastern Pacific and negative in the west-central Pacific. Positive sub-surface SST anomalies have expanded eastward. In general, the oceanic and atmospheric anomalies recently noted all reflect cool, ENSO-neutral conditions.

CPC ENSO Box & Whisker Analysis:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php
El Nino and La Nina-Related Winter Features over North America:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/composites/EC_LNT_index.shtml
Winter Composites:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml

Climatological Summary:So far, March was dominated by near normal temperatures and below normal precipitation, except across south central Kansas. Average month temperatures anomalies were +1.0F at Garden City, -0.50F at Dodge City, and -3.2F at Medicine Lodge. Precipitation departures for the same sites were: -0.87 inches, -0.95 inches, and 0.58 inches.

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National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office