Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
000 FXUS63 KDDC 170722 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 222 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN WITH QUIET WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 00Z OBS SHOW NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING WITH THE HUGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. SFC PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK BOUNDARY WAS ENTERING NORTHERN KANSAS AROUND 06 TO 07Z, SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE CWA BY MORNING, AND WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT, WINDS SHOULD BE UP IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOT MUCH DOWNSLOPE, BUT PLENTY OF SUN AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S C SHOULD HELP OUR HIGHS GET INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT, AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH EVEN WITH CLEAR SKIES. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE LOW 50S WE HAVE GOING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE, WITH A LEE TROUGH GETTING GOING AGAIN BY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND 850MB TEMPS WILL GET WELL INTO THE 20S C. DO NOT THINK WE WILL HAVE MUCH TROUBLE GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND EVEN SOME LOW 90S FOR HIGHS. THE SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT, LEAVING THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING OFF TOO MUCH, SO BUMPED UP READINGS A BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. DAYS 3-7... CAN SEE VERY LITTLE REASON TO ADJUST THE EXTENDED. CURRENT GRIDS AND FORECAST SEEM ON TRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST EXTENDED MODELS. THE LATEST ECMWF PLACES THE DRY LINE A TAD FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ON LATE WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW SEEM THE BEST SOLUTION. BETWEEN NOW AND LATE WEDNESDAY A LOT CAN CHANGE IN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. ONE THING SEEMS CLEAR WITH ALL MODELS...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THEN NOT MOVE TOO FAST. SHORT WAVES WILL BE EJECTED EASTWARD FROM THIS LARGER TROUGH AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG ANY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THE UPPER WAVES CROSS...AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RESULTING...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF DDC`S CWA. AVIATION... ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 83 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 82 51 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 82 55 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 84 53 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 84 54 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 P28 86 55 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN26/12/12
