Summer 2002 was the 11th Hottest Summer Across Metro Detroit and the 7th Hottest and 8th Driest Summer in Flint

Written by: William R. Deedler, Weather Historian

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SUMMER 2002 OVERVIEW

THE SUMMER OF 2002 WILL BE REMEMBERED AS A HOT AND HUMID SUMMER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN FACT, WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 73.46, THE SUMMER OF 2002 BECAME THE 11TH HOTTEST SUMMER IN 132 YEARS IN METRO DETROIT. AND, WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 71.66, IT WAS THE 7TH HOTTEST SUMMER IN 60 YEARS (SINCE OFFICIAL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1942) IN THE FLINT AREA. IT WAS, HOWEVER, A BIT COOLER FURTHER NORTH IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY REGION. SAGINAW'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 70.33 DID NOT EVEN PLACE IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST SUMMERS.

ACTUALLY ONE DOES NOT HAVE TO VENTURE BACK TOO FAR TO FIND THE LAST TIME ALL THREE CITIES PLACED IN THE TOP TEN WARMEST SUMMERS, WHICH WAS IN 1995 (CHART-1) IN THE SUMMER OF 1995, DETROIT PLACED FIRST, FLINT PLACED SIXTH AND SAGINAW PLACED FOURTH. SAGINAW WAS THE LONE CITY TO PLACE IN THE TOP TEN IN 1998. FLINT WAS THE LONE CITY TO PLACE IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST SUMMERS LAST SUMMER (15TH WARMEST WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69.73-NOT ON THE CHART).

                                    CHART-1
               __________________________________________________

               TOP 12 WARMEST SUMMERS IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN 
                      DETROIT(1870) FLINT(1942)    SAGINAW(1900)  
                      WARMEST       WARMEST        WARMEST 
               -------------------------------------------------- 
               RANK  TEMP  YEAR    TEMP  YEAR     TEMP YEAR 
               1-    74.50 1995    72.53 1952     73.07 1931 
               2-    74.43 1955    72.33 1949     73.03 1933 
               3-    74.20 1988    71.87 1955     72.40 1955 
               4-    74.00 1933    71.83 1988     72.23 1995 
               5-    73.80 1949    71.73 1987     72.07 1930 
               6-    73.67 1921    71.70 1995     72.07 1921 
               7-    73.57 1991   *71.66 2002     72.03 1988 
               8-    73.57 1952    71.53 1983     71.93 1937 
               9-    73.50 1959    71.50 1943     71.87 1936 
               10-   73.50 1931    71.30 1944     71.70 1998 
              *11-   73.46 2002    70.47 1991     71.53 1934
               12-   73.17 1944    70.47 1953     71.53 1932    
                                               **(70.33)2002

* SUMMER OF 2002 RANKING  ** DID NOT PLACE EVEN IN THE TOP 20 WARMEST


THE NUMBER OF NINETY DEGREES OR HIGHER DAYS WERE PLENTIFUL DURING
THE SUMMER OF 2002 /JUN-SEP12*/ AS EVIDENCED BY THE FOLLOWING: 
(CHART-2)
                      CHART-2

         DETROIT       FLINT       SAGINAW
           90S+         90S+         90S+
---------------------------------------------
JUNE        6            5            5 
JULY       12           13            7
AUGUST      3            2            0
SEPTEMBER   4 (9/12)     4  (9/12)    1 (9/12)
---------------------------------------------
2002       25           24           13

RECORD:
1988       39           36          N/A

LAST TIME A YEAR WAS AS HOT OR HOTTER:
1995       20           12          N/A  

WHILE 1988 HOLDS THE RECORD FOR NUMBER OF DAYS OF 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER DAYS (SAGINAW IS NOT AVAILABLE), THE SUMMER OF 1995 WAS THE LAST TIME THE SUMMER RESEMBLED THIS PAST SUMMER FOR HEAT (BUT IT ACTUALLY WAS A BIT HOTTER AT ALL THREE CITIES). IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT IN EVEN IN THE HOTTER SUMMER OF 1995, NEITHER DETROIT NOR FLINT HAD AS MANY 90S+ AS THIS YEAR. IN ADDITION, IN 1988 AT DETROIT, A WHOPPING 39 DAYS RECORDED 90S+ BUT THE SUMMER STILL AVERAGED A BIT COOLER THAN IN 1995 (*NOTE THAT THE NUMBER OF 90S+ DO NOT NECESSARILY HAVE TO FALL IN THE SUMMER MONTHS OF JUN-AUG LIKE THE REST OF THE SUMMER DATA AND THE 2002 DATA GOES THROUGH 9/12).

WHILE THERE WAS A GENEROUS HELPING OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS PAST SUMMER IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, MOTHER NATURE WAS MORE STINGY WHEN IT CAME TO RAINFALL. EVEN DESPITE SOME HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS, OVERALL IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN, IT WAS A DRY SUMMER. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS DETROIT'S NORTHERN SUBURBS AND FLINT (WHERE THE LARGEST RAINFALL DEFICITS WERE NOTED) AND EXTENDED NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE THUMB AND SAGINAW VALLEY. THE FLINT AREA HAD THE 8TH DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD /TIED WITH 1944/ AND WAS THE ONLY CITY OF THE THREE TO MAKE THE TOP 20 DRIEST SUMMERS LIST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO TOP 20 DRIEST SUMMERS LIST FOR DETROIT'S NORTHERN SUBURBS...THIS PAST SUMMER WAS CERTAINLY ONE OF THE DRIER ONES. WHAT MAKES THIS EVEN MORE APPARENT IS THAT IT COMES ON THE BACK OF A NEARLY IDENTICAL (AS FAR AS RAINFALL AT WHITE LAKE) DRY SUMMER LAST YEAR /2001/. LAST SUMMER'S TOTAL RAINFALL WAS 6.63; THIS SUMMER'S, 6.61 INCHES. WHAT MAKES THESE TWO SUMMER FIGURES EVEN MORE DRAMATIC IS WHEN ONE COMPARES THEM TO THE SUMMER OF 2000. THE TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE SUMMER OF 2000 WAS A WHOPPING 17.07 INCHES AT WHITE LAKE, MORE THAN TWO AND A HALF TIMES THIS (OR LAST) SUMMER'S RAINFALL TOTAL, AND STILL ABOUT ONE AND A THIRD TIMES HIGHER THAN THE TWO SUMMERS PUT TOGETHER! IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SUMMER OF 1999 WAS ALSO WET WITH 14.96 INCHES FALLING AT WHITE LAKE. THIS CLEARLY DEMONSTRATES THE "FEAST OR FAMINE" SCENARIO WHEN IT COMES TO SUMMER RAINFALL. RESIDENTS FAMILIAR WITH THE INLAND LAKES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF DETROIT CAN SURELY ATTEST TO THESE RECENT DRAMATIC RAINFALL CONTRASTS, AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS.

THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE SPRING ABATED DRAMATICALLY IN MID JUNE, WHEN HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE PUT A HALT TO ANY ROUTINE RAINFALL AND STARTED A NOTABLE DRY SPELL THAT TOOK HOLD OF THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A MONTH. SOME AREAS ACTUALLY REACHED MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS FOR A TIME BY MID-LATE JULY.

Long Term Palmer Drought Severity Index -- Click to enlarge A SECOND ONGOING DRY SPELL (current data) WHICH COMMENCED MID AUGUST CONTINUES AS OF THIS WRITING (SEP 12). AN IN-HOUSE STUDY PERTAINING TO NOTABLE DRY SPELLS (AT LEAST 2-4 WEEKS WITH .50 OR LESS OF RAIN) IN METRO DETROIT AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE SUMMER-EARLY FALL PERIOD SUGGESTED THAT THE CHANCES OF TWO NOTABLE DRY SPELLS OCCURRING IN A SUMMER IS ABOUT 33%. IN ADDITION, THE CLASSIC TIME FOR THE SECOND DRY SPELL TO OCCUR IS RIGHT WHERE IT DID, MID AUGUST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. IT WAS ALSO IN THAT SAME PERIOD /MID AUG-EARLY SEP/ THAT WE HAD THE BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY SPELL IN THE OVERALL SUMMER.

WITH THE PREDOMINANT DRY WEATHER, SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WERE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND WERE FOCUSED JUST BEFORE THE FIRST DRY PERIOD /MID JUNE/ AND THEN BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND DRY SPELL /MID JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST/. THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST, ONLY 84 SEVERE WEATHER WARTNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. SINCE 1995, THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS FOR THE REGION DURING A TYPICAL SEASON HAS BEEN 128 (REMEMBER THOUGH, THIS INCLUDES THE WHOLE YEAR AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE MORE WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE YEAR'S END).

DATA RESEARCHED FOR PREVIOUS SUMMERS

AS FORECASTED LATE SPRING BY THE CLIMATIC PREDICTION CENTER, A WEAK EL NINO DID INDEED CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN THE PACIFIC DURING THE SUMMER. IT WAS STATED OUR SUMMER OUTLOOK, HOWEVER, THAT THE WEAK EL NINO WOULD LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN. IN THE SUMMER OUTLOOK, SEVERAL OF THE SUMMERS THAT FOLLOWED THE WINTER SEASONS PREVIOUSLY STUDIED FOR THE WINTER 2001-02 OUTLOOK WERE USED. IN ADDITION, THREE OTHER NEUTRAL TO WEAK EL NINO SUMMERS, 1953, 1957, AND 1997, WERE INCLUDED. THE MAJORITY OF SUMMER SEASONS IN THE STUDY CONTAINED SIMILAR EVOLVING WEAK EL NINO TIMINGS AND SOLAR ACTIVITY, BUT NOT ALL. THE OVERALL PRECEDING WINTER AND SPRING WEATHER TRENDS (UPPER WIND FLOW AND SURFACE) WERE CONSIDERED WHEN EVALUATING THE FOLLOWING SUMMERS.

IN ADDITION, THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION /EPO/ AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ WERE CHECKED FOR TRENDS SEEN THIS PREVIOUS WINTER /2001-02/ AND SPRING /2002/, AND THEN CORRELATED TO THE RESEARCHED SUMMERS. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION THAT WAS MADE WAS THE RELATIVELY WET SPRING MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EXPERIENCED. THIS WAS MAINLY BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE PERSISTENT STORM TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. AGAIN, THIS STORM TRACK DID, HOWEVER, ABATE BY MID JUNE WHEN THE NOTABLE DRY SPELL TOOK HOLD OF THE REGION.

COLD MAY--SUMMER INDICATOR?

ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING (AND SOMEWHAT SURPRISING) DATA REVIEWED WAS THE COLDEST MAY DATA AND THE SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS. LAST MAY WAS INDEED IN THE TOP 20 COLDEST (IN FACT, UP UNTIL THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF MAY, THE MONTH HOVERED AROUND THE THIRD COLDEST MAY IN DETROIT, SECOND COLDEST IN FLINT AND THE COLDEST MAY IN SAGINAW). A WARM SPELL LATE IN THE MONTH RESULTED IN DETROIT "WARMING" TO THE 16TH COLDEST MAY, FLINT THE 11TH COLDEST AND SAGINAW THE 12TH COLDEST MAY. THEREFORE, THE PREVIOUS TOP 20 COLDEST MAYS IN DETROIT AND THEIR SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS WERE RESEARCHED TO SEE IF THERE WAS MUCH OF A CORRELATION BETWEEN A COLD MAY AND COOL SUMMER. AND, WHILE THE DATA SUGGESTED THERE WAS A DECENT CHANCE A COOL SUMMER WOULD FOLLOW OUR COLD MAY (OUT OF THE 20 COLDEST MAYS IN DETROIT, 16 SUBSEQUENT SUMMERS AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL), THIS CERTAINLY WAS NOT THE CASE THIS PAST SUMMER. IT MUST BE NOTED (AND ALSO MENTIONED IN THE COLDEST MAY RESEARCH) THAT A BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR ANY MAY DID NOT SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL SUMMER, SINCE ONLY THE TOP 20 COLDEST MAYS WERE CHECKED.

ONE ITEM, HOWEVER, NOTED IN THE MAY DATA THAT DID COME TO PASS WAS THE FOLLOWING:

"THIS DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT WHEN RESEARCHING THE TOP 20 COOL MAYS ONLY, THE COOL LATE SPRING PATTERN BASICALLY TENDED TO "HANG AROUND" INTO, AT LEAST, EARLY SUMMER."

AS WAS THE CASE THIS SUMMER, TEMPERATURES AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID JUNE BEFORE MOTHER NATURE TURNED ON THE HEAT AND TURNED OFF THE WATER.

SUMMER RESULTS AND COMPARISONS

THE FOLLOWING (CHART-3) REPRESENTS THE SUMMERS RESEARCHED (ALL PREVIOUS SUMMER DATA IS FROM DETROIT WHICH HAS THE LARGEST DATA BASE).

                           CHART-3

SUMMER - DETROIT                                                         
YEAR          JUNE         JULY         AUGUST             SUMMER
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            TEMP/PRECIP  TEMP/PRECIP   TEMP/PRECIP        TEMP/PRECIP
1881        64.4/5.90    74.6/3.33     74.2/1.32      +/- 71.1/10.55 +
1896        67.9/6.97    71.4/5.39     70.3/4.60        - 69.9/16.96 +
1931 *      69.6/2.27    77.6/1.81     73.3/ .84        + 73.5/ 4.92 -
1953 *      70.9/3.09    73.5/2.65     74.3/1.52        + 72.9/ 7.26 -
1957        68.7/3.23    72.8/5.98     70.2/1.99        - 70.6/11.20 +
1982        64.2/4.11    72.4/4.78     67.7/ .72        - 68.1/ 9.61 +/-
1991 *      72.4/1.89    74.9/1.23     73.4/4.31        + 73.6/ 7.43 -
1997        69.5/3.17    72.2/2.62     68.1/3.22        - 69.9/ 9.01 -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
2002:
DETROIT     70.8/1.07    76.6/3.50     73.0/3.32        + 73.5/ 7.89 -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLINT       69.2/1.48    75.0/3.63     70.8/1.51        + 71.7/ 6.62 -
SAGINAW     68.3/3.15    73.7/2.16     69.0/2.10        + 70.3/ 7.41 -
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
1971-2000
NORMALS: 
DETROIT     69.0/3.55    73.5/3.16     71.8/3.10          71.4/9.81
FLINT       66.2/3.07    70.6/3.17     68.5/3.43          68.4/9.67
SAGINAW     66.8/3.06    71.2/2.50     68.7/3.38          68.9/8.94
_____________________________________________________________________

*   SUMMER YEARS THAT CORRELATED WELL 

+   ABOVE NORMAL
-   BELOW NORMAL
+/- NORMAL (WITHIN .5 DEGREE OR .50 PRECIPITATION)

ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS THAT STRIKES THE OBSERVER WHEN LOOKING AT THE ABOVE SUMMER RESULTS IS HOW SIMILAR THE THREE * SUMMERS IN THE RESEARCH LOOKED TO OUR PAST SUMMER. IN ADDITION, ALL THREE SUMMERS HAD A SIMILAR MILD WINTER LIKE OUR PAST WINTER. THE FOLLOWING WAS STATED IN THE PREVIOUSLY RELEASED SUMMER OUTLOOK:

"REVIEWING PAST WINTERS IN THE LIST, 1930-(1931), AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 1990-(1991) AND 1952-(1953) ALL RESEMBLED THIS PAST WINTER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES (AND THOUGH NONE WERE AS WARM, THE WINTER OF 1952-53 DID PLACE IN AT 8TH WARMEST AS OPPOSED TO LAST WINTERS 5TH PLACE). IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE--THE SUMMERS (1931/1953/1991) THAT FOLLOWED THESE ABOVE THREE WINTERS WERE BASICALLY WARM AND SOMEWHAT DRY."

WELL, ONE MORE CAN BE ADDED TO THAT LIST, THE SUMMER OF 2002. WHEN EXAMINING THE SUMMER STATISTICS CLOSER, ONE CAN SEE HOW REMARKABLY SIMILAR THE SUMMERS OF 1931, 1991 AND 2002 WERE. THE SUMMER OF '31 TIED OUR 2002 AVERAGE /73.5/ AND RANKS RIGHT NEXT TO THIS PAST SUMMER IN THE WARMEST SUMMERS. ALSO, EVEN THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE PATTERN OF 1931 WAS REFLECTED WELL IN THIS SUMMERS PATTERN. IN THE CASE OF 1991, CHECK OUT THE SUMMER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, THE NUMBER OF 90S+ THAT SUMMER AND THE RAINFALL (SEE BELOW) AND THE SUMMER OF '91 IS NEARLY A DEAD RINGER TO THIS PAST SUMMER.

DETROIT
SUMMER TEMP/90S+/PRECIP    
2002:  73.5/ 25  7.89
1991:  73.6/ 24  7.43 
1953:  72.9/ 21  7.26
1931:  73.5/ 31  4.92

AND THE SIMILARITY DID NOT STOP THERE

AS WAS NOTED WHILE DOING THIS RESEARCH, WHEN WE DID HAVE A HOT SUMMER IN THE STUDY, IT TENDED TO BE DRY. ALL THREE HOT SUMMERS WERE ALSO DRY (OR BELOW NORMAL /9.81/ RAINFALL). THIS STANDS TO REASON SOMEWHAT, AS A INCREASINGLY DRIER SOIL DOES HELP PROMOTE WARMER AIR TEMPERATURES (THOUGH WARM AND WET SUMMERS ARE NOT UNCOMMON EITHER; IT IS JUST THAT IN THESE PARTICULAR RESEARCHED SUMMERS, THE HOT SUMMERS ALSO TURNED OUT TO BE DRY). IT ALSO MUST NOTED THAT METRO AIRPORT'S HIGHER RAINFALL (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) TOTAL WAS MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE. IN FACT, OVER TWO INCHES OF IT FELL IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. HERE AT THE NWS AT WHITE LAKE, THE SUMMER RAINFALL WAS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO FLINT /6.62/ AS OPPOSED TO WHITE LAKE'S 6.61 (OR BETTER THAN TWO INCHES BELOW DETROIT METRO AIRPORT).

WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER WARNING STATISTICS ARE AVAILABLE FOR 1931 AND 1953, THERE ARE FOR 1991. DURING THAT YEAR, IT TOO WAS A RATHER LIGHT YEAR FOR WARNINGS WITH 94 WARNINGS ISSUED (AGAIN WHEN COMPARED TO THE AVERAGE OF 128 SINCE 1995). IN THE "HOT SUMMER" /1995/, ONLY 86 WEATHER WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR THE AREA. IN THE LAST EL NINO SUMMER OF 1997, IT WAS A RATHER SLIM YEAR FOR WARNINGS TOO WITH JUST 89 WARNINGS ISSUED (81 OF THOSE IN THE SUMMER). THE COMMON THREAD HERE IS THEY WERE ALL EL NINO SUMMERS (1995 WAS AT THE TAIL END OF AN EL NINO RATHER THAN THE BEGINNING AND THEREFORE WAS NOT USED IN THIS SUMMER STUDY). SINCE THIS IS SUCH A SMALL SAMPLE OF SUMMERS, NO DEFINITE CONCLUSION CAN BE DRAWN BETWEEN AN EL NINO SUMMER AND FEWER SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS.

SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN TO 1930-31 AND 1952-53 CONTINUES:

THE WINTER OF 1930-31 LIKE OUR PAST WINTER WAS ONE OF THE WARMEST /19TH/ ON RECORD. AND, THE SPRING OF 1931 NEARLY MIRRORED OUR PAST SPRING WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL SPRING AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 47.0 DEGREES (AND JUST 0.6 OF A DEGREE DIFFERENT FROM THIS PAST SPRING /46.4/). AND OF COURSE, OUR JUST COMPLETED SUMMER AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 73.5 DID IN FACT MIRROR THE SUMMER OF 1931 /73.5/. IT WAS ALSO NOTED THAT A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE PATTERN SET UP FROM THE WINTER OF 1952-53 (8TH WARMEST), TO A COOLER THAN NORMAL SPRING (AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 47.3), TO ANOTHER WARM SUMMER (14TH WARMEST) WITH AN AVERAGE OF 72.9 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE SAME PERIOD IN 1990-91 DID NOT FOLLOW THIS EXACT TREND SINCE WE HAD A MUCH WARMER SPRING /52.9/ (QUITE THE CONTRARY TO THIS PAST SPRING; IT WAS THE WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD IN DETROIT).

THE FOLLOWING AUTUMNS BREED CURIOSITY

SINCE THE TEMPERATURE CYCLE TRENDS OF BOTH LATE 1930 - MID 1931 AND LATE 1952 - MID 1953 RESEMBLE OUR PAST NINE MONTH TEMPERATURE CYCLE (AND WE WILL INCLUDE 1991 JUST FOR ITS WINTER AND NEARLY DUPLICATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE CYCLE), SOME VERY INTERESTING TRENDS ABOUT THE FOLLOWING FALLS ARISE. ALL DATA AGAIN IS BASED ON THE LONGEST CLIMATE BASE, DETROIT (BUT NOTES ABOUT FLINT AND SAGINAW ARE INCLUDED FOR INTERESTS).

DETROIT
SEASON TEMP/DEPART PRECIP/DEPART NOTEWORTHY OBSERVATIONS
FALL '31 58.4/+6.2 8.96/ +0.80 WARMEST FALL IN HISTORY AT DETROIT (WARMEST FALL ALSO IN SAGINAW/FLINT...NEAR NORM RAINFALL IN FLINT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AT SAGINAW)
FALL '53 55.3/+3.1 3.26/ -4.90 7TH WARMEST/3RD DRIEST FALL IN DETROIT (10TH WARMEST/2ND DRIEST AT FLINT AND 19TH WARMEST/DRY FALL...JUST MISSED TOP 20 DRIEST IN SAGINAW)
FALL '91 (BUT LESS NINE MONTH SYMMETRY)
  52.1/-0.1 7.65/ -0.51 NEAR NORMAL-SLIGHTLY BELOW FALL TEMPS/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIP ENTIRE AREA

AUTUMN OUTLOOK

THERE WERE INDEED SOME NOTEWORTHY WARM FALLS IN 1931 AND 1953, WHILE RAINFALL AVERAGED AROUND NORMAL TO BELOW (ESPECIALLY IN 1953). THEREFORE, THE FALL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER OF THE SUMMER COULD CONCEIVABLY CONTINUE INTO THE FALL WITH NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. WE SHALL SEE.

THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FALL OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN CALLS FOR AN EQUAL CHANCE OF THE FALL TEMPERATURES BEING ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL, AND ALSO AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

LOOK FOR THE AUTUMN SUMMARY IN EARLY DECEMBER.


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