NOUS43 KDTX 152209
PNSDTX
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004
WHAT HAPPENED TO SUMMER????
SUMMER 2004 UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
WRITTEN BY: WILLIAM R. DEEDLER, WEATHER HISTORIAN
AUG 15TH, 2004
EVERY PLACE THE WEATHERMAN GOES TODAY IN MICHIGAN HE IS BEING ASKED:
WHAT HAPPENED TO SUMMER? IS IT EVER GOING TO WARM UP? WHAT A WEIRD
SUMMER WE ARE (ARE NOT) HAVING, WHAT GIVES?
WHILE JUNE AND JULY AVERAGED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL...
NEITHER HOLDS A CANDLE TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF AUGUST. UP THROUGH THE 14TH IN
AUGUST...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN (SEE CHART -1 BELOW).
CHART-1
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2004 WHERE THIS AUGUST
LOCATION NORMAL THRU RANKS SO FAR
AUGUST 14TH
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DETROIT 73.1 67.9/-5.2 13TH COOLEST/TIES
WITH 1979 (IN SUMMER
OUTLOOK STUDY)
FLINT 69.9 65.0/-4.9 2ND COOLEST/TIES WITH
1997
SAGINAW 70.3 65.4/-4.9 8TH COOLEST/TIES WITH
1946
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WHAT HAS MADE THIS COOL WEATHER EVEN MORE IRONIC AND INCREDIBLE IS
ITS TIMING...THE BULK COMING WHEN NORMALLY...OUR WARMEST WEATHER
HISTORICALLY OCCURS. IN THE LAST THREE WEEKS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALMOST CONSISTENTLY AVERAGED BELOW OR WELL BELOW NORMAL (SEE A
MORE EXTENSIVE WRITE UP ON THIS IN OUR SUMMER REVIEW DUE IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER...ALONG WITH A FALL PREVIEW).
A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD DOMINATED EASTERN CANADA
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE SUMMER WAS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER
NORTH LATER THIS SUMMER. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...IN FACT...IF ANYTHING
IT RECENTLY (PAST THREE WEEKS) HAS BECOME UNUSUALLY MORE INTENSE AND
DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH!
THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS STRENGTH WAS A MAJOR CONCERN
BACK IN MAY (AND STATED SO IN OUR SUMMER OUTLOOK) AND STILL REMAINS
A MAJOR FACTOR IN MID AUGUST.
NOTE THE FOLLOWING FROM THAT SUMMER OUTLOOK...
"WHILE THE DATA REVIEWED IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT
BE INTERMITTENT COOL PERIODS DURING THE SUMMER AS THE UPPER WIND FLOW
OCCASIONALLY BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
THE PERSISTENTLY COOL AND AGGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT CONTINUES
TO HOLD OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ONLY SOME WEAKENING LIKELY".
TO MANY...THE SUMMER OF 2004 HAS BEEN VERY PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLY
COOL WITH GENERALLY AMPLE RAIN (THOUGH SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST
AREAS SO FAR). THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN GOOD (AT LEAST UP UNTIL
AUGUST...ANYWAY). SOME OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AND STATE TOURISM
FACILITIES...HOWEVER...MAY DIFFER ON THE VIEW THAT THE SUMMER HAS
BEEN PLEASANT...WITH ALL THE COOL WEATHER.
WELL, ARE THINGS GOING TO CHANGE?
WHILE LATEST MODEL TRENDS DO INDICATE A WARMING TREND EARLY-MID
WEEK/AUG 16-19TH/...ANOTHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. NOTICE THE WORD
TEMPORARILY WAS USED AS THIS COOLER BLAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
TRANSITORY IN NATURE. OUR EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
AUGUST (AFTER WEEKEND OF THE 21ST-22ND) ARE INDICATING A WARMING
TREND WITH NORMAL TO POSSIBLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
WE SHALL SEE.
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