NOUS43 KDTX 152209
PNSDTX

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

                   WHAT HAPPENED TO SUMMER????
         SUMMER 2004 UPDATE FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN  
         WRITTEN BY: WILLIAM R. DEEDLER, WEATHER HISTORIAN    
                          AUG 15TH, 2004

EVERY PLACE THE WEATHERMAN GOES TODAY IN MICHIGAN HE IS BEING ASKED:
WHAT HAPPENED TO SUMMER? IS IT EVER GOING TO WARM UP? WHAT A WEIRD
SUMMER WE ARE (ARE NOT) HAVING, WHAT GIVES? 

WHILE JUNE AND JULY AVERAGED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN NORMAL... 
NEITHER HOLDS A CANDLE TO THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE 
EXPERIENCED THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF AUGUST. UP THROUGH THE 14TH IN 
AUGUST...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN (SEE CHART -1 BELOW).

                                CHART-1
___________________________________________________________________ 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 2004          WHERE THIS AUGUST
LOCATION  NORMAL THRU                          RANKS SO FAR
          AUGUST 14TH          
____________________________________________________________________ 
 
DETROIT     73.1               67.9/-5.2       13TH COOLEST/TIES
                                               WITH 1979 (IN SUMMER
                                               OUTLOOK STUDY)     
                                              
FLINT       69.9               65.0/-4.9       2ND COOLEST/TIES WITH
                                               1997
 
SAGINAW     70.3               65.4/-4.9       8TH COOLEST/TIES WITH
                                               1946 
____________________________________________________________________ 
____________________________________________________________________ 
 
WHAT HAS MADE THIS COOL WEATHER EVEN MORE IRONIC AND INCREDIBLE IS
ITS TIMING...THE BULK COMING WHEN NORMALLY...OUR WARMEST WEATHER
HISTORICALLY OCCURS. IN THE LAST THREE WEEKS...TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALMOST CONSISTENTLY AVERAGED BELOW OR WELL BELOW NORMAL (SEE A
MORE EXTENSIVE WRITE UP ON THIS IN OUR SUMMER REVIEW DUE IN EARLY
SEPTEMBER...ALONG WITH A FALL PREVIEW).

A STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD DOMINATED EASTERN CANADA 
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE SUMMER WAS EXPECTED TO LIFT FURTHER 
NORTH LATER THIS SUMMER. THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...IN FACT...IF ANYTHING
IT RECENTLY (PAST THREE WEEKS) HAS BECOME UNUSUALLY MORE INTENSE AND 
DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH!

THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS STRENGTH WAS A MAJOR CONCERN 
BACK IN MAY (AND STATED SO IN OUR SUMMER OUTLOOK) AND STILL REMAINS 
A MAJOR FACTOR IN MID AUGUST.

NOTE THE FOLLOWING FROM THAT SUMMER OUTLOOK...                      
                                
"WHILE THE DATA REVIEWED IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO 
AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THERE WILL NOT
BE INTERMITTENT COOL PERIODS DURING THE SUMMER AS THE UPPER WIND FLOW 
OCCASIONALLY BACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT, OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS 
THE PERSISTENTLY COOL AND AGGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN THAT CONTINUES 
TO HOLD OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH ONLY SOME WEAKENING LIKELY".

TO MANY...THE SUMMER OF 2004 HAS BEEN VERY PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLY
COOL WITH GENERALLY AMPLE RAIN (THOUGH SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL IN MOST 
AREAS SO FAR). THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN GOOD (AT LEAST UP UNTIL 
AUGUST...ANYWAY).  SOME OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AND STATE TOURISM 
FACILITIES...HOWEVER...MAY DIFFER ON THE VIEW THAT THE SUMMER HAS 
BEEN PLEASANT...WITH ALL THE COOL WEATHER.

WELL, ARE THINGS GOING TO CHANGE? 

WHILE LATEST MODEL TRENDS DO INDICATE A WARMING TREND EARLY-MID 
WEEK/AUG 16-19TH/...ANOTHER VIGOROUS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH 
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL 
TEMPORARILY DROP TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. NOTICE THE WORD 
TEMPORARILY WAS USED AS THIS COOLER BLAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE 
TRANSITORY IN NATURE. OUR EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
AUGUST (AFTER WEEKEND OF THE 21ST-22ND) ARE INDICATING A WARMING 
TREND WITH NORMAL TO POSSIBLY EVEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
WE SHALL SEE.









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