ZCZC ARBPNSDTX
ABUS34 KDTX 301557
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1000 AM EDT MON APR 30 2001
...WINTER OF 2000-2001 IN SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...THE FINAL TALLY...
LAST OCTOBER WHEN THE WINTER OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...THERE WAS SUBSTANTIAL EVIDENCE THAT THE WINTER WOULD
BEHAVE MORE LIKE SOME OF THE HARDER WINTERS OF THE 70S AND 80S. IN
HOUSE STUDIES INDICATED THE WINTER WAS EXPECTED TO SET IN EARLIER
AND HARDER THAN IN RECENT WINTERS. IN ADDITION...THERE WERE ALSO
INDICATIONS THE WORST OF THE WINTER (SNOW AND COLD) WOULD LIKELY
OCCUR EARLY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A NOTABLE MILD SPELL IN THE MID TO LATE
WINTER TIME FRAME...BEFORE WINTER'S "LAST HURRAH" (SO TO SPEAK) FROM
LATE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING.
IN THE END...TEMPERATURES WERE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND NORMAL
(WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO) BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS MONTH TO
MONTH AND SOMETIMES...WEEK TO WEEK. SNOWFALL WAS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND NORMAL (OR WITHIN 5 INCHES) TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION FALLING EARLY IN THE SEASON.
TABLE-1: SHOWS THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURES/SNOWFALL AND DEPARTURES FOR
THE WINTER OF 2000-01. TEMPERATURES AVERAGES FOR THE WINTER
SEASON ARE DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY...WHILE THE SNOWFALL
SEASON RUNS THE LENGTH OF OCCURRENCE.
______________________________________________________________________
-AVE TEMP/DEPARTURE- -SNOWFALL/DEPARTURE-
MTH DETROIT FLINT SAGINAW DETROIT FLINT SAGINAW
----------------------------------------------------------------------
OCT T/ -0.2 T/ -0.2
NOV 1.3/ -1.6 2.2/ -1.6 6.4/*
DEC 19.3/-9.0 16.6/-10.6 17.2/-9.0 25.1/+15.1 35.3/+25.7 40.3/*
JAN 26.2/+3.3 24.9/ +3.4 24.7/+4.1 3.4/ -7.1 5.1/ -6.7 7.0/*
FEB 29.7/+4.3 27.1/ +3.6 25.5/+3.0 2.9/ -6.3 5.0/ -4.9 8.0/*
MAR 5.4/ -1.4 3.8/ -3.7 5.5/*
APR .9/ -0.8 2.0/ -0.4 .6/*
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AVE 25.1/-0.5 22.9/ -1.2 22.5/-0.7 39.0/ -2.2 53.4/ +8.3 67.8/+21.8
______________________________________________________________________
BELOW IN TABLE-2:
(1) THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TOTAL SNOWFALL OF STUDIED WINTERS.
(2) THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF THOSE COMBINED WINTERS.
(3) THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TOTAL SNOWFALL OF THIS PAST WINTER.
(4) THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE BETWEEN THIS PAST WINTER AND WINTERS
STUDIED.
(5) THE 30 YEAR TEMPERATURE NORMALS AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL.
(6) THE TEMPERATURE/SNOWFALL OF WINTER 2000-01 RELATIVE TO NORMAL OR
AVERAGE.
* MONTHLY BREAKDOWN FOR AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS NOT AVAILABLE FOR SAGINAW
BUT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO FLINT.
___________________________________________________________________
(1)
WINTER -AVE TEMP- -SNOWFALL-
SEASON DETROIT FLINT SAGINAW DETROIT FLINT SAGINAW
-------------------------------------------------------------------
1903-04 18.7 15.1 16.2 57.0 45.0 47.8
1917-18 19.9 15.6 16.6 38.4 37.5 49.4
1929-30 27.9 25.6 25.8 66.5 63.4 57.0
1956-57 28.9 25.5 24.6 45.6 31.3 33.0
1971-72 27.2 25.6 24.2 29.0 52.1 55.5
1974-75 28.1 28.1 27.8 63.1 82.9 45.4
1981-82 21.9 20.9 20.3 74.0 62.2 43.4
1085-86 23.6 21.4 21.6 54.2 53.3 50.6
1989-90 27.4 24.9 24.3 41.8 55.4 61.7
-------------------------------------------------------------------
(2)
WINTERS
AVERAGED: 24.8 22.5 22.4
(3)
2000-01 25.1 22.9 22.5 39.0 53.4 67.8
(4)
DEPARTURE +0.3 +0.4 +0.1
(5)
WINTER
NORMS: 25.6 24.1 23.2 AVE: 41.2 45.1 46.0
(6)
DEPARTURE -0.5 -1.2 -0.7 -2.2 +8.3 +21.8
___________________________________________________________________
WINTER 2000-01 EPILOGUE:
THE WINTER DID INDEED START OUT EARLY AND HARD. BY THE TIME DECEMBER
WAS HISTORY...MANY LOCATIONS HAD ALREADY RECEIVED MUCH OF THEIR
ENTIRE NORMAL WINTER SNOWFALL. TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY...IT WAS
EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WITH SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AVERAGING ABOUT
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN DECEMBER. SEVERAL SNOW AND COLD RECORDS
WERE SHATTERED AS IT WAS UNUSUAL TO SEE SUCH INTENSE COLD COMBINED
WITH SUCH HEAVY SNOWFALLS. BY THE HOLIDAY SEASON...SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN RESEMBLED AN ARCTIC WASTELAND AT TIMES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
IN DECEMBER EXTENDED FROM THE ANN ARBOR AREA INTO DETROIT'S NORTHERN
SUBURBS...NORTHWARD ACROSS FLINT AND PORT HURON INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB REGION. SAGINAW HAD THE HONORS WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTAL FOR
DECEMBER OF THE THREE CITIES (DETROIT/FLINT/SAGINAW) WITH 40.3 INCHES.
HERE AT THE NWS IN WHITE LAKE...HOWEVER...WE CAME CLOSE TO THAT WITH
38.8 INCHES. THIS AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL REFLECTED THE DOMINANT
STORM TRACK WELL...WHICH RODE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL STORMS TRACKED EITHER OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN OR NORTHERN OHIO. ALL THREE OF THE EXPECTED STORM TRACKS WERE
QUITE ACTIVE IN DECEMBER...WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPERS AND TEXAS LOWS
BEING THE MOST DOMINANT. AS THESE LOWS CHARGED ACROSS THE COUNTRY...
THE CLIPPERS BROUGHT WAVE AFTER WAVE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR...WHILE THE
TEXAS LOWS SUPPLIED THE BULK OF THE SNOW.
BY MID JANUARY...HOWEVER...THE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN BASICALLY DID
AN ABOUT-FACE AS COMPARATIVELY MUCH MILDER AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER
SET IN. TEMPERATURES AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL AND SNOWFALL BELOW NORMAL
RIGHT THROUGH FEBRUARY. DETROIT AND FLINT BOTH MADE EITHER THE TOP
TWENTY SNOWLESS AND/OR DRIEST LISTS IN BOTH MONTHS WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING ABOUT HALF THE USUAL SNOWFALL. AS WAS NOTED IN SEVERAL OF THE
STUDIED WINTERS...THE ACTIVE STORM TRACKS OF EARLY WINTER BECAME MORE
INTERMITTENT AND MOVED FURTHER NORTH AS THE JET STREAM BECAME MORE
ZONAL AND ONLY OCCASIONALLY BUCKLED...BRINGING COLD AND/OR SNOW TO THE
REGION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CHANGE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MILDER TREND
NOTED AT SOME POINT MID-LATE WINTER IN SEVERAL OF THE EXAMINED WINTERS.
ITS LENGTH AND TIMING DID VARY SOMEWHAT...WHICH WAS STATED IN THE WINTER
OUTLOOK.
AS WINTER WANED...COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DID RETURN TO THE
REGION IN MARCH BUT SNOWFALL REMAINED BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FROM
FLINT NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY/THUMB REGION. THE STORM TRACK DID
SHIFT SOUTH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES MAINLY FROM
MID MARCH INTO EARLY APRIL. THE LAST OF THE POLAR BLASTS AND SNOW
WERE OBSERVED IN MID APRIL AS WINTER FINALLY CONCEDED TO SPRING.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED HERE THAT WHILE DETROIT METRO AIRPORT'S SEASONAL
SNOWFALL CAME IN A FEW INCHES UNDER THE AVERAGE...NEARLY ALL OTHER
AREAS (INCLUDING SEVERAL COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS) IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN HAD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN DECEMBER.
COMPARING THIS PAST WINTER TO THE PREVIOUS WINTERS...
THE WINTER OF 1989-90 RESEMBLED THIS PAST WINTER OVERALL THE CLOSEST WITH
A VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURE TREND AND SEASONAL SNOWFALL. DECEMBER 1989 TOO
WAS EXTREMELY COLD...WHILE JANUARY AND FEBRUARY 1990 WERE QUITE MILD...
PARTICULARLY JANUARY. DECEMBER OF 1903...1917 AND 1985 WERE ALL ALSO
VERY COLD. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE 1989-90 WINTER SEASON ALSO JIVED WELL
WITH THIS PAST WINTER IN BOTH AMOUNTS AND DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE CITIES.
DURING THE WINTER OF 1989-90...THE HEAVIEST SNOW ALSO FELL ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION SOUTH INTO FLINT...WITH GRADUALLY LESSER
AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. THIS SNOWFALL PATTERN ALSO REFLECTS TO A LARGE
EXTENT THE STORM TRACKS SEEN THAT WINTER AND THIS PAST WINTER. THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE WAS THAT DECEMBER 1989 WAS NOT NEARLY AS STORMY OR SNOWY AS
DECEMBER 2000. AS FAR AS STORMY AND SNOWY DECEMBERS...DECEMBER 1929 AND
1974...ALONG WITH DECEMBER 2000...RANK UP THERE AT/OR NEAR THE TOP
FOR SNOWIEST DECEMBERS. OTHER RELATIVELY SNOWY DECEMBERS IN THE GROUP
INCLUDE...1981 AND 1985.
WHILE THIS PAST JANUARY AND FEBRUARY WERE MILDER THAN NORMAL...NONE
OF THE THREE CITIES PLACED IN THE TOP TEN MILDEST FOR EITHER MONTH.
BUT IN JANUARY OF 1990 AND FEBRUARY 0F 1930....ALL CITIES PLACED IN THE
TOP FIVE FOR WARMEST IN BOTH MONTHS.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FACT THAT SURFACED AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES WAS HOW
CLOSE THIS PAST WINTER'S AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RESEMBLED THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OF ALL THE WINTERS COMBINED (SEE NUMBERS 2...3 AND 4).
ALL CITIES PLACED IN AT LESS THAN A HALF DEGREE DEPARTURE TO THE PAST
WINTERS COMBINED AVERAGE.
DEEDLER
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