Chances for a White Christmas?

Will we have a white Christmas? It is one of the big questions asked every holiday season. The graphics and table below were created from historical data from NOAA'S National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). It reflects the chance, or probability, of a white Christmas based on data from past years. A white Christmas is defined as having 1 inch or more of snow on the ground. The graphics provide a general sense of the likelihood of a white Christmas over the entire county and the Midwest. They are based on the full period of record for a station, which in some cases could extend as far back as the 1800s. For a specific location in eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, or extreme northeast Missouri, refer to the table. The table is based only on data from 1971-2000. Thus, there may be slight differences between what the graphic depicts and the probability for a specific city or town.

national probability of a white Christmas

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Expanded view of the Midwest from the graphic above. Color key is the same as in the national map.

regional probability of a white Christmas

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Station
# of days with snow on the ground
Christmas (1971-2000)
Probability of a
white Christmas (%)
Moline - QC Airport
11
37
Freeport
16
53
Galva
14
47
Geneseo
11
37
Illinois City
12
40
Kewanee
9
30
La Harpe
13
43
Morrison
16
53
Mount Carroll
15
50
Walnut
9
30
Cedar Rapids - Marion
14
47
Dubuque
16
53
Bellevue
20
67
Burlington
9
30
Clinton
16
53
Cascade
17
57
Columbus Junction
14
47
Fairfield
9
30
Iowa City
14
47
Keokuk
6
20
Keosauqua
6
20
Muscatine
12
40
Washington
9
30
Williamsburg
11
37
Memphis, Missouri
3
10
Illinois stations shaded in gray, Iowa stations in light blue. 
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