Figure 1: Snow Water Equivalent Image (Courtesy of NOHRSC)
Figure 2: USGS Current Streamflow Analysis
Figure 3: 90 Day Percentage of Mean Precipitation Analysis (Courtesy of Midwest Climate Center)
Figure 4: U.S. Drought Monitor
Figure 5: Soil Moisture Anomaly (mm)
Figure 6: 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
Figure 7: 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
Figure 8: Three Month Temperature Outlook
Figure 9: Three Month Precipitation Outlook

 
...2nd Spring Flood and Hydrologic Outlook - Issued Thursday, March 6, 2014...
Highlights for eastern Iowa, northwestern Illinois, and far northeastern Missouri:
  •  Elevated risk of spring flooding for the Rock River and Pecatonica River in northwest Illinois.
  • Above normal spring flood risk for the Mississippi River from near Dubuque, Iowa downstream to Burlington, Iowa. Close to normal spring flood risk from near Keokuk, Iowa downstream to Gregory Landing, Missouri.
  • Generally near normal spring flood potential for the eastern Iowa and northeastern Missouri tributary rivers.
Current conditions as of March 6, 2014:
  • No significant change in hydrologic conditions since the first outlook issued February 20th.
  • Above to well above normal snowfall has been experienced this winter, however the liquid water content of the snow cover has not been significantly above normal.
    • The exception is northern Illinois where the snow water equivalent of the remaining snow cover is well above normal for this time of year.
  • Below normal soil moisture conditions were in place entering the winter season and remain below normal.
  • Near to below normal stream levels entering the winter season and continue in early March.
  • Significant frost depths of 2 to 3 feet have resulted from below normal temperatures this winter. The deeply frozen soils will be a factor to watch as snowmelt and rainfall on frozen ground will runoff quickly.
Important factors to watch as the spring season approaches:
  • How fast or slow the spring thaw occurs will determine how much of the snowmelt will work its way into the soil
    • If there is a rapid warm-up, the significant frost depth could interfere with the absorption of snowmelt and rainfall and increase the rate of runoff.
    • If there is a period of slow and prolonged warming temperatures, a greater amount of the snowmelt would infiltrate the soil, aid in the thawing process, and improve the soil moisture deficits.
  • Future precipitation (snowfall and rainfall, amounts and timing)
  • Potential for ice jam flooding during the thaw period given the thick ice cover.
 
This is the last of two scheduled Spring Flood and Hydrologic Outlooks for the season. Updates may be issued depending on changes in weather and hydrologic conditions. Otherwise the routine long-range probabilistic outlooks will resume near the end of each month throughout the year. 

Also, check out the graphical view of the outlooks on the Experimental Long-Range River Flood Risk page.

 

Snow Water EquivalentCurrent Snow Water Equivalent

Streamflow AnalysisUSGS Stream Analysis

  90 Day Precipitation DeparturePrecipitation 90 Day Percentage of Mean

 U.S. Drought MonitorU.S. Drought Monitor

Current Soil Moisture AnomalyCurrent Soil Moisture Anomaly

8-14 Day Temp Outlook8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

8-14 Day Precip Outlook8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook

3 Month Temp Outlook3 Month Temperature Outlook

3 Month Precip Outlook3 Month Precipitation Outlook

 

 

 

Additional Outlook Information from the NWS North Central River Forecast Center

River and streamflow information:

Flood safety and flood insurance information:

Precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture information:


Flood Category definitions:

  • Minor Flooding - minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience.
  • Moderate Flooding - some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations may be necessary.
  • Major Flooding - extensive inundation of structures and both primary and secondary roads. Usually significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.  

 

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