Kansas and Missouri
...Winter Weather Awareness...
 
 
   

 

Probabilistic Winter Climate Outlook for Eastern Kansas and Missouri 2011-12

The 2011-12 winter season is just about upon us, and it is a good time to look at the probabilistic climate outlook for the area this winter. Broad area temperature and precipitation probabilities issued by the Climate Prediction Center are shown below. These outlooks comprise the probability shift away from the climatological average for large areas, and are not necessarily valid for any given point, nor are a definitive predictor for the actual temperature that will be experienced in the upcoming winter season (defined as December-January-February). These are probabilistic, not deterministic outlooks.

   

 (click on image for larger version)  

(click on image for larger version)

                                             



 Probability temperature forecast for individual cities across the area can be found at the Local Three Month Temperature Outlook page. Below are examples of local probabilistic temperature forecasts for Kansas City.

Temperature probability for MCI for Winter 2010-11 Probability of exceedance for MCI Winter 2010-11
 (click on image for larger version) 
(click on image for larger version)

                                                

 

 

 


 

 

Previous Moderate-Strong La Nina Winters

Year

DJF Average
Temperature

DJF Total
Precipitation

DJF Total
 Snowfall

2007-08

28.4

6.98

23.1

1999-2000

36.1

4.85

10.9

1998-99***

34.5

5.20

10.4

1988-89***

31.9

2.42

6.8

1975-76

34.7

3.22

13.2

1973-74***

29.7

4.76

13.1

1970-71***

32.7

4.11

13.1

1964-65

32.0

5.89

18.1

1955-56

31.4

2.32

20.4

1954-55

33.6

6.13

13.2

1949-50

34.3

3.86

5.3

       

Mdt-Stg La Nina
 Winter Average

32.7

4.52

13.4

       

1971-2000 Winter
Climatology

30.4

4.10

15.1

Red/Green = Above Average    Black = Near Average    Blue/Brown = Below Average

*** Best Analog year matches

For more information on climate forecasts and prediction across Kansas and Missouri, as well as the United States, please visit our Climate Prediction section of our website. And for historical climate data pertaining to numerous cities across eastern Kansas and Missouri, please visit the NOWData section of our website.

 

 


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